Tuesday closed one storyline and opened another: New York completed a historic sweep of top-seeded Minnesota, the first time a No. 1 seed has lost a first-round series since the format began in 2022, while Caitlin Clark's 27-point, 15-assist night forced a decisive Game 3 between Indiana and Las Vegas. Tonight, Atlanta and Golden State try to close out their own series on the road, while Washington and Dallas play like it's the last game of their season — because it is if they lose. Dream at Mystics tips at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN, and Valkyries at Wings follows at 9:00 PM ET, also on ESPN.

Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics | Game 2 | 7:00 PM ET | ESPN

Atlanta took Game 1 92-77 despite a rough shooting night from Angel Reese (4-of-15, though she still managed a 13-point, 12-rebound double-double while battling foul trouble). Rhyne Howard (26 points, 5 steals) and Allisha Gray (22 points) carried the offense, and the Dream turned 22 Washington turnovers into 27 points, the difference in a game that was tied at halftime. Atlanta is 30-14 and was the best road team in the league during the regular season, posting a +8.7 net rating away from home.

Washington is 27-16 and facing elimination at home, where Sonia Citron (25 points), Kiki Iriafen (15 points, 14 rebounds), and Shakira Austin (12 points, 16 rebounds) all played well individually — the turnovers were the entire story. Washington has to protect the ball dramatically better to extend this series.

Our projection has Atlanta winning 88-82, a margin only about 2.5 points wider than DraftKings' Dream -3.5 — enough to lean Atlanta, but not by much given Washington's desperation and home crowd. The total is a different story: our projected 170 sits well above the DraftKings line of 165.5, and the trend data backs it up — the Over has hit in four of the last six meetings between these teams, and Washington has gone over in eight straight playoff games as an underdog. Lean Atlanta -3.5 (Lean), and lean the over (Strong).

Washington wins if the Mystics cut their turnovers in half and Citron, Iriafen, and Austin get to keep playing the way they did in Game 1.

Atlanta wins if the Dream's defense forces the same kind of sloppy possessions and Howard and Gray stay hot enough to cover for another quiet Reese shooting night.

Golden State Valkyries @ Dallas Wings | Game 2 | 9:00 PM ET | ESPN

Golden State demolished Dallas 104-80 in Game 1, the highest point total in franchise history, shooting 18-of-36 from three while Dallas went just 6-of-20. Cecilia Zandalasini scored 22 points in under 16 minutes, Gabby Williams added 20, and Tiffany Hayes chipped in 21 off the bench. The Valkyries are 32-12 and already swept Dallas 3-0 in the regular season by at least eight points every time.

Dallas is 27-17 and facing elimination at home, where Paige Bueckers was brilliant in defeat (21 points on 9-of-10 shooting, sitting the entire fourth quarter once the game was out of hand) but nobody else consistently stepped up. The concern echoed around the series all week: Dallas may not have enough offensive firepower beyond Bueckers to trade shots with this Golden State attack.

Our projection has Golden State winning 89-78, a comfortable margin well beyond DraftKings' Valkyries -3.5 — enough of a gap to lean the road favorite with real conviction. The total is trickier: our own projection sits a bit above the DraftKings line of 155.5, but Dallas has gone under in 15 of its last 19 home games this season, a real signal that tonight's game may not repeat Sunday's shootout now that the series has shifted to a slower home environment. Lean Golden State -3.5 (Strong), and lean the over (Lean).

Dallas wins if Bueckers gets more consistent help and the Wings' home crowd fuels a defensive effort that avoids a repeat of Sunday's record-breaking quarter.

Golden State wins if the three-point shooting stays hot and the Valkyries complete a series sweep that started with the most lopsided game of the entire first round.

Both games tonight carry win-or-go-home stakes for the home team, and both road favorites are trying to close out a series the way New York already did to Minnesota. Watch Washington's turnover numbers early and whether Dallas can find a second scorer to take pressure off Bueckers — those are the difference between a Game 3 and a very early exit. Two elimination games tonight, both on ESPN.