Minnesota and Indiana both face elimination tonight after dropping Game 1 of their best-of-three series. The Fever situation is the more familiar kind of desperate; the Lynx situation is historic. No No. 1 seed has ever lost a first-round series since the WNBA moved to this format in 2022 — every top seed since then has made it out of the first round unscathed. Minnesota will need to win the next two games to avoid being on the wrong side of history. Aces at Fever tips at 6:30 PM ET on Prime Video, and Lynx at Liberty follows at 8:30 PM ET on USA Network.

Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever | Game 2 | 6:30 PM ET | Prime Video

Las Vegas took Game 1 102-85, scoring 28 points off 17 Indiana turnovers and snapping Kelsey Mitchell's record 27-game streak of 20-point games in the process (she finished 4-of-16 for 12 points). A'ja Wilson controlled the game from the start. The Aces are one win from a sweep and a ticket back to the WNBA semifinals.

Indiana is 28-16 and already missing Tyasha Harris, who is out for the playoffs with a broken fibula, thinning a backcourt that needs to protect the ball far better than it did Sunday. Caitlin Clark and Mitchell get a chance to respond at home in a true must-win.

Our projection has Indiana winning this one 91-86, a bounce-back built on cleaner ball security and the Fever's regular-season edge in this matchup (Indiana won the season series 2-1). That's a healthier margin than DraftKings' Indiana -1.5, a big enough gap to lean the home team with real conviction, while our projected total of 177 sits well under the 183.5 posted. We picked Las Vegas in 3 games in our series preview — a Fever win tonight is step one in proving that pick right. Lean Indiana -1.5 (Lean), and lean the under (Strong).

Las Vegas wins if the turnover margin that decided Game 1 shows up again and the Aces complete the sweep on the road.

Indiana wins if Clark and Mitchell clean up the giveaways and the Fever's home crowd fuels a get-right game to force Game 3 in Las Vegas.

Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty | Game 2 | 8:30 PM ET | USA Network

New York stunned Minnesota 91-75 in Game 1 at Target Center, with Breanna Stewart going for 34 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists while Napheesa Collier chased her around the floor most of the afternoon. Leonie Fiebich hit 4 of 5 from three, and the Liberty pulled away with a huge third quarter after trailing 44-40 at the half. New York is one win from completing the biggest upset in WNBA playoff-format history.

Minnesota’s Rookie of the Year looked out of her element in her first WNBA playoff game. Olivia Miles returned from a two-game calf injury absence and shot just 3-of-12 for 11 points with four turnovers in her playoff debut. Jonquel Jones played through an ankle injury for New York and was limited to 8 points, so her health is worth watching again tonight.

Our projection has New York winning 88-85, a tighter margin than Game 1's 16-point blowout but still a Liberty win — Minnesota's floor is higher at home with a desperate Collier, but Miles's health and rhythm are the swing factor we can't fully trust yet. That's a full 6.5 points off DraftKings' Minnesota -3.5, enough of a gap to lean the road team with real conviction. Our projected total of 173 sits almost exactly on the market's 172.5, essentially a coin flip. We picked Minnesota in 3 in our series preview; a loss tonight would end that before it started. Lean New York +3.5 (Strong), and lean the over (Coin flip).

New York wins if Stewart repeats Sunday's performance and the Liberty complete the first-ever sweep of a No. 1 seed under this format.

Minnesota wins if Miles looks like herself again, Collier's defense on Stewart tightens up, and the Lynx force a decisive Game 3 back home.

Two teams face true win-or-go-home stakes, and one carries the weight of playoff history: a Minnesota loss tonight would make the Lynx the first No. 1 seed swept out of the first round since the WNBA adopted this format in 2022. Watch the turnover battle in Indiana and Olivia Miles's health and rhythm in Brooklyn — both are the difference between a Game 3 and a very early exit. Two elimination games tonight, on Prime Video and USA Network.