The regular season ends tonight, and four of the eight playoff seeds are already locked: Minnesota at No. 1, Atlanta at No. 4, Dallas at No. 7, and New York at No. 8. The other four seeds 2, 3, 5, and 6 will be decided by results in Minneapolis, Washington, San Francisco, and Phoenix. Tempo at Sun tips at 7:00, Sky at Mystics follows at 7:30, Fever at Lynx at 8:00, and Valkyries at Sparks and Aces at Mercury close the night at 10:00.

With four seeds locked, tonight comes down to two head-to-head races and in both, the team that lost the season series needs help.

No. 2 seed: Valkyries vs. Aces. Golden State (31-12) leads Las Vegas (30-13) by one game, and both play tonight. A Valkyries win or an Aces loss keeps Golden State at No. 2 outright. But if Golden State loses and Las Vegas wins, both finish 31-13 and Las Vegas wins the tiebreaker. The Aces swept the season series 3-0, so any tie sends Vegas to the No. 2 seed and drops the Valkyries to No. 3.

No. 5 seed: Fever vs. Mystics. Indiana (28-15) leads Washington (27-16) by one game, with the Fever at Minnesota and the Mystics hosting Chicago at the same time. A Fever win or a Mystics loss locks Indiana into the 5. But if Washington wins and Indiana loses, both finish 28-16 and Washington wins the tiebreaker. The Mystics took the season series 2-1, including Sunday's 93-77 win in Indianapolis, so a tie sends Washington to the No. 5 seed and drops Indiana to No. 6.

Toronto Tempo @ Connecticut Sun | 7:00 PM ET | NBA TV

Both of these teams finished well outside the playoff picture \u2014 Toronto at 11-32 in its inaugural season, Connecticut at 10-33 in one of the roughest years in franchise history. Tonight is simply the last game before the offseason for both.

The line sits at Connecticut -1.5, with the total at 168.5. With nothing riding on the outcome for either side, the number comes down to whichever roster has more legs left after a long season. Lean Connecticut -1.5, and lean the under.

Toronto wins if its younger rotation plays loose in the season finale and gets enough stops to steal a road cover.

Connecticut wins if its slightly deeper roster closes the year on a high note at home.

Chicago Sky @ Washington Mystics | 7:30 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

Washington is 27-16 and needs a win tonight to keep its No. 5 seed hopes alive, regardless of what happens in Minneapolis. The Mystics already beat Chicago once this season and have the far deeper roster in Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron.

Chicago is 16-27 and eliminated, closing out a disappointing season on the road.

The line sits at Washington -12.5, with the total at 166.5. Washington has every incentive to make a statement, and the Mystics' talent gap over Chicago has shown up all season. Lean Washington -12.5, and lean the over.

Chicago wins if the Sky's shooters get hot and Washington shows any nerves with a playoff seed on the line.

Washington wins if Iriafen and Citron control the game early and the Mystics take care of business before checking the Fever score.

Indiana Fever @ Minnesota Lynx | 8:00 PM ET | USA Network

Indiana is 28-15 and needs a win or a Washington loss to lock up the No. 5 seed outright. Minnesota is 32-11 and has already effectively secured the No. 1 overall seed thanks to its tiebreaker edge, giving the Lynx the freedom to treat tonight as a formality.

Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell have carried the league's most explosive offense all season, while Minnesota's stars have far less riding on the outcome than they did a week ago.

The line sits at Indiana -2.5, with the total at 183.5. A motivated Fever team facing a Lynx squad with nothing left to play for is exactly the kind of spot where the underdog on paper becomes the favorite on the scoreboard. Lean Indiana -2.5, and lean the over.

Minnesota wins if the Lynx's talent shows up regardless of stakes and the league's best defense closes the year with a statement.

Indiana wins if Clark and Mitchell's offense takes advantage of a Minnesota team with nothing on the line and the Fever lock up the 5-seed outright.

Golden State Valkyries @ Los Angeles Sparks | 10:00 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

Golden State is 31-12 and controls its own destiny: a win locks up the No. 2 seed regardless of what Las Vegas does in Phoenix. The Valkyries have owned the league's stingiest defense for weeks and get an eliminated Sparks team standing between them and home-court advantage in the first round.

Los Angeles is 16-27 and playing out the string at home.

The line sits at Golden State -11.5, with the total at 158.5, the lowest of the night. Golden State has every reason to close strong, and the Valkyries' defense has made a habit of suffocating exactly this kind of opponent. Lean Golden State -11.5, and lean the under.

Los Angeles wins if the Sparks play spoiler at home and the pressure of the seeding race gets to a road Golden State team.

Golden State wins if the defense that's carried this stretch run shows up one more time and locks up the No. 2 seed outright.

Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury | 10:00 PM ET | USA Network / CNBC

Las Vegas is 30-13 and needs a win combined with a Golden State loss to force a tiebreaker for the No. 2 seed. The Aces already own that tiebreaker after sweeping the season series 3-0, so every part of tonight matters for Las Vegas beyond just the final score in Phoenix.

Phoenix is 16-27 and eliminated, closing out the season at home with nothing to play for.

The line sits at Las Vegas -9.5, with the total at 175.5. A defending champion with a real prize riding on tonight against an eliminated team with no motivation is the profile of a comfortable, engaged win. Lean Las Vegas -9.5, and lean the over.

Phoenix wins if the Mercury's role players close the season with a signature upset over a distracted Vegas team.

Las Vegas wins if the Aces take care of business and then watch the scoreboard from San Francisco.

Two races decide four seeds simultaneously: watch Minneapolis and Washington together for the No. 5 seed, and San Francisco and Phoenix together for the No. 2 seed. Both tiebreakers favor the team currently trailing in the standings Las Vegas over Golden State, Washington over Indiana so a split night in either race flips the seed. Five games close out the regular season tonight, with the playoffs opening Sunday, September 27.