WNBA Preview | Semifinals, October 9, 2026
Both semifinal series sit at 2-0, and both road teams have a chance to sweep tonight. Atlanta needs one more win in New York, and Golden State needs one more in Las Vegas. The Liberty & the Aces, meanwhile, are trying to become the first team in WNBA history to win a best-of-five series after falling behind 0-2. Atlanta at New York tips at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2, and Golden State at Las Vegas follows at 9:30 PM ET on Peacock and NBCSN.
New York Faces Elimination and the Weight of History
Atlanta Dream @ New York Liberty | Game 3 | 7:30 PM ET | ESPN2
KEY STAT
60-24
Atlanta's edge in points off turnovers through two games of this series.
Atlanta leads the series 2-0 after an overtime win in Game 2, with Angel Reese and Jordin Canada scoring 23 points apiece and all five starters reaching double figures. Allisha Gray, the Dream's leading scorer who has missed time with a hand and finger injury, has been upgraded to questionable for tonight after sitting out Game 2 entirely.
New York got 35 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists from Breanna Stewart in Game 2 and still lost in overtime. No team has ever rallied from 0-2 to win a best-of-five series in WNBA history, and the Liberty need to start tonight to have any shot at it.
Our number has Atlanta winning 86-83, well outside DraftKings' New York -2.5 — enough of a gap to lean the road team with real conviction, even accounting for Gray's uncertain availability. The total gap is smaller: our number of 169 sits a bit under DraftKings' 172.5. Lean Atlanta +2.5 (Strong), and lean the under (Lean).
New York wins if Stewart's historic form continues and the Liberty's size advantage forces a Game 4 back in Atlanta.
Atlanta wins if the turnover-forcing defense that's defined this series travels well and the Dream complete a road sweep into their first Finals since 2013.
LEAN
ATL +2.5
O/U 172.5
Under ↓
CONFIDENCE: Spread — Strong · Total — Lean
Atlanta's defense has owned this series regardless of Gray's status; our number favors the Dream outright.
Las Vegas Faces Elimination at Home
Golden State Valkyries @ Las Vegas Aces | Game 3 | 9:30 PM ET | Peacock / NBCSN
Golden State leads the series 2-0 after an 83-81 Game 2 win, with Tiffany Hayes scoring 21 points off the bench and Veronica Burton hitting a go-ahead three in the final minute. Golden State's reserves outscored Las Vegas's 34-14 in that game, and the Valkyries are now one win from the franchise's first-ever Finals appearance in just their second season of existence.
Las Vegas rallied from 17 points down in Game 2 only to come up short on a missed free throw in the final seconds. A'ja Wilson led all scorers with 24 points, and the defending champions now face elimination at home for the first time all postseason.
Our number has Las Vegas winning a close one, 82-79, barely half a point off DraftKings' Aces -3.5 — too tight to call anything but a coin flip on the spread. The total is close too: our number of 158 sits just above DraftKings' 156.5. Lean Las Vegas -3.5 (Coin flip), and lean the over (Coin flip).
Golden State wins if the bench depth that carried Game 2 shows up again and the Valkyries complete a road sweep in their first-ever semifinal.
Las Vegas wins if Wilson gets more support early and the champions' elimination-game experience shows up on their home floor.
LEAN
LV -3.5
O/U 156.5
Over ↑
CONFIDENCE: Spread — Coin flip · Total — Coin flip
Our number is close to even here; elimination-game desperation at home is worth something, even against a deep Golden State bench.
What to Watch For Tonight.
Two sweeps are in play, and two teams are facing the end of their seasons. New York and Las Vegas each need a win tonight just to force a Game 4, and no team in WNBA history has come back from 0-2 to win a best-of-five series. Watch Allisha Gray's minutes in New York and whether Las Vegas can find more offense around Wilson. Two elimination games tonight, on ESPN2 and Peacock/NBCSN.