WNBA Preview | Semifinals, October 7, 2026

Four teams remain, and both semifinal series sit at 1-0 after Sunday's Game 1s. Atlanta leads New York after a comeback win complicated by an Allisha Gray injury, and Golden State leads Las Vegas after a defensive clinic at Chase Center. Neither trailing team wants to go down 2-0 tonight. New York at Atlanta tips at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN, and Las Vegas at Golden State follows at 9:30 PM ET on Peacock and NBCSN.

Atlanta Tries to Go Up 2-0 Without Its Leading Scorer

New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream | Game 2 | 7:30 PM ET | ESPN

KEY STAT

32

Points Atlanta scored off 21 forced turnovers in Game 1, tying the all-time WNBA playoff record.

Atlanta leads the series 1-0 after a 92-82 Game 1 win, but the big story heading into tonight is health: Allisha Gray, who left Game 1 with a hand injury, has been ruled out by head coach Karl Smesko, who called her day-to-day after that. DeWanna Bonner (23 points) filled the void admirably once Gray went down, and Jordin Canada scored 20 of her 25 points after halftime to help Atlanta erase a deficit and pull away behind that record-tying defensive effort. Atlanta's winning streak is now at eight games.

New York got 27 points from Sabrina Ionescu and 19 from Breanna Stewart in Game 1, but was held to just 15 points in the third quarter as Atlanta's defense took over. The Liberty need a response tonight to avoid an 0-2 hole.

Our number has Atlanta winning 85-80, a bit wider than DraftKings' Dream -1.5 — enough of a gap to lean the home team, tempered some by Gray's continued absence. The total gap is bigger: our number of 165 sits well under DraftKings' 170.5, with Atlanta's defense playing at a historic level and now missing its leading scorer on the other end. Lean Atlanta -1.5 (Lean), and lean the under (Lean).

New York wins if Stewart and Ionescu find more room with Gray out and the Liberty's size advantage evens the series.

Atlanta wins if Bonner and Canada keep carrying the scoring load and the Dream's historic defensive effort travels into Game 2.

LEAN

ATL -1.5

O/U 170.5

Under ↓

CONFIDENCE: Spread — Lean · Total — Lean

Atlanta's defense is playing at a record pace, and even without Gray, our number still favors the home team.

Golden State Tries to Build on a Dominant Game 1

Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries | Game 2 | 9:30 PM ET | Peacock / NBCSN

Golden State leads the series 1-0 after a 71-60 defensive grind, with Gabby Williams going for 25 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists and Kiah Stokes adding 14 rebounds and 3 blocks. The Valkyries won the boards 52-25 and held A'ja Wilson largely in check after a hot start, a result that prompted owner Joe Lacob to call Williams the best player in the world after the game.

Las Vegas is dealing with injury questions of its own: Jewell Loyd left Game 1 with a left leg injury, and Stephanie Talbot missed the game entirely with a separate left leg issue. Wilson will need more support if either remains limited tonight.

Our number has Golden State winning 82-76, a bit wider than DraftKings' Valkyries -1.5 — enough of a gap to lean the home team again, with the rebounding and injury picture both breaking Golden State's way. The total is close to even: our number of 158 sits just above DraftKings' 156.5. Lean Golden State -1.5 (Lean), and lean the over (Coin flip).

Las Vegas wins if Wilson gets more consistent support and the Aces' championship experience evens the series on the road.

Golden State wins if the rebounding edge and defensive execution from Game 1 carry over and the Valkyries take control of the series.

LEAN

GSV -1.5

O/U 156.5

Over ↑

CONFIDENCE: Spread — Lean · Total — Coin flip

Golden State's rebounding edge and Las Vegas's injury questions both point the same direction; the total is close to even.

What to Watch For Tonight.

Allisha Gray's absence is the headline injury of the night, but keep an eye on the health report in Las Vegas too, where Jewell Loyd and Stephanie Talbot are both question marks. Both home teams are trying to push their series to 2-0; both road teams are playing to avoid an all-but-impossible comeback. Two Game 2s tonight, on ESPN and Peacock/NBCSN.

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