Four teams remain, and the semifinals open with both Game 1s today. The format shifts to best-of-five (2-2-1), with the higher seed hosting Games 1, 2, and a potential Game 5. New York, fresh off becoming the first No. 8 seed ever to eliminate a No. 1 seed, visits a red-hot Atlanta team in its first semifinal since 2018. Then defending champion Las Vegas visits Golden State, which is into its first-ever semifinal after a wild 16-point comeback to close out Dallas. Liberty at Dream tips at 2:00 PM ET on ABC, and Aces at Valkyries follows at 4:00 PM ET on NBC and Peacock.

New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream | Game 1 | 2:00 PM ET | ABC

Atlanta won the regular-season series 2-1, closing it out with a pair of wins to lock up the No. 4 seed, though Breanna Stewart sat out the finale to rest for the playoffs. The Dream swept Washington behind WNBA Defensive Player of the Year Angel Reese, whose Atlanta defense led the league with 9.1 steals a game and forced 27 and 23 points off turnovers in the two Mystics games. Reese did battle foul trouble in that series, a real concern against a Liberty frontcourt this big.

New York is making history: the first No. 8 seed ever to eliminate a No. 1 seed, sweeping Minnesota behind a Stewart who, in Stewart's own words, has "a playoff switch." She's averaging a career-high workload and brings the tallest starting five in the league (Jonquel Jones, Stewart, Leonie Fiebich all 6-4 or taller) into a series against a team that also beat the Liberty in the first round back in 2024.

Our projection has Atlanta winning a tight one, 85-82, barely half a point off DraftKings' Dream -3.5 — too close to call anything but a coin flip on the spread, even with Atlanta's head-to-head edge this season. The total is a bigger gap: our projected 167 sits well under DraftKings' 173.5, with two elite, physical defenses set to slow this down more than the high total suggests. Lean Atlanta -3.5 (Coin flip), and lean the under (Lean).

New York wins if Stewart's playoff form carries over and the Liberty's size advantage wears down an Atlanta team that's been foul-prone all postseason.

Atlanta wins if Reese and the league's best turnover-forcing defense set the tone at home and the Dream's regular-season edge over this specific opponent holds up.

Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries | Game 1 | 4:00 PM ET | NBC / Peacock

Las Vegas is the three-time champion in the last four years, needing a decisive Game 3 win over Indiana to get here. Wilson is averaging 32.0 points through the first round and has owned this specific matchup all year, even against a Golden State defense that led the league in defensive rating.

Golden State is in its first-ever semifinal, having erased a 16-point deficit to beat Dallas in Game 3, with Gabby Williams scoring 17 of her 19 points in the second half of that comeback. The Valkyries have the better overall résumé, but they still haven't solved Wilson in three tries this season.

Our projection has Las Vegas winning on the road, 84-80, about 2.5 points better for the Aces than DraftKings' Valkyries -1.5 — enough of a gap to lean the defending champs, given how thoroughly they've owned this matchup. Our projected total of 164 sits a bit above DraftKings' 161.5, a modest lean toward the over. Lean Las Vegas +1.5 (Lean), and lean the over (Lean).

Golden State wins if the league's best defense finally figures out Wilson and the Valkyries' depth shows up after an emotional first-round escape.

Las Vegas wins if Wilson does what she's done to this team all season and the Aces' championship experience shows up in a true road environment.

Both series open with genuine coin-flip energy despite the seed gaps: Las Vegas enters as the betting favorite to win the whole thing and has beaten Golden State every single time they've played this year, while New York is looking to extend a run that has already made it the first No. 8 seed to knock out a No. 1. Watch Angel Reese's fouls in Atlanta and whether Golden State's defense can find anything for A'ja Wilson in San Francisco. Two Game 1s today, on ABC and NBC/Peacock, with Game 2s set for Wednesday.