WNBA Preview | Playoffs, October 2, 2026
Just one game on the board tonight: the decisive Game 3 between Golden State and Dallas, with a trip to the semifinals on the line. This series has been a pendulum — Golden State demolished Dallas 104-80 in Game 1 behind a WNBA-postseason-record 37-point second quarter, and Dallas answered with its own piece of history, Arike Ogunbowale's playoff-record 45 points powering a 108-100 overtime win in Game 2. Wings at Valkyries tips at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2.
A Series of Records Comes Down to One Game in San Francisco
Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries | Game 3 | 9:00 PM ET | ESPN2
KEY STAT
45
Arike Ogunbowale's points in Game 2, a new WNBA postseason single-game scoring record, breaking a three-way tie that included Napheesa Collier, Breanna Stewart, and Angel McCoughtry at 42.
Golden State’s regular season success was built on defense and they were effective against Dallas where they reduced the Wings to 75.3 points and 14.0 assists a game across those three meetings. The Valkyries own the league's No. 1 defense (79.3 points allowed a game) and the best net rating in the WNBA, and they're back at home.
Dallas is showing their scrappiness even though they are dealing with a thinning frontcourt: the Wings are without Azzi Fudd and forward Alanna Smith is now out with a lower-leg injury. Paige Bueckers and Ogunbowale have to do even more of the heavy lifting tonight than they did in Game 2.
Our projection has Golden State winning 86-74, a wider margin than DraftKings' Valkyries -7.5 — enough of a gap to lean the home team, especially with Dallas's depth thinning further. The total is closer to a true coin flip: our projected 160 sits just above DraftKings' 157.5, but Golden State plays at the league's slowest pace and has held Dallas well below its season scoring average all series, which tempers our lean toward the under. Lean Golden State -7.5 (Lean), and lean the under (Coin flip).
Dallas wins if Bueckers bounces back and Ogunbowale leads the charge for another record-setting night and the Wings' resilience carries them past a short-handed roster disadvantage.
Golden State wins if the league's best defense reasserts itself at home and the Valkyries advance to their first semifinals in franchise history.
PICK
GSV -7.5
O/U 157.5
Under ↓
CONFIDENCE: Spread — Lean · Total — Coin flip
Golden State's defense and Dallas's thinning frontcourt point to a home win; the pace and series trend keep the total close to the number.
What to Watch For Tonight.
The winner heads to the semifinals to face whichever team survived Thursday's winner-take-all game between Indiana and Las Vegas. Watch how Dallas's rotation holds up with Smith sidelined, and whether Golden State's defense looks like the Game 1 version or the one that let a 24-point lead slip away in Game 2. One game tonight, on ESPN2, decides who plays on.