Connecticut Sun @ Chicago Sky | 8:00 PM ET | Prime Video

The efficiency numbers here tell a clean story. Connecticut is running a -10.4 net rating over its recent stretch, well below Chicago's -4.6, and the Sun have missed the cover in three straight games marked by poor shooting and rebounding. Chicago, by contrast, has covered four of five behind a defense that has forced 44 percent shooting and just 28.8 percent from three against recent opponents, while their own offense has hit 48.2 percent from the floor over that same stretch.

Connecticut enters at 7-21, and the injury report only compounds the offensive struggles that have defined this roster for most of the season. Chicago has real individual talent in this game plan, with a defense that has been genuinely disruptive in recent weeks and an offense clicking well enough to make this one of the more lopsided lines on the board.

DraftKings has Chicago -4.5, with the total at 174.5. The efficiency gap supports laying the points here, and Connecticut's recent shooting and rebounding struggles make this a spot where the favorite's recent form should translate directly to the scoreboard. Lean Chicago -4.5 or better.

Connecticut wins if the Sun's shooting regresses back toward the mean after a rough recent stretch, their interior players find enough offensive rebounds to generate extra possessions, and Chicago shows any signs of a letdown against a struggling opponent.

Chicago wins if the Sky's defense continues forcing the kind of low-efficiency shooting nights that have defined their recent cover streak, their own offense builds on a stretch of 48 percent shooting, and Chicago capitalizes on Connecticut's rebounding weaknesses.

Minnesota Lynx @ Toronto Tempo | 8:00 PM ET | Prime Video

Minnesota is playing the best basketball in the league right now, and it isn't particularly close. The Lynx improved to 23-6 with a 100-93 home win over this same Toronto team on July 28, with Olivia Miles scoring 24 points as Minnesota extended its winning streak to eight games. That win came just two days ago, and Minnesota now gets a rematch on the road with the full weight of that momentum behind them.

Toronto enters shorthanded, with Isabelle Harrison, Nyara Sabally, and Brittney Sykes all out, a significant blow to a Tempo roster that was already overmatched against the league's best team before the injuries piled up. Minnesota has no such issues; the Lynx reported no players out heading into Thursday, a full-strength roster playing at the peak of its powers against a Toronto team missing three rotation pieces.

DraftKings has Minnesota at a massive spread, with the total in the 185-plus range. Given the head-to-head result just two nights ago and Toronto's mounting injuries, the market number is well-supported here. Lean Minnesota big, and lean the over given how these two teams played in their first meeting this week.

Toronto wins if the Tempo's shorthanded rotation somehow finds enough offense to keep pace, their home crowd provides an emotional lift after Tuesday's loss, and Minnesota shows any signs of complacency in a rematch against a team they just beat.

Minnesota wins if Miles continues the offensive form that has powered an eight-game winning streak, the Lynx's full-strength roster simply overwhelms a Toronto team missing three rotation players, and Minnesota treats Thursday as a continuation of the form that has made them the best team in the league.

New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces | 10:00 PM ET | Prime Video

Both rosters arrive Thursday genuinely compromised. New York is without Leonie Fiebich, Marine Johannes, and Satou Sabally, a significant chunk of the Liberty's depth chart, while Las Vegas is missing Kierstan Bell, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, and NaLyssa Smith. This isn't a game between two full-strength contenders; it's a game between two rosters leaning heavily on their remaining stars to cover for real absences.

The market has treated Las Vegas as the clear favorite despite their own injury list, a signal that the gap in remaining star power (A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray for the Aces against a Liberty core without three rotation pieces) is significant enough to outweigh the shared attrition. New York's talent at the top, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, remains real, but the depth New York has lost is exactly the kind of thing that shows up in the fourth quarter of a close game.

DraftKings has Las Vegas favored by a mid-single-digit number with the total around 181.5. Both teams are compromised, but Las Vegas's remaining core is deeper relative to what they've lost than New York's is. Lean Las Vegas, with the caveat that this line could move as more injury news comes in before tip.

New York wins if Stewart and Jones combine for enough interior production to offset the loss of three rotation players, New York's remaining depth pieces step up in expanded roles, and Las Vegas's own compromised rotation shows more strain than New York's.

Las Vegas wins if Wilson, Young, and Gray's collective talent simply outweighs New York's remaining pieces, the Aces' depth proves more resilient to their specific absences than New York's does to its own, and Las Vegas protects home court the way a team with championship pedigree should against a shorthanded opponent.