Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics | 7:30 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

This is playoff positioning in its purest form. Atlanta sits fourth at 19-11 after a 96-82 win over Phoenix on Wednesday, while Washington sits eighth at 17-12, holding the final spot in the league-wide picture after a 96-92 comeback win over Dallas that same night. Both teams enter Friday on winning notes, and Washington's ability to come from behind against a quality Dallas team says something real about their competitive character with the stretch run approaching.

Atlanta shot 43.8 percent overall and 30.9 percent from three in Wednesday's win, a solid if unspectacular offensive night that got the job done against Phoenix. Washington has hit 46.1 percent from the field with 38 percent from three over their recent stretch, genuinely elite shooting efficiency that has powered their playoff push, and their defense has been good enough to complement it. Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen remain the engines of Washington's improved season.

DraftKings has Atlanta favored in the 3.5 to 4.5 range, with the total around 170. Washington's recent shooting efficiency and the psychological boost of Wednesday's comeback make the home team worth backing against a talent gap that isn't as large as the standings suggest. Lean Washington +4.5.

Atlanta wins if their interior presence and perimeter scoring combine for the kind of two-way dominance that has defined their best performances, Atlanta's depth shows up against a Washington team playing without much rest, and the Dream protect their fourth-place positioning with a business-like road win.

Washington wins if Citron and the Mystics' shooters continue the elite efficiency that has defined their recent stretch, Iriafen controls the glass the way she has most of the season, and Washington carries the emotional momentum from Wednesday's comeback into another statement performance.

Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun | 7:30 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

Phoenix comes off a tough 96-82 loss to Atlanta on Wednesday, but the Mercury have been genuinely productive offensively over their last five games, hitting 48 percent from the field while also allowing 45 percent, a track meet that has produced 184 combined points per game in that stretch. Connecticut, at 7-23, is battling for the league's worst record with Seattle, and their own recent form has been a shootout in the wrong direction, going over the total in seven of their last ten games while struggling defensively.

Connecticut has hit just 38 percent from three over their recent stretch while allowing 49 percent shooting and 37.1 percent from deep to opponents, numbers that explain why they're allowing 93 points per game in that span. Phoenix's Kahleah Copper remains a reliable scoring floor, and against a Connecticut defense playing this loosely, the Mercury should be able to find their offense regardless of Wednesday's result.

DraftKings has Phoenix favored around 5.5, with the total in the 174.5 to 181 range depending on the book. Both teams' recent offensive form points firmly toward the over, and Phoenix's talent advantage should be enough to cover on the road. Lean Phoenix -5.5, and lean the over strongly.

Connecticut wins if their offense continues the shootout pace that has defined their recent games, Phoenix's own defensive issues from their recent stretch travel poorly on the road, and Connecticut's home crowd provides enough energy to make this a genuine track meet they can win.

Phoenix wins if Copper's scoring floor holds up against a defense that has struggled all season, the Mercury bounce back from Wednesday's loss with the kind of response a talented roster should deliver, and Phoenix takes advantage of Connecticut's well-documented defensive issues.

Golden State Valkyries @ Dallas Wings | 9:30 PM ET | ION

Golden State improved to 21-9 with a 92-82 win over Toronto on Tuesday, extending their case as one of the West's most complete rosters heading into the stretch run. Dallas, meanwhile, just suffered a 96-92 comeback loss to Washington on Wednesday, a genuinely tough result for a team that had built what looked like a comfortable lead before letting it slip away. That's the kind of loss that can linger, and Dallas now turns around for a tough test against a Golden State team playing with real confidence.

Golden State's defensive identity has been the story of their second-half surge, and their depth has shown up consistently even on nights when individual scorers are limited. Dallas's own talent, led by its perimeter shooters, remains real, but blowing a lead against Washington and then immediately facing a hot Golden State team is a difficult back-to-back gauntlet for a roster that needs to reset quickly.

DraftKings has this as one of the closer lines of the night, with Dallas actually favored by a small number at home despite Golden State's superior record and momentum. Given Wednesday's tough loss and the quick turnaround, that line looks generous to Dallas. Lean Golden State +points.

Dallas wins if the Wings shake off Wednesday's disappointing finish quickly, their perimeter shooters find rhythm against a Golden State defense that has been elite most of the season, and Dallas's home crowd provides the emotional reset they need after Wednesday's collapse.

Golden State wins if the Valkyries' defensive identity continues the form that has defined their second-half surge, their depth proves too much for a Dallas team still processing a tough loss, and Golden State carries Tuesday's momentum directly into another road statement.