Las Vegas Aces @ Chicago Sky | 1:00 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

The net rating gap here is real, Las Vegas sits at +8.2 against Chicago's -4.6, but the recent trend lines are moving in opposite directions. The Aces are just 4-4 against the spread over their last eight games, and their defense has had genuine issues, allowing 95 points per game and 37 percent from three over their last five. Chicago, meanwhile, has covered five of six in that same stretch behind a defense that has held opponents to 43.6 percent shooting and just 27.9 percent from three.

A'ja Wilson remains the best individual player on the floor by a wide margin, and Las Vegas's talent advantage at the top of the roster is real regardless of recent form. But Chicago's defensive rhythm right now is genuinely good, not just a product of facing weaker opponents, and a team playing this well defensively at home is live against a favorite that has struggled to protect leads recently.

Consensus market has Chicago getting points as a home underdog, likely in the mid-single digits given the current form gap. The efficiency numbers and recent ATS trends both point toward Chicago covering here even if Las Vegas wins outright. Lean Chicago +points.

Chicago wins if their defense continues forcing the low-efficiency shooting that has defined their recent cover streak, their own offense builds on a stretch of 48 percent shooting from the floor, and Las Vegas's recent defensive slippage continues on the road.

Las Vegas wins if Wilson's individual talent simply overwhelms Chicago's defensive scheme the way it has against most opponents this season, Jackie Young and the Aces' perimeter shooters snap out of their recent defensive funk on the other end, and Las Vegas treats Saturday as a chance to reset after a rocky ATS stretch.

New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury | 3:00 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

New York arrives in Phoenix without three real rotation pieces: Leonie Fiebich, Anneli Maley, and Satou Sabally are all out. That's a significant chunk of the Liberty's depth chart missing at once, and it puts real pressure on Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones to carry the offensive and interior workload with a thinner bench behind them. Phoenix has its own absences, Shay Ciezki and Kara Dunn both out, but the Mercury's issues are less central to their rotation than New York's are.

The market has priced this as a relatively close game despite New York's overall talent advantage, with the consensus spread sitting in a range that suggests real respect for Phoenix at home. That's a reasonable read given how many bodies New York is missing. Kahleah Copper remains a reliable scoring floor for Phoenix, and Footprint Center has been a difficult building for shorthanded visiting teams this season.

Consensus market has New York favored by a small number, in the +1.5 to +3.5 range depending on the book. Given the depth New York is missing, that number feels about right rather than generous in either direction. Lean the total more than the side here — with both rosters compromised in different ways, this projects as a grind-it-out game rather than a shootout.

Phoenix wins if Copper's scoring efficiency at home continues and the Mercury's defense makes New York's thinned rotation work hard for every possession, Phoenix's own shorthanded roster proves more resilient to its specific absences than New York's does, and the Mercury protect home court against a talent-depleted opponent.

New York wins if Stewart and Jones combine for enough interior production to offset the loss of three rotation players, New York's remaining depth pieces step into expanded roles effectively, and the Liberty's talent at the top of the roster proves decisive even with a short bench.