Data cutoff: Sunday, 6 September 2026, end of day. Distributed: Tuesday, 8 September 2026. Source: JustTCG.
The Week in Brief
Two weeks ago an unconfirmed reprint moved a set 3.60% in seven days. This week a confirmed one, ten days from release, moved nothing at all.
30th Celebration arrives on 16 September. Inside it is the Classic Collection: thirty reprinted cards drawn from across the game’s history, each with a gold border. Six of the thirty are confirmed by The Pokémon Company. The other twenty-four come from community reporting and are not official. Between them they touch ten sets we track.
Here is what those sets did in the week ending 6 September, against everything else we cover.
Group | Cards | Median | Share declining |
|---|---|---|---|
Sets with a confirmed reprint | 8 | 0.00% | 50% |
Sets with a reported reprint | 38 | -0.06% | 53% |
Every other set we track | 253 | 0.00% | 46% |
There is no separation. The confirmed group is only eight cards across two sets, which is too thin to carry an argument on its own, and two more Paldea Evolved cards in our coverage are currently unpriced, so it is thinner still. That is exactly why the reported group matters: thirty-eight cards across eight more sets, and it gives the same answer. The two confirmed sets even went opposite ways, Team Up up and Paldea Evolved down 2.15% across its three priced constituents.
Set that against edition one. The Destined Rivals reprint was never confirmed by anyone official. Every account traced to retailers and community sourcing. The set fell 3.60% in a week and every chase card we tracked in it sat within five percent of its ninety-day low.
So the market moved hard on a rumor and is sitting still on a fact with a date attached. We can think of three readings and the data does not choose between them. It was priced in months ago, when the set was first announced. Thirty scattered classics do not read as supply pressure the way a full-set reprint does, because no single card is getting flooded. Or surprise simply moves prices and confirmation does not. Which of those you believe changes what the next ten days mean, and we are not going to pick for you.
Last week’s story lasted exactly one week. Seven days ago Rayquaza took five of the ten slots on this board after the Delta Reign reveal. This week it takes none. All thirteen Rayquaza prints we track finished between -5.6% and +5.9%, scattered in both directions with no shared direction at all. The four Roaring Skies prints that rose together last week came in at +1.7%, -2.1%, -0.8% and +3.6%. Whatever the reveal did, it did it in one week and then stopped.
Away from that, the era split held and one part of it kept getting worse.
Era | Median card | Share declining | Last week |
|---|---|---|---|
Sun & Moon | +0.03% | 23% | +0.37% / 15% |
XY | 0.00% | 32% | +0.03% / 29% |
Sword & Shield | -0.07% | 54% | -0.11% / 57% |
Scarlet & Violet | -0.63% | 66% | -0.60% / 63% |
Mega Evolution | -2.52% | 86% | -3.01% / 86% |
Third consecutive week with Mega Evolution at the bottom, and 86% of its chase cards declining for the second week running. What moved inside it is the interesting part. Ascended Heroes is now the worst set we track at -4.31%, worse than last week. Chaos Rising, last week’s worst at -5.60%, improved to -2.89%. The decline is not spreading, it is rotating, but it still hits Mega Evolution worse than the previous eras.
One more thing about the shape of the week. Nothing on this board moved more than 10.9%, against 35.4% last week and 9.7% the week before. But twenty-four cards moved at least five percent, up from twenty-one. Fewer headlines, more mid-sized moves. A quiet top is not the same thing as a quiet market.
The Top 10 Movers
One list. Gainers and decliners ranked together by the size of the move.
# | Card | Set | Era | 7D | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mega Floette ex | Chaos Rising | Mega Evo | -10.9% | $27.56 |
2 | Kirlia | Scarlet & Violet | S&V | +8.8% | $44.67 |
3 | Gloom | Obsidian Flames | S&V | +8.6% | $23.48 |
4 | N's Zoroark ex | Journey Together | S&V | -8.3% | $44.37 |
5 | Skyla (Full Art) | Shining Fates | SWSH | -7.9% | $10.33 |
6 | Gengar EX | Phantom Forces | XY | -6.8% | $86.32 |
7 | Morpeko | Paradox Rift | S&V | +6.7% | $58.65 |
8 | Ultra Necrozma GX (Secret) | Dragon Majesty | S&M | +6.7% | $122.91 |
9 | Marnie (Full Art) | Sword & Shield | SWSH | +6.6% | $36.54 |
10 | Elesa's Sparkle (Full Art) | Crown Zenith | SWSH | -6.4% | $15.40 |
Seven day window, 30 August to 6 September 2026. Prices are ungraded Near Mint. 81 of 342 tracked cards qualified. Three cards were excluded outright because they failed to refresh and are carrying a stale price; twelve more were held out by the artifact guard. Both are explained below.
Why It Moved
Context for each of the ten. Where the shape of the week matters, the daily closing price is printed.
1. Mega Floette ex
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
Flat for four days and then a cliff: $31.03 on the 1st, then $30.80, $30.75, $29.56, $28.11, $27.56. Almost the entire move landed in the last three days of the window. Chaos Rising as a set improved from -5.60% last week to -2.89% this week, and this card is why the set is still negative at all. Four of its five chase constituents fell, and this one fell more than three times harder than the next worst.
2. Kirlia
Catalyst: none identified
The cleanest shape on the board by some distance. It rose on every single one of the seven days: $41.06, $41.81, $42.20, $43.24, $43.88, $44.36, $44.60, $44.67. A perfect directional efficiency score, and no single day carried more than 29% of the move. Scarlet & Violet base finished at +1.77%, one of the few sets in that era to end the week up, and this was the strongest card in it. We could find no announcement, reprint or tournament result that attaches.
3. Gloom
Catalyst: none identified
The loosest qualifier on the board. It ran $21.62 up to $23.00, back down to $22.36 across three days, then up again to $23.48. Our direction rule asks whether a move actually went somewhere rather than churning, and this scored 0.59 against a floor of 0.50. It cleared, narrowly, and we would rather say that than present it as a clean move.
4. N's Zoroark ex
Catalyst: modern set softening
Declined on every one of the seven days, $48.38 down to $44.37, with no single day dominant. Journey Together was the second worst set we track this week at -2.65%. The World Championships ran 28 to 30 August and we checked whether a result attaches to this card: it does not. The published top eight was Dragapult, Alakazam Dudunsparce, Crustle and Ogerpon Box, and no Zoroark deck appears in it.
5. Skyla (Full Art)
Catalyst: none identified
The cheapest card on the board at $10.33, which puts it a third of a dollar above our $10 inclusion floor. It fell on six of seven days. Worth noting that a card sitting this close to the floor can drop off the board next week without anything meaningful happening to it.
6. Gengar EX
Catalyst: none identified
The odd one out in its own set. The other four Phantom Forces cards we track finished at +3.5%, +2.7%, -1.0% and -0.3%. This one fell 6.8% alone. Two of those four also failed to refresh this week on JustTCG errors, so Phantom Forces is thinner than usual and we would treat any set-level read on it this week with caution.
7. Morpeko
Catalyst: none identified
Rose on five of seven days with the largest steps late in the window. Paradox Rift finished at +1.81%, which puts it among the better Scarlet & Violet sets in a week when that era was the second worst overall.
8. Ultra Necrozma GX (Secret)
Catalyst: none identified
Flat for three days, then two steps on the 2nd and 3rd from $115.21 to $120.75 to $122.91, then flat for the last four. That single largest day accounts for 72% of the week’s movement, against the 75% threshold at which our artifact guard holds a card back. It cleared by three points. We are printing that because a card can be inside our rules and still be a thin observation, and you should know which ones those are.
9. Marnie (Full Art)
Catalyst: none identified
This card was number four on our very first board two weeks ago, at -9.1%, described then as a card that stepped down across three days and stopped with nothing attached to it. It has now made most of that back, +6.6% to $36.54 against the $37.54 it started from. A complete round trip in a fortnight with no news at either end.
10. Elesa's Sparkle (Full Art)
Catalyst: none identified
Crown Zenith was one of last week’s strongest sets at +4.31%, carried by its two Rayquaza VMAX prints. This week the Rayquaza stopped and this card fell. It declined on five of seven days from $16.46 to $15.40.
What we held out, and what the new rule changed
Two things happened to this week’s data before the board above was built, and both change what is on it.
Three cards were excluded outright. M Lucario EX, Dialga EX 122 and M Gengar EX 121 all failed to refresh against our price source, which returned a service error for each. When that happens the card keeps its last known price. A price that did not update is not a price that did not move, and the two are indistinguishable once they are in a table, so those three cannot appear as movers this week. M Gengar EX 121 was number ten on last week’s board.
Twelve more were held back by a rule we changed this week. Our direction test rewards a decisive repricing that sticks, and it cannot tell that apart from a price that got stuck. Both look like one clean step. So a step now has to be confirmed by a later change before it counts. A real level gets tested. A bad print sits at the same number forever, because nothing is trading there.
Latias & Latios GX, Team Up. Third consecutive week this card has been held out, and the first week the rule caught it without us intervening by hand. It went from $3,833.92 to $4,271.62 on 1 September, a single 11.4% step, and has not changed price on any of the six days since. It would have been the largest move on this board. It is also the most expensive card in our coverage and roughly eleven percent of our index by value, which means when it does this, it moves our headline index number on its own. We are looking at whether the index should cap what any one card can contribute.
Applied to our own back catalogue, this rule would have removed twelve cards from edition one and twelve from edition two. It leaves last week’s +35.4% Rayquaza EX in place, because that card moved again the following day and was therefore confirmed. We would rather show you the rule and what it costs than quietly tighten it.
What Qualifies as a Mover
A card clears all of these or it does not appear. This week 81 of 342 tracked cards qualified.
Era. XY forward.
Rarity. Chase tier only.
Price floor. $10 minimum.
Move floor. At least 2% across the week.
Direction floor. The move has to have gone somewhere rather than churned.
Confirmation. NEW. A move carried by one day has to be confirmed by a later price change.
No sealed product.
No sets under 90 days old.
No stale prices. A card that failed to refresh cannot be a mover.
Coverage is 345 chase tier cards across 69 sets, three of which were unavailable this week.
Informational only. The Spike Report is a market pricing publication. It describes observed secondary market activity for collectible trading cards. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation of any kind, and nothing in it is a directive to take any action with any card or collectible. Trading cards are collectibles, not securities. Prices can move sharply in either direction and past movement does not indicate future movement. Any decision you make is your own.
Early Signal
Three cards whose price data currently shows a recognizable pattern. This week: the card our new rule caught for the third week running, a card climbing into a confirmed reprint rather than away from it, and a thousand-dollar card grinding into its floor. Included with Tome Intel and above.
Methodology. Data from JustTCG, the same source as the Chase Modern EN 50, so the two products cannot show contradictory prices for the same card. Coverage is 345 chase tier cards across 69 sets, XY forward. Cards qualify on a move of at least 2% that travelled in one direction rather than churning, and are then ranked by the size of that move.
What changed this week. A move carried by a single day now has to be confirmed by a later price change before the card can appear. The data cutoff is end of day Sunday and the edition is built Monday, so Monday’s refresh is available as a confirming observation. It is never reported as a price; it only answers whether a new level was tested.
Sources this week. 30th Celebration release date, card count and the Classic Collection subset from Bulbapedia; the thirty-card reprint list as reported by PokeBeach, which is community sourced and not official except for the six cards Bulbapedia lists as confirmed. World Championships placings from Bulbapedia and Limitless.
Cadence. Data cutoff end of day Sunday, distributed Tuesday.
Corrections. If a number here looks wrong, comment below. Corrections get published.