Data cutoff: Sunday, 27 September 2026, end of day. Distributed: Tuesday, 29 September 2026. Source: JustTCG.
The Week in Brief
We made a prediction last week and it held. Two regional championships ran on 26 and 27 September, Frankfurt with 2,793 players and Brisbane with 817, both finishing on Sunday, the cutoff day. We said the results would land too late to reach prices inside this window, and that any move would be next week’s story.
Thirteen cards in our coverage belong to archetypes that made those top eights. Their week ran from -5.02% to +0.93%, and most of them recorded identical prices on the 25th, 26th and 27th. Alakazam EX Secret moved fifty-one cents. M Alakazam EX did not move at all, and neither did M Lucario EX, Lucario EX, Blaziken GX or Galarian Slowking V. A tournament that finishes on Sunday evening does not reprice a card by Sunday’s close, and now we have the number rather than the assumption.
Frankfurt is worth one more note. Alakazam-Dusknoir took first and second, and Dusknoir appeared in six of the sixteen combined top-eight slots across both events. If that archetype moves anything we track, it shows up in edition seven. We have written down what we expect, which means next week we either report a move or report that we were wrong.
The decline rotated. For five editions Mega Evolution was the worst era in our data by a widening margin. It is still last on the median, but look at what happened underneath.
Era | Median card | Share declining | Last week |
|---|---|---|---|
XY | 0.00% | 25% | 0.00% / 38% |
Sun & Moon | +0.02% | 31% | 0.00% / 18% |
Sword & Shield | -0.62% | 71% | -0.61% / 68% |
Scarlet & Violet | -1.89% | 82% | -0.54% / 66% |
Mega Evolution | -2.39% | 75% | -4.34% / 86% |
Mega Evolution improved on both measures, median from -4.34% to -2.39% and breadth from 86% to 75%. Scarlet & Violet went the other way, from 66% declining to 82%, the worst breadth of any era this week. The selling did not stop. It moved one era back. The board says the same thing: last week nine of ten movers were Mega Evolution, and this week five of ten are Scarlet & Violet and only two are Mega Evolution.
The age gradient sharpened, and changed shape.
Set age at cutoff | Cards | 7 day median | Share declining | 30 day median | Last week 7d / declining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under 1 year | 23 | -2.92% | 74% | -17.33% | -4.34% / 86% |
1 to 2 years | 33 | -1.86% | 88% | -4.24% | -0.25% / 71% |
2 to 4 years | 44 | -2.02% | 80% | -5.45% | -0.85% / 66% |
4 to 8 years | 100 | -0.07% | 51% | +0.04% | -0.03% / 51% |
Over 8 years | 113 | 0.00% | 31% | +1.22% | 0.00% / 29% |
Rank correlation between set age and weekly change rose from +0.31 to +0.43. But the straight line we printed last week is gone. The 1-to-2-year bucket is now the worst by breadth at 88% declining, worse than the newest sets. What is left is a cliff rather than a slope: everything under four years old is declining at 74% to 88%, everything over four years old at 51% or 31%. The line sits at four years and it is stark.
The same caution applies as last week. Age and era are the same variable in our coverage, so “old cards held” and “the new sets fell” are two descriptions of one fact. And we can see prices, not attention.
The reprint outperformance we reported last week is gone.
Group | Cards | Declining | Last week |
|---|---|---|---|
Ten reprint sets | 48 | 52% | 33% |
Everything else | 265 | 54% | 53% |
Everything else, ex Mega Evolution | 237 | 51% | 49% |
Last week the reprint sets declined at 33% against 53% for the rest of the board, and we wrote that two of ten sets carried the result and we would not claim the reverse of the supply-pressure thesis. That caution was worth having. One week later the gap is two percentage points, which is no gap. It was a release-week effect and it lasted one week.
Set detail. Perfect Order is the worst set we track at -7.95% on an equal-weight average and -6.20% on a median, four of four down. Crown Zenith -6.86% and -5.13%, five of five down. Destined Rivals -5.36% and -4.39%, five of five down, a third consecutive week falling on a reprint that was never confirmed and never arrived. At the other end Generations finished +4.60% and +2.55%, and Team Up +2.29% and +2.01% with none of its five down.
Breadth: the median card moved -0.195% across 313 priced constituents, against -0.001% last week, with 53% declining. Seven cards rose 5% or more and twenty-eight fell 5% or more.
The Top 10 Movers
One list. Gainers and decliners ranked together by the size of the move.
# | Card | Set | Era | 7D | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mega Clefable ex (119) | Perfect Order | Mega Evo | -14.1% | $43.99 |
2 | Mega Dragalge ex (118) | Chaos Rising | Mega Evo | -12.4% | $27.18 |
3 | Drowzee (210) | Scarlet & Violet | S&V | -12.1% | $52.92 |
4 | Rayquaza VMAX (102) | Crown Zenith | SWSH | -10.5% | $12.57 |
5 | Pokemon Center Lady (185) | Vivid Voltage | SWSH | -10.4% | $19.76 |
6 | Morty’s Conviction (211) | Temporal Forces | S&V | -9.1% | $54.06 |
7 | Glaceon EX (116) | Fates Collide | XY | +9.0% | $39.52 |
8 | Zapdos ex (202) | Scarlet & Violet 151 | S&V | -8.6% | $82.12 |
9 | Iono’s Bellibolt ex (183) | Journey Together | S&V | -8.3% | $35.06 |
10 | Gloom (198) | Obsidian Flames | S&V | -8.2% | $20.85 |
Seven day window, 20 to 27 September 2026. Prices are ungraded Near Mint. 85 of 345 tracked cards qualified and 76 cleared the guard. One qualifying card was pulled off the board by our review rule and is disclosed below.
Why It Moved
Context for each of the ten. Where the shape of the week matters, the daily closing price is printed.
1. Mega Clefable ex (119)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
Declined on all seven days with a perfect 1.00 direction score, $51.24 to $43.99, and repriced on thirty of thirty days. Almost half the week landed on Wednesday, a $3.45 step from $50.07 to $46.62. Down 12.5% over thirty days and at the exact bottom of that range. Perfect Order is the worst set we track this week and all four of its constituents fell.
2. Mega Dragalge ex (118)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
Second consecutive week on this board, at -11.0% then and -12.4% now, which compounds to -22.0% over fourteen days and -27.9% over thirty, the steepest month of anything here. It is also the loosest qualifier at 0.53 against our 0.50 floor: it rose on the 23rd and again on the 26th before giving up $2.52 on the final day. A decline with two counter-moves in it, and we would rather say so than round it off.
3. Drowzee (210)
Catalyst: none identified
The first Scarlet & Violet base card we have had on this board. Down on all seven days, $59.84 to $52.92, repriced twenty-eight of thirty. The set finished at -4.34% on an average and -2.65% on a median with four of five down, so the set is falling, but this card is falling roughly three times harder than its median stablemate.
4. Rayquaza VMAX (102)
Catalyst: none identified
Crown Zenith was one of the strongest sets in our data five weeks ago at +4.31%, carried by its two Rayquaza VMAX prints. This week it is the second worst at -6.86% with all five constituents down, and this is the print leading it: down on six of seven days with a perfect direction score. Its sibling print, Rayquaza VMAX 101, fell 2.1% in the same week, so this is the print carrying it. Whatever the August Delta Reign reveal did for these cards has fully unwound.
5. Pokemon Center Lady (Full Art) (185)
Catalyst: none identified
The thinnest decliner on the board: nineteen reprices in thirty days against a universe median of thirteen, which is only just active, and 56% of the week arrived on the final day in a single $1.34 step. Down 17.9% over thirty days. The direction is not in doubt; the shape of this particular week is one step and some drift.
6. Morty’s Conviction (211)
Catalyst: none identified
Down on six of seven days from $59.50 to $54.06, with no single day carrying more than 26% of the move, the second most evenly distributed decline on this board. Down 18.2% over thirty days and at the exact bottom of that range. Temporal Forces is a March 2024 set, which puts it in the 2-to-4-year bucket.
7. Glaceon EX (Full Art) (116)
Catalyst: none identified
The only gainer on the board, and the weakest observation on it. It sat at $36.21 for three days, stepped to $39.25 on the 24th, sat again, then printed $39.52 on the 26th. That single step is 90% of the week’s movement, and the card has repriced just seven times in thirty days against a universe median of thirteen. It cleared our confirmation rule because it moved again after the step, which is the rule working as written, and it is still one step on a card that barely trades. Read it as a data point, not a trend. The rest of Fates Collide finished between -0.51% and +0.58%.
8. Zapdos ex (202)
Catalyst: none identified
The most evenly distributed decline on this board: no single day carries more than 23% of the week. Down 8.6% on the week and 14.6% over fourteen days, repriced twenty-nine of thirty days, at the exact bottom of its range. Of the sets with at least two priced constituents, Scarlet & Violet 151 is the third worst this week and both of its cards are down, the other, Charizard ex, by only 2.7%.
9. Iono’s Bellibolt ex (183)
Catalyst: none identified
Journey Together fell -4.99% on an average and -5.02% on a median with all five constituents down, and this is its largest faller. Down on six of seven days, sitting 1% off the bottom of its thirty-day range. A March 2025 set, which puts it in the 1-to-2-year bucket that had the worst breadth in our data this week.
10. Gloom (198)
Catalyst: none identified
Back on the board after appearing in edition three at +8.6%, now -8.2%. A complete round trip in three weeks with no news at either end. Repriced on thirty of thirty days, and nearly half the week’s move landed on the final day.
What we held out
One card was pulled off the board by the review rule. Charizard VMAX (Secret), Champion’s Path, qualified at -4.8% and is still under review from 20 September with three of the four distinct prices it needs after its 18 September step. It is one price away from clearing.
Nine cards were held out by the artifact guard, and for the third week running every single one was caught on concentration rather than step size: small moves of 2% to 4% with nearly all the travel in one day and nothing after. Five of the nine stepped on the 24th or 25th. No cluster larger than three, so this is not a source event, but a guard that only ever fires on one of its two arms is worth watching.
Six cards cleared review this week, the most in any edition: Gengar & Mimikyu GX (Secret), Rayquaza GX (Full Art), Leafeon EX, Primal Groudon EX (Shiny Full Art), Mewtwo EX (158) and Single Strike Urshifu VMAX. Seven new cards entered. The list stands at twenty-four, down from thirty last week, the first time it has shrunk.
M Rayquaza EX (Shiny Full Art) remains under review with two of four prices since its 18 September step. Two editions ago it had not moved in fifty-two days. It is moving now, slowly, and the entry stays open until it has behaved normally for four separate prices.
What Qualifies as a Mover
A card clears all of these or it does not appear. This week 85 of 345 tracked cards qualified and 76 cleared the guard.
Era. XY forward.
Rarity. Chase tier only.
Price floor. $10 minimum.
Move floor. At least 2% across the week.
Direction floor. The move has to have gone somewhere rather than churned.
Confirmation. A move carried by one day has to be confirmed by a later price change.
Review. A card that tripped the guard stays off the board until it records four separate prices after the step.
No sealed product. No sets under 90 days old. No stale prices.
Last week we disclosed that our universe is the five highest-priced chase cards in each of 69 sets, that five editions of boards had been filled by forty-two distinct cards, and that only 139 of the 345 had ever qualified. Those numbers now read fifty distinct cards across sixty slots, 14.5% of coverage, and 150 of 345 ever qualifying, 43.5%. The rebuild around price and movement rather than a per-set ranking is in progress. The section above on Gardevoir LV X is the clearest argument yet for also moving the era boundary.
Informational only. The Spike Report is a market pricing publication. It describes observed secondary market activity for collectible trading cards. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation of any kind, and nothing in it is a directive to take any action with any card or collectible. Trading cards are collectibles, not securities. Prices can move sharply in either direction and past movement does not indicate future movement. Any decision you make is your own.
Early Signal
Three cards whose price data currently shows a recognizable pattern, with the measured record of what that pattern has preceded across ninety days of our own coverage. This week: the deepest monthly decline in our data, one from the era the selling moved into, and a card we named here last week that has kept going. Included with Tome Intel and above.
Methodology. Data from JustTCG, the same source as the Chase Modern EN 50. Coverage is 345 chase tier cards across 69 sets, XY forward, being the five highest-priced chase cards in each set. Cards qualify on a move of at least 2% that travelled in one direction rather than churning, and are ranked by the size of that move.
What changed this week. Nothing in the rules and nothing in the build.
Sources this week. Regional Championship Frankfurt, 26 to 27 September, 2,793 players, and Regional Championship Brisbane, same dates, 817 players; standings and archetypes from Limitless. 30th Celebration and Classic Collection secondary market figures, including Gardevoir LV X, Chansey ex and the Ruby & Sapphire Mewtwo ex, as reported by Corbin Hosler for TCGplayer on 24 September. Set contents and release dates from Bulbapedia.
Cadence. Data cutoff end of day Sunday, distributed Tuesday.
Corrections. If a number here looks wrong, comment below. Corrections get published.