Data cutoff: Sunday, 20 September 2026, end of day. Distributed: Tuesday, 22 September 2026. Source: JustTCG.
The Week in Brief
30th Celebration released this past Wednesday. For three editions we watched the sets holding its thirty reprints and reported no signal. The largest anniversary release in the game’s history landed in the middle of our window and the back catalogue did not notice.
The reprint sets were the strongest part of the board. Which sounds counterintuitive, but there’s data to back it up.
Group | Cards | Median | Share declining |
|---|---|---|---|
Sets with a confirmed reprint | 8 | +0.18% | 25% |
Sets with a reported reprint | 40 | 0.00% | 35% |
Every other set we track | 264 | -0.12% | 53% |
All ten reprint sets are old sets, and this week’s decline is concentrated in the newest era, so the gap could be composition and nothing else. Removing Mega Evolution from the comparison group narrows it from twenty points to sixteen, and it survives. Matched inside each era it holds in XY, holds in Sword & Shield, and disappears entirely in Sun & Moon: fifteen reprint-set cards against sixty-four others, a three-point difference, which is no difference. Scarlet & Violet has three cards in the group and cannot be read at all.
So the supply-pressure thesis is finished. Three editions of nothing, and then a release week in which the sets holding reprints sat out a decline that took half the board. What we will not claim is the reverse. Two of ten sets carry the result, and one of them is Primal Clash, which is having an unusual week for reasons of its own.
What did fall is the new stuff, and the gradient is clean.
Set age at cutoff | Sets | Cards | 7 day median | Share declining | 30 day median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under 1 year | 6 | 28 | -4.34% | 86% | -15.22% |
1 to 2 years | 6 | 28 | -0.25% | 71% | -2.08% |
2 to 4 years | 12 | 44 | -0.85% | 66% | -3.16% |
4 to 8 years | 22 | 99 | -0.03% | 51% | +0.18% |
Over 8 years | 23 | 113 | 0.00% | 29% | +1.43% |
The share of cards declining falls in a straight line as sets get older: 86, 71, 66, 51, 29. Rank correlation between set age and weekly change is +0.31 over seven days and +0.51 over thirty. Cards from sets more than eight years old are the only group up over a month.
One caution about reading that table. Age and era are the same variable in our coverage, so “old cards held” and “Mega Evolution collapsed” are two descriptions of one fact, not two findings. And we can see prices, not attention. The gradient is real. The reason for it is not something this data can tell you.
Era detail, for the fifth week running with Mega Evolution at the bottom.
Era | Median card | Share declining | Last week |
|---|---|---|---|
Sun & Moon | 0.00% | 18% | +0.21% / 20% |
XY | 0.00% | 38% | 0.00% / 29% |
Scarlet & Violet | -0.54% | 66% | -0.57% / 63% |
Sword & Shield | -0.61% | 68% | -0.29% / 55% |
Mega Evolution | -4.34% | 86% | -2.97% / 82% |
Chaos Rising finished at -9.28% on an equal-weight average and -10.32% on a median, five of five down. Pitch Black -5.99% and -6.37%, five of five down. Phantasmal Flames -6.58% average against a -2.30% median, which is the divergence we corrected for last week: two cheap cards fell hard and carried the average. Last week the worst set was Phantasmal Flames at -5.42%; Chaos Rising was fifth.
At the other end, Primal Clash finished +2.17% with none of its five down, and Ancient Origins +1.03% with none of its five down.
Breadth says this was not a broad sell-off. The median card across all 312 priced constituents moved -0.001% and half declined. Five cards rose 5% or more; twenty-six fell 5% or more. A flat middle with a heavy negative tail, and the tail has one era in it.
The Top 10 Movers
One list. Gainers and decliners ranked together by the size of the move. This week there are no gainers.
# | Card | Set | Era | 7D | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mega Sharpedo ex (127) | Phantasmal Flames | Mega Evo | -15.4% | $16.48 |
2 | Mega Charizard X ex (109) | Phantasmal Flames | Mega Evo | -15.0% | $19.89 |
3 | Mega Floette ex (117) | Chaos Rising | Mega Evo | -13.1% | $24.37 |
4 | Mega Dragalge ex (118) | Chaos Rising | Mega Evo | -11.0% | $31.01 |
5 | Duskull (068) | Shrouded Fable | S&V | -10.6% | $48.93 |
6 | Cinccino ex (119) | Chaos Rising | Mega Evo | -10.3% | $50.33 |
7 | Mega Zygarde ex (120) | Perfect Order | Mega Evo | -8.8% | $50.05 |
8 | Mega Greninja ex (122) | Chaos Rising | Mega Evo | -8.7% | $147.61 |
9 | Mega Zygarde ex (124) | Perfect Order | Mega Evo | -7.6% | $112.97 |
10 | Mega Dragonite ex (290) | Ascended Heroes | Mega Evo | -7.4% | $554.84 |
Seven day window, 13 to 20 September 2026. Prices are ungraded Near Mint. 68 of 345 tracked cards qualified and 58 cleared the guard. Nine of the ten are Mega Evolution. One qualifying card was pulled off the board by our review rule and is disclosed below.
Why It Moved
Context for each of the ten. Where the shape of the week matters, the daily closing price is printed.
1. Mega Sharpedo ex (127)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
Down on six of seven days, $19.47 to $16.48, with no single day carrying more than 29% of the move. Repriced on twenty-eight of the last thirty days, so this is a number being tested constantly rather than one drifting unexamined. Down 17.5% over thirty days and sitting at the exact bottom of that range.
2. Mega Charizard X ex (109)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
Second appearance in two weeks; it was number one on last week’s board at -15.9%. Two consecutive weeks at roughly -15% compound to -28.5% over fourteen days and -25.4% over thirty. Repriced every one of the last thirty days. At $19.89 it is a long way from the $27 it held a month ago.
3. Mega Floette ex (117)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
Back after a week off. It was on edition three’s board at -10.9%, finished last week at +1.71%, and has now given up 13.1%. Thirty of thirty days repriced, down 21.9% across the month. The one thing arguing against continuation is the last observation: it ticked up five cents on Sunday, the first up day in four.
4. Mega Dragalge ex (118)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
The loosest qualifier on the board at 0.62 against our 0.50 direction floor. It fell to $29.81 on Friday and then recovered two days running to $31.01. The week is a decline; the last two days are not, and 40% of the week’s travel sits in a single day.
5. Duskull (068)
Catalyst: none identified
The only card on this board that is not Mega Evolution, and the only one we cannot attach to an era story. An Illustration Rare from a July 2024 set, down on six of seven days from $54.75 to $48.93 and at the floor of its thirty-day range. Shrouded Fable finished at -1.96% on an average but its median card was +0.40%, so this is one card falling, not a set.
6. Cinccino ex (119)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
The fourth Chaos Rising card on this board. Down 19.0% over thirty days, repriced on twenty-nine of thirty, and sitting at the bottom of that range. Chaos Rising released in May 2026 and is the worst set we track this week at -9.28% on an average and -10.32% on a median, all five constituents down.
7. Mega Zygarde ex (120)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
Declined on all seven days of the window with a perfect 1.00 direction score, $54.85 to $50.05, and repriced on thirty of thirty days. Perfect Order finished the week at -4.73% on an average, -5.98% on a median, three of four down.
8. Mega Greninja ex (122)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
The other seven-for-seven decliner, also a perfect 1.00: $161.71 to $147.61, down 15.2% across thirty days. Its Special Illustration Rare sibling in the same set is in Early Signal below, down 17.7% over the same month. Two prints of one card falling in step.
9. Mega Zygarde ex (124)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
The Mega Hyper Rare print of number seven, down 7.6% against that card’s 8.8%, both at the floor of their thirty-day ranges. When two prints of the same card fall together at nearly the same rate, the set is doing it, not the card.
10. Mega Dragonite ex (290)
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
We put this card in Early Signal last week. It was Signal 01, described as a grind into the floor, down 14.7% over thirty days with twenty-one of thirty days repriced. This week it fell another 7.4% and qualified as a mover on its own. That is the section working as intended, one week later, and we would rather show you that than let it pass unremarked. It is now -17.0% over thirty days and has been flat for the final two, the first pause in three weeks.
What we held out, and what our own rule cost us
The board would have had a gainer. Groudon EX (150 Full Art), Primal Clash, qualified at +8.4% and was pulled off by the review rule. Look at why. It sat at $172.42 for the entire week and then printed $186.90 on Sunday: one price change, on the last day, with three reprices in thirty days behind it. It entered review on 13 September after a step on the 8th and has recorded two distinct prices since, against the four it needs. That is the rule doing exactly what it was written for, and it cost us the only green line on the board. We are printing the card and the number rather than quietly showing you nine.
Ten cards were held out by the artifact guard, every one for concentration rather than step size: small moves of 2% to 5% with most of the travel in a single day and nothing after. Step dates spread across the 15th, 16th, 18th and 19th with no cluster larger than three, so this is not a source event.
M Rayquaza EX (Shiny Full Art) moved. In edition four we put this card in these disclosures because it had sat at $1,069.91 for forty-eight consecutive days, and said a frozen quote is a condition of our data rather than an observation about the market. On 18 September, at day fifty-two, it printed $1,092.54, and it has not moved on any of the three days since. It tripped the guard immediately and is back under review. One price change in thirty days.
Latias & Latios GX cleared review after four editions, having finally recorded four distinct prices since its last step. It still does not reach the board: $4,271.62 to $3,837.67 to $4,271.62 to $3,784.54 to $3,910.42 nets -8.5% but scores 0.24 against our 0.50 direction floor. It churned. It did not fall.
Thirty cards remain under review, which is a large number and worth saying out loud. Most are cards that stepped once in early September and have not moved since.
What Qualifies as a Mover
A card clears all of these or it does not appear. This week 68 of 345 tracked cards qualified and 58 cleared the guard.
Era. XY forward.
Rarity. Chase tier only.
Price floor. $10 minimum.
Move floor. At least 2% across the week.
Direction floor. The move has to have gone somewhere rather than churned.
Confirmation. A move carried by one day has to be confirmed by a later price change.
Review. A card that tripped the guard stays off the board until it records four separate prices after the step.
No sealed product. No sets under 90 days old. No stale prices.
A limit in our coverage we should have said sooner
Our universe is the five highest-priced chase cards in each of 69 sets: 345 cards, refreshed monthly. That has a consequence we have not disclosed and should have.
Across five editions we have printed fifty board slots. They were filled by forty-two distinct cards, 12.2% of our coverage. Only 139 of the 345, or 40.3%, have ever qualified in any week, which means three fifths of what we track has never once cleared the filters. Chaos Rising has five cards in our data and they have taken ten of the fifty slots we have published.
Two things follow. A card that is sixth by price in its set can spike all month and we will not see it until the next refresh. And when 30th Celebration enters coverage in December, a common Pikachu rising on set-completion demand, one in every pack and thirty to collect, would not be in a top-five-by-price list at all.
We are rebuilding the universe around price and movement rather than a per-set ranking. Until that ships, read the board as the best ten from a pool of 139, not from 345.
Informational only. The Spike Report is a market pricing publication. It describes observed secondary market activity for collectible trading cards. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation of any kind, and nothing in it is a directive to take any action with any card or collectible. Trading cards are collectibles, not securities. Prices can move sharply in either direction and past movement does not indicate future movement. Any decision you make is your own.
Early Signal
Three cards whose price data currently shows a recognizable pattern, with the measured record of what that pattern has preceded across ninety days of our own coverage. This week: three cards being repriced downward almost every day, in three different eras, including one from a set that is seven years old. Included with Tome Intel and above.
Methodology. Data from JustTCG, the same source as the Chase Modern EN 50. Coverage is 345 chase tier cards across 69 sets, XY forward, being the five highest-priced chase cards in each set. Cards qualify on a move of at least 2% that travelled in one direction rather than churning, and are ranked by the size of that move.
What changed this week. Nothing in the rules. One fix in the build: the board was being cut to ten before the review rule removed cards from it, which would have published nine this week instead of promoting the eleventh candidate. Editions three and four are unaffected, since nothing inside their top ten was suppressed, and edition two’s single suppression was handled by hand at the time.
On 30th Celebration. The set is not in our coverage and will not be until December. That is not the 90-day rule in this report; the set never enters our data at all, because the collection gate upstream requires ninety days of price history. We can tell you what release week did to the back catalogue. We can tell you nothing about how the new set’s own cards are pricing, including the pull-rate story that ran in the trade press this week, because those are cards we do not track.
Sources this week. 30th Celebration release date of 16 September and the Classic Collection contents from Bulbapedia and PokeBeach; the thirty-card list is community sourced and not official except for the six cards Bulbapedia lists as confirmed. Regional Championship Baltimore, 18 to 20 September, 3,122 Masters, top eight from Limitless: three Ogerpon/Clefairy, two Dragapult ex, and one each of Ogerpon/Hydrapple, Slowking and Alakazam/Dudunsparce. No Mega Evolution deck appears in it, which is worth noting in the week that era finished last for the fifth time, and worth not over-reading, since no Mega Evolution deck has appeared in a top eight all season.
Cadence. Data cutoff end of day Sunday, distributed Tuesday.
Corrections. If a number here looks wrong, comment below. Corrections get published.