Data cutoff: Sunday, 30 August 2026, end of day. Distributed: Tuesday, 1 September 2026. Source: JustTCG.
The Week in Brief
One Pokémon accounts for five of the ten cards on this week’s board.
Rayquaza. Thirteen Rayquaza prints sit in our coverage, spread across seven sets and three eras. Seven of them rose at least five percent in the week ending 30 August. The four Roaring Skies prints, a set from May 2015, rose together: +35.4%, +10.8%, +10.8% and +5.8%. Roaring Skies finished the week at +12.91% on average, the strongest set in our data by a factor of two.
There is a confirmed catalyst, and it is unusually clean by the standards of this market. On 20 August The Pokémon Company revealed the full English product lineup for Mega Evolution—Delta Reign, the sixth English Mega Evolution set, releasing 6 November. The headline card is Mega Rayquaza ex. The set had been named back in June; what landed on the 20th was the product lineup, the pack art and the date.
What makes this readable rather than assumed is the control sitting inside the same set. Roaring Skies has five cards in our coverage. Four are Rayquaza. The fifth is M Latios EX, same set, same rarity tier, same week. It moved +1.8%. The set did not move. The character did.
The counter-fact belongs in the same paragraph. The most expensive modern Rayquaza prints did nothing at all. Rayquaza VMAX Alternate Art Secret from Evolving Skies, at $1,249, finished the week at +0.2%. Rayquaza V Alternate Full Art from the same set finished at -0.1%. M Rayquaza EX Shiny Full Art from Ancient Origins, at $1,070, did not register a price change in thirty days due to the high price and low volume. More or less, it reached the older and cheaper prints and has not reached the expensive modern ones.
The Pokémon World Championships ran in San Francisco across 28–30 August, inside this window. Andrew Hedrick won the Masters division on Dragapult ex, which also took third and fourth. Alakazam Dudunsparce placed second. No Rayquaza deck appears anywhere in the results, and Rayquaza has no current Standard relevance, so the tournament was less of a catalyst relative to the movement, but it could be relevant in the coming week due to post-tournament activity.
Two things about the timing are worth stating plainly rather than smoothing over. The reveal was on the 20th; the largest single day of price movement was the 29th, nine days later. And the top card’s entire 35% move happened on that one day, from $180.70 to $250.17, before easing to $244.60 on the 30th. The two mid-board Rayquaza prints climbed gradually across four and three separate days respectively. Those are different shapes and we have laid the daily paths out below so you can see which is which.
Away from Rayquaza, last week’s story narrowed. Here is every chase tier card we track above $10, grouped by era, for the week ending 30 August, with last week’s figures alongside.
Era | Median card | Share declining | Last week |
|---|---|---|---|
Sun & Moon | +0.37% | 15% | +0.30% / 16% |
XY | +0.03% | 29% | 0.00% / 21% |
Sword & Shield | -0.11% | 57% | -0.22% / 62% |
Scarlet & Violet | -0.60% | 63% | -0.72% / 65% |
Mega Evolution | -3.01% | 86% | -1.11% / 75% |
Four of the five eras improved or held. One got materially worse. Twenty-four of the twenty-eight Mega Evolution era chase cards we track declined, against twenty-one of twenty-eight last week, and the median card fell nearly three times as far.
We owe a correction on emphasis. Last week we wrote that Phantasmal Flames had fallen nearly as hard as the set with the announced reprint and that the writing was on the wall. This week Phantasmal Flames finished at +0.44% and was the only Mega Evolution set that did not fall as a group. Destined Rivals itself slowed from -3.60% to -1.38%. The reprint pressure we described did not spread the way we suggested it might. What is falling is narrower and more specific than that: it is the Mega Evolution product line, and the newer the set the harder it is falling. Chaos Rising, released this May, was the worst set in the data at -5.60% with all five constituents down. Pitch Black, released in July, was second at -3.65%, also five for five.
Which leaves the week’s open question sitting in plain view. The confirmed catalyst for the top of this board is a Mega Evolution set arriving on 6 November. The worst performing era in our data, by a widening margin, is Mega Evolution. Those two facts are both true and we are not going to reconcile them for you.
The Top 10 Movers
One list. Gainers and decliners ranked together by the size of the move.
# | Card | Set | Era | 7D | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rayquaza EX (Full Art) | Roaring Skies | XY | +35.4% | $244.60 |
2 | M Rayquaza EX (61) | Roaring Skies | XY | +10.8% | $174.14 |
3 | M Rayquaza EX (Full Art) | Roaring Skies | XY | +10.8% | $491.57 |
4 | Mega Dragalge ex | Chaos Rising | Mega Evo | -10.2% | $36.11 |
5 | Rayquaza VMAX (101) | Crown Zenith | SWSH | +7.4% | $12.83 |
6 | Mega Greninja ex | Chaos Rising | Mega Evo | -7.2% | $183.09 |
7 | Mega Gengar ex | Ascended Heroes | Mega Evo | -6.7% | $984.26 |
8 | Rayquaza GX (Full Art) | Celestial Storm | S&M | +6.5% | $131.82 |
9 | Mew ex | Paldean Fates | S&V | -6.4% | $929.82 |
10 | M Gengar EX (Secret) | Phantom Forces | XY | +6.2% | $563.67 |
Seven day window, 23 to 30 August 2026. Prices are ungraded Near Mint. 87 of 345 tracked cards qualified this week. One qualifying card was held out of the board; the reason is below.
Why It Moved
Context for each of the ten top movers this week. Where the shape of the week matters, the daily closing price is printed.
1. Rayquaza EX (Full Art)
Catalyst: Delta Reign reveal
The whole move is one day. Six consecutive days at $180.70, then $250.17 on the 29th, then back to $244.60 on the 30th. Four price changes in thirty days on this card, so a step of that size is far outside how it normally behaves. A single decisive repricing that holds is a real event under our inclusion rule, and this one gave a little back within the window rather than holding flat, which is the pattern our artifact check is built to separate from a bad data point. It cleared. It is still one day, and one day is what it is.
2. M Rayquaza EX (61)
Catalyst: Delta Reign reveal
The cleanest shape on the board and last week’s number one, up 9.7% then, up 10.8% now, and up 32.5% over thirty days. It climbed on four separate days inside the window: $157.13, $159.58, $162.77, $172.77, $174.14. No single day carries it. This is the one that looks like accumulation rather than a repricing.
3. M Rayquaza EX (Full Art)
Catalyst: Delta Reign reveal
The most expensive Roaring Skies print we track. It drifted down to $436.64 early in the week and sat there for five days before stepping to $491.57 on the 29th, the same day as the number one card, and holding through the 30th.
4. Mega Dragalge ex
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
The largest decline on the board and the worst card in the worst set. Chaos Rising released in May 2026 and finished the week at -5.60% with all five of its chase constituents down. Dragalge fell on six of the seven days, no single day dominant, and sits at the floor of its thirty day range.
5. Rayquaza VMAX (101)
Catalyst: Delta Reign reveal
The cheapest card on the board at $12.83 and the only Rayquaza gainer outside XY and Sun & Moon. It rose across five straight days to $13.11 on the 28th, then eased on the 29th and 30th while the older prints were stepping up. Its sibling print, Rayquaza VMAX 102, rose 3.7% on the same days. Crown Zenith as a set finished at +4.31%.
6. Mega Greninja ex
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
Second week in a row on the board, -5.0% then and -7.2% now, and down 20.3% over thirty days. It has repriced on twenty-nine of the last thirty days and sits at the exact bottom of that range. The other Greninja print in the set fell 2.1% in the same week.
7. Mega Gengar ex
Catalyst: Mega Evolution era decline
A four step decline that ran from the 26th to the 29th and then stopped: $1,055.48 held for three days, then $1,028.68, $1,001.77, $992.86, $984.26, then flat. Down 20.3% over thirty days and at the floor of that range. Ascended Heroes finished at -3.75% with all four constituents down.
8. Rayquaza GX (Full Art)
Catalyst: Delta Reign reveal
Three upward steps between the 24th and the 27th, then flat for the last four days of the window. The Secret Rare version of the same card, at $305, did not move at all. Celestial Storm finished at +3.34% with no decliners.
9. Mew ex
Catalyst: modern set softening
The most consistent grind on the board and the only Scarlet & Violet card in the top ten. It declined on six of seven days from $993.47 to $929.82, with the largest single step landing on the last day of the window. Down 12.9% over thirty days and at the bottom of that range.
10. M Gengar EX (Secret)
Catalyst: none identified
One price change in thirty days, and it happened on the 29th: $530.94 to $563.67, then flat. There is no Gengar announcement we can find and no other Phantom Forces card moved with it. A card this static registering its only move of the month on the same day as the two Rayquaza steps is worth noting and nothing more than noting.
What we held out this week, and what happened to last week’s two
Last week we said two cards had been held off the board because their price series stepped in a way that did not look like market movement, and that both were being re-verified. Here is where they stand.
Latias & Latios GX (Alternate Full Art), Team Up. This card qualified again this week at -9.2% and is held out again. The reason is that the decline is the unwind of the step we flagged. The series ran $2,776.94 on 19 August, then $4,166.89 on the 20th, a 50% single day jump, then flat for seven days, then back to $3,783.92. Over thirty days the card is at exactly 0.0%. Printing -9.2% as a market decline would be reporting our own bad data point twice, once on the way up and once on the way down. It would also have been the fifth largest move on the board and it is not a move.
M Charizard EX (X) (Secret), Flashfire. Stepped from $1,000.62 to $1,501.23 on 20 August and has not changed price since. One price change in thirty days. It no longer qualifies on a seven day window because the step is now outside it, but it is still sitting in our index at +50% on a single unconfirmed observation. It appears in Early Signal this week for exactly that reason.
Both steps landed on 20 August, and we have not been able to source a market event for either. We are treating that date as suspect in our own series until the source data resolves it. The market index we mentioned in edition zero is held back for the same reason and arrives when this is settled.
What Qualifies as a Mover
A card clears all of these or it does not appear. This week 87 of 345 tracked cards qualified.
Era. XY forward.
Rarity. Chase tier only.
Price floor. $10 minimum.
Move floor. At least 2% across the week.
Direction floor. The move has to have gone somewhere rather than churned.
No sealed product.
No sets under 90 days old.
Coverage is 345 chase tier cards across 69 sets. The rule has not changed since edition one.
Informational only. The Spike Report is a market pricing publication. It describes observed secondary market activity for collectible trading cards. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation of any kind, and nothing in it is a directive to take any action with any card or collectible. Trading cards are collectibles, not securities. Prices can move sharply in either direction and past movement does not indicate future movement. Any decision you make is your own.
Early Signal
Three cards whose price data currently shows a recognizable pattern. This week: the most expensive card of the week’s headline character sitting perfectly still, a set-wide decline repricing every single day into its floor, and a card up 50% on one observation that has not been tested since. Included with Tome Intel and above.
Methodology. Data from JustTCG, the same source as the Chase Modern EN 50, so the two products cannot show contradictory prices for the same card. Coverage is 345 chase tier cards across 69 sets, XY forward. Cards qualify on a move of at least 2% that travelled in one direction rather than churning, and are then ranked by the size of that move. Each move is also weighed against the card’s own recent volatility.
Sources this week. Delta Reign product lineup, release date and Mega Rayquaza ex confirmed by The Pokémon Company’s 20 August reveal and reported by PokeBeach on the same date; set details cross checked against Bulbapedia, which dates the first reveal of the expansion to 18 June. World Championships dates, placings and archetypes from Bulbapedia and Limitless.
Cadence. Data cutoff end of day Sunday, distributed Tuesday.
Corrections. If a number here looks wrong, comment below. Corrections get published. Last week’s correction is in The Week in Brief above.