Data cutoff: Sunday, 23 August 2026, end of day. Distributed: Tuesday, 25 August 2026. Source: JustTCG.
The Week in Brief
The Destined Rivals reprint is no longer a Destined Rivals story. It has become a modern-set story.
Reprint reporting on that set began in early August. Sealed collapsed first and hard. What shows up in this week's data is the second stage: the pressure has spread past the set that caused it, and the whole modern end of the market is soft while the older end is not.
The split is clean enough to see in one table. This is every chase tier card we track above $10, grouped by era, for the week ending 23 August.
Era | Median card | Share declining |
|---|---|---|
Sun & Moon | +0.30% | 16% |
XY | 0.00% | 21% |
Sword & Shield | -0.22% | 62% |
Scarlet & Violet | -0.72% | 65% |
Mega Evolution | -1.11% | 75% |
Three quarters of Mega Evolution era chase cards fell. In the two oldest eras, fewer than a quarter did. That is not a couple of big movers dragging an average around, it is breadth, and breadth is harder to argue with.
By set, the two worst performers are Destined Rivals at -3.60% and Phantasmal Flames at -3.46%. Phantasmal Flames has not had an announced reprint of its own. It fell anyway, nearly as hard as the set that did. The writing is on the wall and scalpers are reacting accordingly. Every Destined Rivals chase card we track now sits within five percent of its ninety-day low, and two are sitting exactly on it. Phantasmal Flames is not far behind.
The board below carries the same signature without being arranged to. Every decliner in the top ten is Scarlet & Violet or late Sword & Shield. Every gainer is XY, Sun & Moon, or Evolving Skies.
The Pokémon World Championships open in San Francisco on Friday. Next week reads the aftermath.
The Top 10 Movers
One list. Gainers and decliners ranked together by the size of the move.
# | Card | Set | Era | 7D | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | M Rayquaza EX (61) | Roaring Skies | XY | +9.7% | $157.13 |
2 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex | Destined Rivals | S&V | -9.5% | $94.59 |
3 | Groudon EX (Full Art) | Primal Clash | XY | +9.2% | $173.98 |
4 | Marnie (Full Art) | Sword & Shield | SWSH | -9.1% | $34.11 |
5 | Gengar & Mimikyu GX (Alt Full Art) | Team Up | S&M | +7.7% | $1,734.49 |
6 | Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art Secret) | Evolving Skies | SWSH | +7.4% | $2,410.66 |
7 | Gengar & Mimikyu GX (Secret) | Team Up | S&M | +6.8% | $438.97 |
8 | Snorlax | Paldean Fates | S&V | -6.5% | $52.91 |
9 | Pikachu V (Full Art) | Brilliant Stars | SWSH | -6.4% | $25.05 |
10 | Milotic ex | Surging Sparks | S&V | -6.4% | $121.58 |
Seven day window, 16 to 23 August 2026. Prices are ungraded Near Mint. 79 of 345 tracked cards qualified this week.
Why It Moved
Context for each of the ten top movers this week.
1. M Rayquaza EX (61)
Catalyst: none identified
Moved on two days and held. Part of the broader firming across XY and Sun & Moon this week rather than anything specific to this card.
2. Team Rocket's Moltres ex
Catalyst: reprint expectations
The week's clearest story and the reason the rest of the board looks the way it does. Reprint reporting on Destined Rivals began in early August, when retailer and restock-tracking sources described a substantial run of booster boxes and Elite Trainer Boxes arriving late August into September. Sealed took the hit immediately. Singles followed more slowly, and this week all five Destined Rivals Special Illustration Rares we track declined together, 3.60% as a group, with Moltres taking the worst of it on a decline that ran every single day of the window. To be precise about what is and is not known: The Pokémon Company has not confirmed the reprint. Every account traces to retail and community sourcing. We are reporting an expectation that the market is already acting on, not a confirmed fact.
3. Groudon EX (Full Art)
Catalyst: none identified
One price change on one day, and it held for the rest of the week.
4. Marnie (Full Art)
Catalyst: none identified
Flat for a week, then stepped down across three consecutive days and stopped. No reprint news, tournament result or supply event attaches to it.
5. Gengar & Mimikyu GX (Alternate Full Art)
Catalyst: none identified
A gradual climb on three separate days. Both of its stablemates moved with it, which is the only reason it reads as something other than noise.
6. Umbreon VMAX (Alternate Art Secret)
Catalyst: none identified
The most expensive card on the board and the only Sword & Shield era gainer. Evolving Skies is a 2021 set, closer in market behavior to the vintage end than to the recent releases that fell this week. Worth watching whether that distinction holds.
7. Gengar & Mimikyu GX (Secret)
Catalyst: none identified
The same pattern as its Alternate Full Art, on the same days. Three Team Up Gengar & Mimikyu prints firmed in the same week with no announcement to explain it. Team Up is a 2019 set with no current competitive relevance, so this is collector-side movement of some kind.
8. Snorlax
Catalyst: modern set softening
Paldean Fates sits squarely in the part of the market under pressure. Five downward steps across the week, no single day dominant.
9. Pikachu V (Full Art)
Catalyst: modern set softening
Brilliant Stars was the third worst set this week at -3.27%. This card declined roughly in line with it.
10. Milotic ex
Catalyst: modern set softening
Declined on six of the seven days in the window, the most consistent grind on the board. Surging Sparks is another recent Scarlet & Violet set in the soft half of the market.
We changed the inclusion rule before the first edition, and here is why
Edition zero said a card needed a minimum number of recorded sales to qualify. No source in this market publishes reliable transaction counts, JustTCG included, so that measure was never available to us and the wording was wrong when we published it. Edition zero has been corrected and carries a dated note.
Our first replacement was to count how many days a card's price changed. That turned out to be worse, not better. A card can sell heavily on a single day and register exactly one price change, and under that rule it would have been thrown off the board for being inactive, which is the opposite of the truth. Groudon EX at number three is precisely that card.
What we use now asks a different question: did the price actually go somewhere? We compare the net change across the week against the total distance the price travelled getting there. A card that stepped once and held scores a perfect one. A card that wandered up and down and finished where it started scores near zero. A decisive repricing that sticks is a real event even if it happened once. Seven days of penny wobble is not an event at all, however many times it registers.
We also weigh each move against how that particular card normally behaves. A 9% week on a card that usually drifts half a percent is a different event from a 9% week on a card that swings routinely. That is the honest version of the thing sales volume would have told us.
What Qualifies as a Mover
A card clears all of these or it does not appear. This week 79 of 345 tracked cards qualified.
Era. XY forward.
Rarity. Chase tier only.
Price floor. $10 minimum.
Move floor. At least 2% across the week.
Direction floor. The move has to have gone somewhere rather than churned.
No sealed product.
No sets under 90 days old.
Two cards were held out of this week's board because their price series stepped in a way that does not look like market movement. Both are being re-verified against source. The market index we mentioned in edition zero is affected by the same question and arrives once that work is finished.
Informational only. The Spike Report is a market pricing publication. It describes observed secondary market activity for collectible trading cards. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation of any kind, and nothing in it is a directive to take any action with any card or collectible. Trading cards are collectibles, not securities. Prices can move sharply in either direction and past movement does not indicate future movement. Any decision you make is your own.
Early Signal
Three cards whose price data currently shows a recognizable pattern. This week: a quiet climb that stopped at its high, a persistent decline sitting at its low, and a card repricing every single day while going nowhere. Included with Tome Intel and above.
Methodology. Data from JustTCG, the same source as the Chase Modern EN 50, so the two products cannot show contradictory prices for the same card. Coverage is 345 chase tier cards across 69 sets, XY forward. Cards qualify on a move of at least 2% that travelled in one direction rather than churning, and are then ranked by the size of that move. Each move is also weighed against the card's own recent volatility.
Cadence. Data cutoff end of day Sunday, distributed Tuesday.
Corrections. If a number here looks wrong, comment below. Corrections get published.