Data cutoff: Sunday, 8 November 2026, end of day. Distributed: Tuesday, 10 November 2026. Source: JustTCG.
The Week in Brief
Three gainers and seven decliners, and the gainers are the story. Tinkaton ex (240), the Paldea Evolved full art, is the biggest move on the board at +31.1% to $12.31, up four of seven days, and it did it from under the floor: it started the week at $9.39. Nessa from the Lost Origin gallery is third at +16.6% on one Sunday step, and Sandygast, Paldea Evolved again, is ninth at +11.8%, in a week where almost everything else went down. The seven decliners are the modern-era markdown carrying on, and this week it sped back up: the Mega Evolution era's median card is -3.42% against -1.60% a week ago, with 89 percent of its 76 cards falling. Only one of the ten is over $100, and it is a big one: Mega Gengar ex (284) from Ascended Heroes, -13.7% to $603.15, down on every day of the week.
The Chase Modern EN 50 last printed $37,043.10 on 5 November, -0.18% on the week against the $37,110.94 it showed on 29 October, and -0.49% against $37,225.39 on 2 November, which was last week's Sunday close. One wrinkle to know: the index page refreshed on 9 November but its daily history stops at Thursday the 5th, so the figure above is three days short of our cutoff. The index is the fifty priciest chase cards and it has spent a month drifting; our board's expensive end did worse than drift. Cards at $100 or more had a median week of -1.46%, which is the whole universe's -1.41% with a little extra on it.
Figures are chase tier, $10 and up, sets at least ninety days old, ungraded Near Mint. Last-week columns are from Edition 11.
Era | Cards | Median card | Share declining | Last week median | Last week declining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sword & Shield | 223 | -1.05% | 67% | -0.64% | 61% |
Scarlet & Violet | 432 | -1.39% | 71% | -1.10% | 70% |
Mega Evolution | 76 | -3.42% | 89% | -1.60% | 71% |
Mega Evolution is the heavy row for a fourth week, and after lightening last week it got heavy again: median card -3.42% with 89 percent of its 76 cards falling, against -1.60% and 71% a week ago. Ascended Heroes is most of it, 24 of 27 down with a median card at -4.4%, and Pitch Black was worse on a smaller base, all 7 of its cards down with a median of -5.9%. Delta Reign landed on Friday the 6th, so the back catalogue spent the week being compared to a new set; that is the era-level reason and we found nothing more specific. Scarlet & Violet slipped to -1.39% on the median from -1.10%, and the large sets are still doing the work: Black Bolt had 42 of 52 down and White Flare 41 of 55, medians -2.2% and -1.4%. The strange part is Paldea Evolved, 23 up and 25 down with a median of -0.2%, the only large set in coverage that split the week, and it put two gainers in the ten. Sword & Shield is the calm row again at -1.05%, which still means 67 percent of it went down.
The whole board: median card -1.41% across 731 measured cards, 72 percent declining. 123 cards across our full coverage moved at least 5%, 15 of them up and 108 down. Call it seven decliners for every gainer at that size, against one and a half last week. Last week looked like the gainers were becoming a real number; this week says don't read too much into one week.
Product and tournaments, briefly. Delta Reign went on sale everywhere on Friday the 6th, and it is gated out of our data until early February. No Regional ran on the Limitless calendar this weekend; Gdańsk (31 October to 1 November, 1,739 players) was the last one and nothing on this board traces to it. Last week's Early Signal: Ice Rider Calyrex VMAX, the one-day step, got a twelve-cent nudge on Saturday and finished +1.1%, which is not the second step we said would change the read. The Brilliant Stars gold Arceus VSTAR, the cooling card, woke up a little, +4.6% to $19.11 on three up days. Mega Feraligatr ex, the slide, kept sliding, -10.7% to $61.17 and down on all seven days again; it finished 16th. Of last week's ten, Deino gave up another 8.3 percent and Darumaka another 7.2; N's Zoroark ex (-5.9%) and Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (-6.3%) kept falling at about half their pace; Team Rocket's Ariana (+6.2%) and N's Reshiram (+6.1%) bounced, the Reshiram on a churn; Grotle, Miraidon ex, Team Rocket's Moltres ex and the Crown Zenith Arceus VSTAR finished within two percent of where they started.
The Top 10 Movers
One list. Gainers and decliners ranked together by the size of the move.
# | Card | Set | Era | 7D | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tinkaton ex (240) | Paldea Evolved | S&V | +31.1% | |
2 | Boltund V (TG13) | Brilliant Stars Trainer Gallery | SWSH | -18.4% | |
3 | Nessa (TG27) | Lost Origin Trainer Gallery | SWSH | +16.6% | |
4 | Mega Gengar ex (284) | Ascended Heroes | Mega Evo | -13.7% | |
5 | Ceruledge (197) | Surging Sparks | S&V | -12.9% | |
6 | Alomomola (108) | Black Bolt | S&V | -12.9% | |
7 | Durant ex (236) | Surging Sparks | S&V | -12.7% | |
8 | Canari (291) | Ascended Heroes | Mega Evo | -12.2% | |
9 | Sandygast (214) | Paldea Evolved | S&V | +11.8% | |
10 | Bulbasaur (133) | Mega Evolution | Mega Evo | -11.7% |
Seven day window, 1 to 8 November 2026. Prices are ungraded Near Mint; the price column links to TCGplayer. 367 of 731 measured cards moved at least 2 percent, 234 of those cleared the direction and confirmation rules, and 133 were held out. Three of the held-out cards moved more than the tenth line; all three are named below.
Three gainers in ten, which is two more than last week. Four of the ten are cards under $15, and only one is over $100. The two Mega-era repeats of a kind, Mega Meganium ex (-11.3%) and Mega Feraligatr ex (-10.7%), finished 11th and 16th, just off the board again.
Why It Moved
Context for each of the ten, with the daily closes where the shape of the week is the story.
1. Tinkaton ex (240)
Catalyst: none identified
The biggest move on the board, and it came up through the floor to get there. $9.39 to $12.31, up four of seven with two down days and one flat, Wednesday the largest at 49 percent of the week: Monday added a dollar, Wednesday $1.85, and the back half of the week gave a little of it back. +22.0% over fourteen days, +41.7% over thirty, 95 percent of the way up its range, repriced 24 of 30. The thirty-day line is a staircase up: $8.69 on 10 October, over ten dollars for the first time on the 26th, back under it two days later, and then this. Paldea Evolved as a set split the week, 23 up and 25 down, and it has three cards among the fifteen biggest gainers in coverage, with the Annihilape ex full art held out below for churning. The set rotated out of Standard in April, so this is not a play thing. We looked for a reprint, a product or a video-game tie-in and found nothing dated inside the window.
2. Boltund V (TG13)
Catalyst: none identified
The biggest decliner, and the cleanest line in the ten. $13.67 to $11.15, down six of seven with one up day, and the week accelerated: Sunday the largest at 38 percent of the week, Saturday the second largest. -19.7% over fourteen days, -25.7% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 27 of 30. It was $15.00 on 10 October and the month since is a ramp down with only small bounces in it. The Brilliant Stars Trainer Gallery had 11 of 13 down with a median at -1.1%, so this is a gallery card falling far faster than its gallery. Nothing attaches to it that we could find.
3. Nessa (TG27)
Catalyst: none identified
The one you should read with the rule in mind. $12.30 to $14.34, up five of seven with one down day and one flat, but really $12.86 to $14.34 on Sunday: that one step is 71 percent of the week, just under the line where our rule asks for a later price to confirm it, and there is no later price yet. The four small up days before it are what keep it on the board. +19.2% over fourteen days, +12.8% over thirty, top of range, repriced 24 of 30. It spent October between $11.95 and $13.05, so Sunday took it clear above anything in the month. The Lost Origin gallery had 11 of 13 down, median -3.0%, which makes this the exception in its own set. If Monday's price holds, it is a move; if it gives the step back, the rule did its job a day late.
4. Mega Gengar ex (284)
Catalyst: Delta Reign released 6 November (pokemon.com, Serebii), the next Mega set, with prereleases the two weekends before. An era-level reason for the whole back catalogue, nothing specific to this card
The most money on the board by a distance. $698.59 to $603.15, down on all seven days, Tuesday the largest at 41 percent of the week at $38.66, and the steps shrank through the week: Sunday's was $2.43. -18.1% over fourteen days, -27.9% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 25 of 30. It was $855.00 on 1 October, $773.75 by the 15th, and has lost ground on 24 of the last 30 days. Ascended Heroes was -4.4% on the median with 24 of 27 down, so the set is leaning hard and this card is leaning three times as hard. The playable Mega Gengar ex is a different card; this is the special illustration.
5. Ceruledge (197)
Catalyst: none identified
Surging Sparks' first of two. $21.24 to $18.50, down on all seven days with no day doing more than 24 percent, which is as evenly spread as a 13 percent week gets. -13.8% over fourteen days, -20.6% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 29 of 30. The thirty-day shape is two legs: $24.72 on 6 October down to $21.17 by the 17th, a week of drifting back toward $22.51, and then this. Surging Sparks had 13 of 17 down with a median at -2.1%, and Ceruledge did six times the set.
6. Alomomola (108)
Catalyst: none identified
Black Bolt's entry. $20.44 to $17.81, down six of seven with one flat: down on Monday, quiet through the middle of the week, and down harder at the weekend, with Sunday the largest at 32 percent of the week. -13.5% over fourteen days, -18.5% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 19 of 30. The whole month is a staircase down from $22.76 on 1 October with only pennies of bounce in it, a dime or two at a time until this week, when the steps got bigger. Black Bolt had 42 of 52 cards fall, median -2.2%, so this is the set's direction at six times the set's pace.
7. Durant ex (236)
Catalyst: none identified
Surging Sparks' second entry and its expensive one. $33.64 to $29.36, down six of seven with one up day, the one up day a Tuesday worth $0.47, and then Friday the largest at 36 percent of the week. -15.5% over fourteen days, -22.8% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 27 of 30. It was $40.08 on 2 October, and the thirty-day line is a slow ramp down that steepened on Thursday. Same set as Ceruledge, same direction, twice the price.
8. Canari (291)
Catalyst: Delta Reign released 6 November (pokemon.com, Serebii), the next Mega set, with prereleases the two weekends before. An era-level reason for the whole back catalogue, nothing specific to this card
Ascended Heroes' second card in the ten, and the cheap one. $22.44 to $19.70, down six of seven with one up day, and Thursday the largest at 62 percent of the week: it lost $1.73 in one day and then sat within thirty cents of $19.99 for the rest of the week. That one day is under our three-quarters line and Sunday confirmed it, so it stays. -14.9% over fourteen days, -17.9% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 30 of 30. It opened October at $28.36, so the month is a slide with one step in it. Repriced every day of the thirty, so the feed is as live as they come.
9. Sandygast (214)
Catalyst: none identified
The third gainer and the second from Paldea Evolved. $11.65 to $13.03, up four of seven with two down days and one flat, Monday the largest at 46 percent and Wednesday close behind. +18.2% over fourteen days, +16.3% over thirty, top of range, repriced 24 of 30. The thirty-day view: it drifted from $11.95 down to $10.75 in mid October, climbed back through the last week of the month, and this week went past anything it printed in October. Same set as Tinkaton ex, same direction, and the same answer when we went looking for a reason.
10. Bulbasaur (133)
Catalyst: Delta Reign released 6 November (pokemon.com, Serebii), the next Mega set, with prereleases the two weekends before. An era-level reason for the whole back catalogue, nothing specific to this card
The only Mega Evolution base-set card in the ten. $17.25 to $15.23, down six of seven with one up day, the one up day worth two cents, and Tuesday the largest at 37 percent of the week. -9.1% over fourteen days, -7.2% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 30 of 30. This is the noisiest line on the board over thirty days: it fell to $14.26 on 5 October, climbed to $18.29 by the 18th, and sawed between sixteen and seventeen and a half dollars for the rest of the month before this week went one way. Mega Evolution as a set had 13 of 17 down with a median at -0.9%, mild for the era, and this card did twelve times the set.
What we held out
133 cards moved at least 2 percent and did not make it past the rules: 129 because the move churned rather than went somewhere, 4 because one day did the work and nothing afterwards confirmed it. Three of them moved more than the tenth line, and the first is the biggest move in the whole universe.
Annihilape ex (242), Paldea Evolved, +55.8%. It climbed four straight days from $6.49 to $11.56 on Thursday, sat there Friday and Saturday, and then gave back $1.49 on Sunday. The net is 54 percent of the distance it travelled, well under our line. It is the third Paldea Evolved card to run this week, and the one the market is still arguing about: if it holds $10.11 it will qualify on its own next week; if Sunday was the turn, the rule did its job.
Infernape (173), Twilight Masquerade, -14.7%. Up on three of the first four days to $13.47 on Thursday, then down three, with Sunday's $2.01 drop doing 60 percent of the week by itself. A card that climbs for half a week and then loses it all on one day is two stories, not one, and the net is 55 percent of what it travelled.
Meowth ex (107), Perfect Order, -12.8%: up $0.69 on Monday, down $1.68 on Tuesday, and a saw-tooth the rest of the way. The net is 41 percent of the distance travelled, which is exactly what the churn rule is for.
Two more worth a line, because both qualified and both missed. Mega Meganium ex (272), Ascended Heroes, was 11th at -11.3%, its second week in a row just off the board. Dudunsparce (229), Paldea Evolved, was 12th at -11.2%, the one Paldea Evolved card near the board that went the other way.
Coverage this week is every chase-tier card that closed Sunday at $10 or more, 731 cards across 40 sets. No card was pulled off the board by the review rule.
What qualifies as a mover
Chase tier, Sword & Shield onward, $10 or more, from a set at least ninety days old. At least 2 percent across the week. The move went somewhere rather than churned. If one day carried three-quarters or more of it, a later price change has to confirm it. No sealed product, no graded prices, no stale quotes. The full rules, the guards and what we don’t cover are on the how-it-works page, not here.
Informational only. The Spike Report is a market pricing publication. It describes observed secondary market activity for collectible trading cards. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation of any kind, and nothing in it is a directive to take any action with any card or collectible. Trading cards are collectibles, not securities. Prices can move sharply in either direction and past movement does not indicate future movement. Any decision you make is your own.
Early Signal
Three cards whose price data currently matches a pattern we track. This week: a Chilling Reign gold energy that barely moved for two weeks and then did its whole week in one Wednesday step, the Brilliant Stars gallery Zekrom that we held out a week ago at plus fourteen and has now spent eleven days inside a forty-cent band, and the Ascended Heroes Pikachu ex that has fallen on every one of the last fourteen days it repriced. Included with Tome Intel and above.
Methodology. Data from JustTCG, the same source as the Chase Modern EN 50, so the two products cannot show contradictory prices for the same card. Coverage is the rebuilt universe: every chase-tier card at $10 or more across Sword & Shield, Scarlet & Violet and Mega Evolution, from sets at least ninety days old, 731 cards across 40 sets this week. How the Spike Report works is on its own page: The Spike Report · Pokémon | How It Works.
What changed this week. Nothing in the rules. The Early Signal base-rate table still sits out until the new universe has enough history to recompute it. The Chase Index figure in the Brief is dated 5 November because that is where the index page’s daily history currently stops.
Sources this week. Set contents and release dates from the JustTCG set catalogue. Delta Reign’s 6 November release from pokemon.com and Serebii (6 November). Gdańsk Regional attendance and results from Limitless TCG. The 2026–27 Standard rotation (Paldea Evolved out from 10 April 2026) from Bulbapedia. Entries marked “none identified” mean no event we could find attaches to that specific card, not that the week was quiet.
Cadence. Data cutoff end of day Sunday, distributed Tuesday. Unchanged.
Corrections. If a number here looks wrong, comment below. Corrections get published.
