Data cutoff: Sunday, 1 November 2026, end of day. Distributed: Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Source: JustTCG.
The Week in Brief
Nine decliners and one gainer. Miraidon ex (243), the gold Paldean Fates card, is the first green line on the board in two weeks, +14.0% to $15.58, and it got there on a single Tuesday step that later prices backed up; more on that below. The other nine are the modern-era markdown carrying on, gentler than last week: Ascended Heroes has two cards in the ten instead of three, and the Mega Evolution era's median card is -1.60% against -3.60% a week ago. Five of the ten are cards under $15. Three are over $100, and those three are where the real money moved: N's Zoroark ex, Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex and the gold Arceus VSTAR from Crown Zenith.
The Chase Modern EN 50 stood at $37,267.89 on its 2 November refresh, which is Sunday's close, +0.26% on the week against the 37,172.80 it printed on 26 October. Flat on the month as well: -0.10% against 37,303.40 on 2 October. The index is the fifty priciest chase cards and it has spent a month going nowhere; our board's expensive end has not. Cards at $100 or more had a median week of -1.75%, cards under $100 -0.89%, so a flat index line is not the pricey end holding firm, it is fifty specific cards doing better than the pool around them.
Figures are chase tier, $10 and up, sets at least ninety days old, ungraded Near Mint. Last-week columns are from Edition 10.
Era | Cards | Median card | Share declining | Last week median | Last week declining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sword & Shield | 232 | -0.64% | 61% | -0.61% | 64% |
Scarlet & Violet | 438 | -1.10% | 70% | -1.53% | 74% |
Mega Evolution | 78 | -1.60% | 71% | -3.60% | 79% |
Mega Evolution is the heavy row for a third week, but it lightened: median card -1.60% with 71 percent of its 78 cards falling, against -3.60% and 79 percent a week ago. Ascended Heroes is still most of it, 24 of 29 down with a median card at -3.1%, which is half the pace of last week's -5.3%. Scarlet & Violet eased to -1.10% on the median from -1.53%, and the work there is being done by two sets: Black Bolt had 50 of 52 cards down and White Flare 56 of 60, medians -2.6% and -2.7%, the two worst large sets in our coverage. Sword & Shield is the calm row again at -0.64%, which still means 61 percent of it went down.
The whole board: median card -0.99% across 748 measured cards, 67 percent declining. 112 cards across our full coverage moved at least 5%, 43 of them up and 69 down. Call it one and a half decliners for every gainer at that size, against three and a third last week. That is the first week on the rebuilt universe where the gainers at that size are a real number rather than a rounding error, and one week is one week.
Tournaments and product, briefly. Gdańsk ran a Regional on Saturday and Sunday with 1,739 players, the first weekend under two thousand after Louisville, Nice and Puebla all cleared it. Nothing on the board moved on it that we could trace. The calendar is the thing to know: Delta Reign prereleases run through Thursday the 5th and the set lands everywhere on Friday the 6th, so the next Mega set is inside next week's window. Last week's Early Signal: Maushold ex was the Saturday step that needed a second price, and it got two small ones in the same direction, +2.3% on the week and churned. Chandelure VMAX stayed cool at +0.6%. Team Rocket's Crobat ex, the slide, stopped sliding and went +2.8%, which is the first one of those to turn. Of last week's ten, Timburr gave up another 10.7 percent and sits 11th this week, just off the board; Mega Venusaur ex (-7.5%), Mega Froslass ex (-7.3%) and Greninja ex (-7.0%) kept falling at about half their pace; Cinccino ex (+3.4%), Drayton (+2.4%) and Giratina VSTAR (+2.1%) bounced a little, and Archaludon ex and Mega Scrafty ex finished where they started.
The Top 10 Movers
One list. Gainers and decliners ranked together by the size of the move.
# | Card | Set | Era | 7D | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Grotle (164) | Temporal Forces | S&V | -19.5% | |
2 | Deino (146) | White Flare | S&V | -19.1% | |
3 | Team Rocket's Ariana (237) | Destined Rivals | S&V | -16.8% | |
4 | N's Zoroark ex (286) | Ascended Heroes | Mega Evo | -15.0% | |
5 | N's Reshiram (167) | Journey Together | S&V | -14.2% | |
6 | Miraidon ex (243) | Paldean Fates | S&V | +14.0% | |
7 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (281) | Ascended Heroes | Mega Evo | -12.7% | |
8 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex (229) | Destined Rivals | S&V | -12.4% | |
9 | Darumaka (097) | Black Bolt | S&V | -11.9% | |
10 | Arceus VSTAR (Secret) (GG70) | Crown Zenith: Galarian Gallery | SWSH | -11.1% |
Seven day window, 25 October to 1 November 2026. Prices are ungraded Near Mint; the price column links to TCGplayer. 364 of 748 measured cards moved at least 2 percent, 205 of those cleared the direction and confirmation rules, and 159 were held out. Two of the held-out cards moved more than the tenth line; both are named below.
One gainer in ten, which is one more than last week. Five of the ten are cards under $15, and the three over $100 are the three with the most money moving. Timburr, third on last week's board, fell another 10.7 percent and finished 11th, so it is the one repeat that is not on the list.
Why It Moved
Context for each of the ten, with the daily closes where the shape of the week is the story.
1. Grotle (164)
Catalyst: none identified
The biggest move on the board belongs to a $13 Illustration Rare. $15.77 to $12.70, down five of seven with one up day and one flat, Friday the largest at 40 percent of the week. The shape is a stall and a drop: it held between $14.74 and $14.79 from Tuesday to Thursday and then lost $2.09 over Friday and the weekend. -15.1% over fourteen days, -30.9% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 27 of 30. The thirty-day view says this is the second leg of a longer fall: it was $18.37 on 3 October, steadied in the mid-fifteens through the middle of the month, and started again a week ago. Temporal Forces as a set was -0.47% on the median with 20 of 34 down, which is to say the set barely moved and this card did.
2. Deino (146)
Catalyst: none identified
White Flare's entry, and the cleanest line on the board. $15.73 to $12.72, down six of seven with one flat day, and Wednesday through Friday did 86 percent of it between them. -18.4% over fourteen days, -22.4% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 21 of 30. The useful part is what came before: it sat between $15.59 and $16.43 for the first three weeks of October, drifting a few cents a day, and then dropped three dollars in a week. White Flare had 56 of 60 cards down with a median at -2.7%, the worst large set in our coverage, and this is that set at seven times the set's pace.
3. Team Rocket's Ariana (237)
Catalyst: none identified
$14.57 to $12.12, down six of seven with one up day, the one up day a fourteen-cent Monday, and the week accelerated: the last four days did 72 percent of it. -17.3% over fourteen days, -25.6% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 29 of 30, which is every day in the month, so the feed is as live as they come. It was $16.28 on 3 October and has not had two up days in a row since 19 October. Destined Rivals had 18 of 22 down, median -1.9%, and puts two Team Rocket cards in the ten; this is the cheaper one. We looked for a reprint wave, a restock or a product and found nothing dated inside the window.
4. N's Zoroark ex (286)
Catalyst: Ascended Heroes supply — staggered product waves and reprints, with buyer attention on 30th Celebration (TCGplayer price trends, 13 October); Delta Reign prereleases 24 October to 5 November, set lands 6 November (TCGplayer, 21 October; ICv2, 1 October). An era-level reason, nothing specific to this card
The first of three cards over $100 and the one that fell on every day of the week. $120.71 to $102.63, Wednesday the largest at 30 percent and Saturday close behind, which is as evenly spread as a 15 percent week gets. -21.3% over fourteen days, -27.1% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 25 of 30. It sat within twenty cents of $140.97 for the first week of October, started slipping on the 10th and has not stopped: $140.80 then, $102.63 now. Ascended Heroes was -3.1% on the median with 24 of 29 down, so the set is still leaning and this card is leaning five times as hard. The playable N's Zoroark ex is a different card from a different set; this is the special illustration, and nothing we could find happened to it specifically.
5. N's Reshiram (167)
Catalyst: none identified
$13.59 to $11.66, down five of seven with two up days, Tuesday the largest at 36 percent. This one is the noisiest line in the ten: -11.1% over fourteen days, -21.7% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 29 of 30, but the thirty days are a saw-tooth, with seven separate bounces of a quarter or more, one of them over a dollar, before the week finally went one way. Journey Together is the odd set here. It was +0.53% on the median with only 4 of 11 down, one of the few sets in coverage that leaned up, and this card went the other way. Nothing attaches to it that we could find.
6. Miraidon ex (243)
Catalyst: none identified
The one gainer, and it comes with an asterisk you should read. $13.67 to $15.58, but really $13.47 to $15.42 on Tuesday: that one step is 76 percent of the week, over the line where our rule asks for a later price to confirm it. Thursday's $0.28 move in the same direction is the confirmation, and it is a small one, so this card is on the board by the letter of the rule rather than its spirit. Context: +3.5% over fourteen days, +3.9% over thirty, 95 percent of the way up its range, repriced 23 of 30, and the thirty-day shape is a card that spent October between $14.40 and $15.10, dipped to $13.47 for five days and then stepped back above where it had been. Paldean Fates was -0.29% on the median with 5 of 10 down, split down the middle. Read it as a card returning to a number it already held, with a bit on top.
7. Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (281)
Catalyst: Ascended Heroes supply — staggered product waves and reprints, with buyer attention on 30th Celebration (TCGplayer price trends, 13 October); Delta Reign prereleases 24 October to 5 November, set lands 6 November (TCGplayer, 21 October; ICv2, 1 October). An era-level reason, nothing specific to this card
The most money on the board. $207.35 to $180.97, down six of seven with one up day, Saturday the largest at 24 percent, and Sunday's up day was $0.41. -22.4% over fourteen days, -27.8% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 24 of 30. It was $250.81 on 3 October and has lost ground on 13 of the last 14 days it repriced; the steps got bigger in the back half of the week, not smaller. Same set, same shape and the same era-level story as the Zoroark above it, with twice the price tag.
8. Team Rocket's Moltres ex (229)
Catalyst: none identified
Destined Rivals' second entry and its expensive one. $65.96 to $57.79, down six of seven with one up day, Friday the largest at 25 percent, and the last four days each took more than a dollar. -16.8% over fourteen days, -31.6% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 28 of 30. The thirty-day line is the one to look at: $84.43 on 3 October, $69.75 by the 15th, ten days drifting between $70.34 and $65.96, and then this week. Two legs down with a rest in between, and the second leg is not done falling by the look of Sunday.
9. Darumaka (097)
Catalyst: none identified
Black Bolt's entry. $13.63 to $12.01, down five of seven with two flat days: flat Monday and Tuesday at $13.63, then down on every one of the next five, Wednesday the largest at 33 percent. -15.7% over fourteen days, -22.6% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 24 of 30, and the whole month is a staircase down from $15.51 with no step up anywhere in it. Black Bolt had 50 of 52 cards fall, median -2.6%; a basic-stage Illustration Rare at twelve dollars is the kind of card that gets marked down a quarter at a time, and that is what the daily closes look like.
10. Arceus VSTAR (Secret) (GG70)
Catalyst: none identified
The one Sword & Shield card in the ten and the third over $100. $175.24 to $155.76, down six of seven with one flat day, Monday the largest at 32 percent and Sunday the flat one. -15.3% over fourteen days, -22.8% over thirty, bottom of range, repriced 22 of 30. It was $201.86 on 3 October, spent the middle of the month sitting at $183.94 for four days, and then the slide restarted and sped up. Crown Zenith's Galarian Gallery was -0.96% on the median with 25 of 39 down, a split set, so this is the card and not the gallery. One wrinkle for the paid section: the other gold Arceus VSTAR, the Brilliant Stars one, is up 16 percent on the month and has not moved in two and a half weeks. Same Pokémon, same rarity, opposite month.
What we held out
159 cards moved at least 2 percent and did not make it past the rules: 153 because the move churned rather than went somewhere, 6 because one day did the work and nothing afterwards confirmed it. Two of them moved more than the tenth line, both gainers, both Sword & Shield gallery cards, and both the same shape.
Lunatone (GG11), Crown Zenith: Galarian Gallery, +15.4%. It spent Monday to Wednesday wobbling between $10.11 and $10.43, then climbed four straight days with Sunday the biggest step, $11.20 to $12.04. The early wobble means the net is 68 percent of the distance it travelled, just under our line. If it keeps going it will qualify next week on its own; if Sunday was the top, the rule did its job.
Zekrom (TG05), Brilliant Stars Trainer Gallery, +14.1%: up three straight days to $15.74 on Wednesday, down two, up two, and the net is 65 percent of what it travelled. A card that gives back a third of its climb mid-week and then recovers it is a card the market is still arguing about, which is exactly what the churn rule is for.
Two more worth a line, because both qualified and both missed. Timburr (125) was 11th at -10.7%, a repeat from last week's board. Ice Rider Calyrex VMAX (Secret) (202), Chilling Reign, was 12th at +10.7% and is one of this week's Early Signal cards, because 85 percent of its week happened on one Tuesday.
No card in the universe closed Sunday under $10 and no card was pulled off the board by the review rule this week.
What qualifies as a mover
Chase tier, Sword & Shield onward, $10 or more, from a set at least ninety days old. At least 2 percent across the week. The move went somewhere rather than churned. If one day carried three-quarters or more of it, a later price change has to confirm it. No sealed product, no graded prices, no stale quotes. The full rules, the guards and what we don’t cover are on the how-it-works page, not here.
Informational only. The Spike Report is a market pricing publication. It describes observed secondary market activity for collectible trading cards. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation of any kind, and nothing in it is a directive to take any action with any card or collectible. Trading cards are collectibles, not securities. Prices can move sharply in either direction and past movement does not indicate future movement. Any decision you make is your own.
Early Signal
Three cards whose price data currently matches a pattern we track. This week: a Chilling Reign Secret Rare that sat at one price for two weeks and did its whole week in one Tuesday step, the Brilliant Stars gold Arceus VSTAR that is up 16 percent on the month and has not moved in seventeen days while its Crown Zenith twin sits tenth on the board, and the Ascended Heroes slide that has fallen on every day it repriced for a fortnight. Included with Tome Intel and above.
Methodology. Data from JustTCG, the same source as the Chase Modern EN 50, so the two products cannot show contradictory prices for the same card. Coverage is the rebuilt universe: every chase-tier card at $10 or more across Sword & Shield, Scarlet & Violet and Mega Evolution, from sets at least ninety days old, 748 cards across 43 sets this week, all of which closed above the floor. How the Spike Report works is on its own page: The Spike Report · Pokémon | How It Works.
What changed this week. Nothing in the rules. The Early Signal base-rate table still sits out until the new universe has enough history to recompute it.
Sources this week. Set contents and release dates from the JustTCG set catalogue. Gdańsk Regional attendance from Limitless TCG. Ascended Heroes supply notes from TCGplayer’s price-trends column of 13 October. Delta Reign’s prerelease window of 24 October to 5 November and release date of 6 November from TCGplayer’s set preview (21 October) and ICv2 (1 October). Entries marked “none identified” mean no event we could find attaches to that specific card, not that the week was quiet.
Cadence. Data cutoff end of day Sunday, distributed Tuesday. Unchanged.
Corrections. If a number here looks wrong, comment below. Corrections get published.
