The Spike Report · Pokémon | Edition 09

1. Arceus VSTAR (Secret) (184)
Catalyst: none identified
The biggest move on the board and the one we trust least as a seven-day figure. $15.17 to $18.44, but look at the days: $15.17 → $14.64 → $17.89 → $18.02 → $18.30 → $18.44 → $18.44 → $18.44. Tuesday the 13th carried 99 percent of the whole week in one $3.25 step, and the three small rises that followed are what let it past our confirmation rule rather than into the held-out list. +10.3% over thirty days, sitting at the top of its range, repriced 21 of 30 days against a universe median of 22. Brilliant Stars as a set was -1.99% on the median with 8 of 11 down, so this is one card, not a set. We looked for a reason and did not find one: no reprint, no product, no event we could attach to it.

2. Sylveon ex (156)
Catalyst: Prismatic Evolutions reprint wave — ETB reprints confirmed through distributors on 23 September, and TCGplayer’s 13 October price-trends column ties the set’s chase cards to the September supply
The most expensive card to fall this week and the second-biggest move on the board, $467.70 to $369.90. Down on five of seven days, repriced 16 of 30, -22.4% over fourteen days and -30.6% over thirty, at the bottom of its thirty-day range. The caveat: Sunday alone was a $53.48 step, 55 percent of the week, and Monday morning’s print had come part of the way back to $388.66. The month is not in doubt. The precise size of this one week is softer than the table makes it look. Prismatic Evolutions put 29 of its 33 cards down this week, median -2.51%.

3. Pikachu ex (276)
Catalyst: Ascended Heroes supply — staggered product waves and reprints, with buyer attention on 30th Celebration (TCGplayer price trends, 13 October); Delta Reign lands 6 November
On the board for a second straight week, and the cleanest decline on it. $810.72 to $685.22, down on all seven days, every bit of the movement in one direction. -26.0% over fourteen days, -28.3% over thirty. We said last week this card was bleeding in a straight line; it still is, and the line has not even wobbled. Ascended Heroes is the worst set in our coverage this week, 24 of 28 down with a median card at -6.13%. The set is a staggered release that keeps arriving, there’s a new Mega Evolution expansion three weeks out, and the most expensive card in the set is the one that feels it first.

4. Carmine (217)
Catalyst: none identified
$50.23 to $43.22, down on all seven days, largest single day only 30 percent of the week, repriced 22 of 30. -13.7% over fourteen days and -19.5% over thirty, at the bottom of its range. Twilight Masquerade had 18 of 23 cards down, so the set is leaning the same way, just not this hard. A trainer SIR falling steadily with no event attached is simply a card being marked down.

5. Spheal (199)
Catalyst: none identified; crossed our $10 floor
Here because it crossed a line we drew. $9.28 to $10.54, up on six of seven days, repriced 27 of 30, which is busy for a card this cheap. The longer view is calmer: +1.7% over fourteen days and +8.2% over thirty. A fifty-cent Spheal is a fifty-cent Spheal. It makes the board because 13.6 percent is 13.6 percent and the rules do not care about the dollar amount; you are allowed to.

6. N's Reshiram (167)
Catalyst: none identified
$12.64 to $14.23, up on six of seven, repriced 28 of 30, the largest day 31 percent of the week, which is about as evenly spread as a climb gets. One wrinkle: it is still -5.3% over thirty days, so this is a card recovering ground it lost in September rather than one breaking out, and it sits 56 percent of the way up its thirty-day range. Journey Together as a set went the other way, 8 of 10 down.

7. Koraidon ex (247)
Catalyst: none identified
$21.98 to $19.30, down six of seven with one two-cent up day, repriced 24 of 30. -15.4% over fourteen days, -16.3% over thirty, at the bottom of its range. Scarlet & Violet base was -0.96% on the median with 14 of 19 down, so the box-art legendary is falling faster than its set. Nothing we could find happened to it.

8. Emolga (112)
Catalyst: none identified
$10.26 to $11.50, up on five of seven days with one flat day and a one-cent dip, repriced 27 of 30 and +19.9% over fourteen days. The thirty-day number is only +2.2%, so like N’s Reshiram this is a bounce off a September low rather than a new high; it sits 90 percent up its range. Black Bolt is the biggest set in our coverage at 54 cards and 44 of them fell, so Emolga is the exception, not the set.

9. Dragapult ex (165)
Catalyst: Prismatic Evolutions reprint wave — see Sylveon ex above
Prismatic Evolutions’ second entry and the tidier of the two. $101.78 to $90.18, down on six of seven with one flat day at the start, largest day 28 percent of the week, repriced 20 of 30. -13.3% over fourteen days, -13.5% over thirty, at the bottom of its range. Where Sylveon’s week leaned on Sunday, Dragapult’s was a little every day.

10. Iono's Bellibolt ex (279)
Catalyst: Ascended Heroes supply — see Pikachu ex above
Second appearance in three editions. $46.65 to $41.36, down on all seven days, repriced 24 of 30, -22.8% over fourteen days and -28.3% over thirty, at the bottom of its range. Most of the week came early: Monday was 36 percent of it and the last four days were nearly flat, which is what a card looks like when it is finding a floor rather than falling through one. We’d want another week before saying that out loud.