Data cutoff: Wednesday, 30 September 2026, end of day. Distributed: Friday, 2 October 2026. Source: JustTCG.
The Week in Brief
Edition one. A much quieter week than our debut — only 26 of 212 tracked cards cleared the movers bar this week, versus 36 two weeks ago, and only four cards moved 5% or more. No single story dominates, which is itself worth saying plainly rather than manufacturing drama where there isn't any.
The one thread worth pulling on: Olaf – Happy Passenger, which closed edition zero down 5.4%, is down another 6.5% this week. Two straight editions of decline on the same card is a pattern now, not a coincidence of timing — and we still don't have a reason for it.
Wilds Unknown, the set that dominated our first two editions, is still leaning negative — 16 of its 20 chase cards down — but the moves themselves are smaller. Whatever was happening to that set in September looks to be settling rather than continuing to worsen.
Era | Median card | Share declining |
|---|---|---|
Enchanted era (Sets 1–8) | 0.0% | 47.7% |
Iconic era (Set 9 onward) | 0.0% | 45.0% |
Both eras sit at a flat median this week — about as close to equilibrium as this market gets. The Wilds Unknown breakdown, for continuity with the last two editions:
Set | Median move | Share declining |
|---|---|---|
Wilds Unknown | -0.8% | 80% (16 of 20) |
Every other Iconic-era set | roughly flat | ~43% |
Four cards across our full coverage moved at least 5% this week, down from fifteen last edition.
The Top 10 Movers
Gainers and decliners, ranked together by size of move.
# | Card | Set | Era | 7D | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Olaf - Happy Passenger | Shimmering Skies | Enchanted | -6.5% | $97.20 |
2 | Ariel - Sonic Warrior | Ursula's Return | Enchanted | -6.3% | $166.22 |
3 | Sisu - Divine Water Dragon | Rise of the Floodborn | Enchanted | -6.2% | $51.30 |
4 | What Else Can I Do? | Wilds Unknown | Iconic | -5.9% | $64.48 |
5 | Eeyore - In the Way | Winterspell | Iconic | -4.8% | $597.19 |
6 | Mickey Mouse - Artful Rogue | The First Chapter | Enchanted | +4.8% | $191.92 |
7 | The Leviathan - Guardian of Atlantis | Wilds Unknown | Iconic | +4.7% | $70.48 |
8 | The Black Cauldron | Whispers in the Well | Iconic | +4.7% | $88.20 |
9 | Prince Naveen - Ukulele Player | Shimmering Skies | Enchanted | -4.5% | $48.22 |
10 | Goofy - Super Goof | Ursula's Return | Enchanted | +4.3% | $62.52 |
Seven day window, 23 September to 30 September 2026, end of day. Prices are ungraded Near Mint. 26 of 212 tracked chase-tier cards qualified. One card (Sisu – Empowered Sibling) was held for an unconfirmed single-day move; 21 more were held out by the artifact guard, explained below.
Why It Moved
Quiet week, same honesty policy — the story behind each of the ten, or an admission there isn't one.
1. Olaf - Happy Passenger
Catalyst: none identified — but this is now a two-edition trend
Flat at $103.91 for four days, down to $101.76, down to $99.59, down to $97.20. That's the exact price it closed edition zero at two weeks ago, and it's been sliding since: -5.4% then, -6.5% now. Nothing we can point to — it's just quietly getting cheaper.
2. Ariel - Sonic Warrior
Catalyst: none identified
Flat at $177.44 for five days, then two steps down: $172.68, then $166.22. A clean, simple decline on Ursula's Return's steepest mover this week.
3. Sisu - Divine Water Dragon
Catalyst: none identified
$54.72 held for four days, a step to $53.08, then $51.30 to close. Rise of the Floodborn is one of the oldest sets we track and this card has been quiet for months — worth a glance, not an alarm.
4. What Else Can I Do?
Catalyst: none identified — Wilds Unknown's third soft week running
$68.49 flat for three days, down to $67.46, $66.00, $64.48 to close. Wilds Unknown is still leaning negative — 16 of its 20 chase cards down this week — but the moves are smaller than the first two editions. This set's rough patch looks to be cooling, not ending.
5. Eeyore - In the Way
Catalyst: none identified — though Eeyore's own set just got some company
$627.03 flat for five days, down to $610.26, then $597.19. Funny timing: Illumineer's Quest - The Great Hunny Rescue, a new Winnie the Pooh co-op product, released today — the same Eeyore who stars here is now also the face of a different product. We checked for a connection and didn't find one; the decline started before the new product's release date was even widely known.
6. Mickey Mouse - Artful Rogue
Catalyst: none identified
Flat at $183.21 for five days, then a step up to $187.58, then $191.92 to close. The week's second-best gainer, on one of the game's original 204.
7. The Leviathan - Guardian of Atlantis
Catalyst: none identified
A choppier path than most of this week's board: $67.37, up to $68.62, down to $66.44, up to $69.53, up to $70.48. Directional efficiency is lower here than most — it moved around more than it went anywhere — but it still cleared our bar.
8. The Black Cauldron
Catalyst: none identified
$84.30 flat for four days, up to $86.28, then $88.20 to close. Whispers in the Well's best performer this week.
9. Prince Naveen - Ukulele Player
Catalyst: none identified
$50.51 held for three days, down to $49.52, flat, down to $48.22 to close. A quiet decline on an older Shimmering Skies card.
10. Goofy - Super Goof
Catalyst: none identified
$59.97 flat for five days, up to $61.08, then $62.52 to close. Ursula's Return had one card up here and one down two spots earlier — a quiet week split right down the middle.
What we held out
One card, Sisu – Empowered Sibling, moved on a single Wednesday jump with nothing before or after to confirm it, so it's held rather than reported. 21 more got stopped by the artifact guard — one day carrying at least 75% of the week's move. Arthur – Wizard's Apprentice is the clearest example (-9.2%, almost all of it from one Friday), and it's in Early Signal below instead.
The short version of our rules
Chase tier only (Enchanted and Iconic), $10 price floor, at least a 2% move that actually went somewhere rather than churned, confirmed by a later price change if one day carried most of it, no sealed product, nothing under 90 days old. Coverage is 212 chase-tier cards across 14 main sets. Full methodology lives on our how-it-works page.
This is a pricing publication describing observed secondary-market activity for collectible trading cards. It's not investment or financial advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or grade anything. Trading cards are collectibles, not securities — prices move, and past movement doesn't predict future movement.
Early Signal
Three cards worth watching, including two we've been tracking since edition zero. Included with Tome Intel and above.
Data: JustTCG, same source as the TCG Arbitrage dashboard. 212 chase-tier cards across 14 main sets, The First Chapter forward. Full rules on our methodology page.
Cadence: data cutoff end of day Wednesday, published Friday.
Corrections: if something here looks wrong, tell us. We'll fix it and say so.