NFL Recap & Results | September 27, 2026

Week 3's Sunday slate had its share of drama and a lot of collateral damage. Baltimore beat Dallas on a 56-yard field goal with one second left in the NFL's first regular season game in Brazil, backup quarterback Marcus Mariota ended Seattle's franchise-best 12-game winning streak, and Denver rallied from 16 points down at halftime to beat the Rams on Sunday night. Around all of it, the injury list kept growing, with Baker Mayfield's dislocated thumb the latest quarterback casualty. Here's how it all played out, plus a look at how the preview predictions and season-to-date record held up.

Loop's 56-Yarder Gives Baltimore a Walk-Off Win in Rio

Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31

Dallas jumped out to a 10-0 lead, Baltimore answered with two Derrick Henry touchdown runs and led 24-13 after Lamar Jackson's 4-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter, and then the game turned into a punch-for-punch finish. Dak Prescott's 19-yard touchdown to Jake Ferguson and a two-point conversion to CeeDee Lamb cut it to three, and Turpin's 9-yard run put Dallas up 28-24 with 9:46 left. Jackson answered with a 2-yard touchdown pass to Hibner with 1:34 to play, Brandon Aubrey tied it at 31 with a 23-yard field goal with 10 seconds left, and Tyler Loop won it from 56 yards with one second on the clock. Jackson finished 15-of-20 for 186 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover, and Baltimore rushed 38 times for 192 yards.

Dallas actually out-gained Baltimore, 415 yards to 378, with Prescott going 25-of-40 for 276 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. But the Cowboys lost a fumble, had a field goal blocked, and were flagged seven times for 88 yards in a game that came down to the final snap. Baltimore also paid a price: centers Ethan Pocic (knee) and Jovaughn Gwyn (ankle) both left and did not return.

BAL 34 · DAL 31

THE CARD, GRADED · BAL @ DAL · final BAL 34, DAL 31

The line DAL +3.5 · total 53.5 (closed +3.5 · 54.5)

Our number DAL -1.1 · total 49.7

Side BAL -3.5 (Toss-up) — Missed · BAL by 3 · closing-line value +0

Total Over 53.5 (Toss-up) — Cleared · 65 points · closing-line value +1

Mariota Beats the Champs and Ends Seattle's 12-Game Streak

Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33

Washington entered 0-2 and without Jayden Daniels, and 32-year-old Marcus Mariota gave it a first win in the most unlikely way possible: 19-of-31 for 183 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers, to Rachaad White, Treylon Burks, and Terry McLaurin. Seattle's Sam Darnold returned from injury and put up huge numbers, 31-of-45 for 379 yards and four touchdowns, including two to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who finished with 10 catches for 128 yards. But Darnold also threw two interceptions, the second a 50-yard pick-six by backup linebacker Kain Medrano that made it 33-24 with about four minutes left.

Seattle cut it to 33-31 on a 7-yard touchdown to Cooper Kupp with under three minutes to play, but Mariota sealed it with a 9-yard run on third-and-7 with 1:15 remaining. Three Seattle turnovers produced 21 Washington points, and the Seahawks' 437 total yards to Washington's 258 did not matter. Seattle, the reigning champion, saw a franchise-best 12-game winning streak end in its first loss of the season.

SEA 31 · WAS 33

THE CARD, GRADED · SEA @ WAS · final SEA 31, WAS 33

The line WAS +7.5 · total 40.5 (closed +8.5 · 40.5)

Our number WAS +6.3 · total 42.7

Side SEA -7.5 (Toss-up) — Missed · WAS by 2 · closing-line value +1

Total Under 40.5 (Toss-up) — Missed · 64 points · closing-line value +0

Denver Erases a 16-Point Halftime Deficit to Beat the Rams

Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30

Los Angeles controlled the first half without Puka Nacua, who was inactive: a 5-yard Matthew Stafford touchdown pass to Tyler Higbee and three Harrison Mevis field goals made it 16-0 at the break. Then Denver flipped the game in the third quarter, scoring 16 points on touchdown passes from Bo Nix to Bryant (5 yards) and Adkins (8 yards), each followed by a successful two-point conversion. Mevis kicked a 48-yard field goal to put the Rams back up three, but Talanoa Hufanga stepped in front of a Stafford pass and returned it for a touchdown to make it 23-19, and Mumpfield's 48-yard touchdown put Los Angeles back in front, 26-23, with 3:46 left.

Nix finished the job, running one yard for the winning touchdown with 48 seconds remaining. He finished 17-of-34 for 186 yards with two touchdown passes and an interception, and Denver's defense sacked Stafford four times and hit him 14. Stafford threw for 390 yards and two touchdowns on 55 attempts but also two interceptions, and the Rams out-gained Denver 482 yards to 257 while committing 13 penalties for 91 yards.

LAR 26 · DEN 30

THE CARD, GRADED · LAR @ DEN · final LAR 26, DEN 30

The line DEN +2.5 · total 43.5 (closed +1.5 · 43.5)

Our number DEN +1 · total 38.5

Side DEN +2.5 (Lean) — Cleared · DEN by 4 · closing-line value +1

Total Under 43.5 (Lean) — Missed · 56 points · closing-line value +0

The Rest of the Slate

Patriots 6, Jaguars 35: New England's offense never found the end zone, managing two field goals while Drake Maye threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes and Jacksonville added two rushing scores.

THE CARD, GRADED · NE @ JAX · final NE 6, JAX 35

The line JAX -3 · total 45.5 (closed -2.5 · 46.5)

Our number JAX -0.2 · total 35.2

Side JAX -3 (Toss-up) — Cleared · JAX by 29 · closing-line value -0.5

Total Under 45.5 (Strong) — Cleared · 41 points · closing-line value -1

Titans 7, Giants 12: Jameis Winston steadied New York without Jaxson Dart, who is out for the season after knee surgery, in a game where the Titans' offense never got going.

THE CARD, GRADED · TEN @ NYG · final TEN 7, NYG 12

The line NYG -2.5 · total 37.5 (closed -2.5 · 37.5)

Our number NYG -2.3 · total 41.3

Side NYG -2.5 (Toss-up) — Cleared · NYG by 5 · closing-line value +0

Total Under 37.5 (Toss-up) — Cleared · 19 points · closing-line value +0

Chargers 16, Bills 24: Buffalo handled Los Angeles at home, sending the Chargers to 0-3, though cornerback Christian Benford left with a toe injury.

THE CARD, GRADED · LAC @ BUF · final LAC 16, BUF 24

The line BUF -7 · total 49.5 (closed -7.5 · 50.5)

Our number BUF -7.7 · total 51.4

Side BUF -7 (Toss-up) — Cleared · BUF by 8 · closing-line value +0.5

Total Over 49.5 (Toss-up) — Missed · 40 points · closing-line value +1

Jets 24, Lions 31: Jahmyr Gibbs scored three second-half touchdowns for Detroit, which led 24-10 in the fourth quarter before the Jets tied it on a two-point conversion with four minutes to play. Jets running back Breece Hall left with a thigh injury.

THE CARD, GRADED · NYJ @ DET · final NYJ 24, DET 31

The line DET -6.5 · total 48.5 (closed -6.5 · 49.5)

Our number DET -0.7 · total 48.9

Side DET -6.5 (Toss-up) — Cleared · DET by 7 · closing-line value +0

Total Over 48.5 (Toss-up) — Cleared · 55 points · closing-line value +1

Bengals 27, Steelers 30: Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns, giving Pittsburgh a season-high 30 points after it scored 23 in its first two games combined. The Steelers hit Joe Burrow and recovered a fumble late to seal it.

THE CARD, GRADED · CIN @ PIT · final CIN 27, PIT 30

The line PIT +3.5 · total 42.5 (closed +3.5 · 42.5)

Our number PIT +3.1 · total 37.9

Side CIN -3.5 (Toss-up) — Missed · PIT by 3 · closing-line value +0

Total Under 42.5 (Lean) — Missed · 57 points · closing-line value +0

Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10: Kansas City was not at its sharpest but did enough to win comfortably, while Miami lost running back De'Von Achane to a knee injury after just three carries, with early indications not optimistic.

THE CARD, GRADED · KC @ MIA · final KC 24, MIA 10

The line MIA +10 · total 45.5 (closed +9.5 · 45.5)

Our number MIA +5.1 · total 47.3

Side KC -10 (Toss-up) — Cleared · KC by 14 · closing-line value -0.5

Total Over 45.5 (Toss-up) — Missed · 34 points · closing-line value +0

Texans 17, Colts 19: Indianapolis got its first win on a 53-yard field goal in the closing seconds, ending a five-game losing streak against Houston despite three turnovers and no takeaways. The Texans are 0-3 for the second straight year.

THE CARD, GRADED · HOU @ IND · final HOU 17, IND 19

The line IND +1.5 · total 42.5 (closed +1.5 · 42.5)

Our number IND -2 · total 51

Side HOU -1.5 (Toss-up) — Missed · IND by 2 · closing-line value +0

Total Over 42.5 (Strong) — Missed · 36 points · closing-line value +0

Panthers 18, Browns 21: Deshaun Watson and Cleveland won a second straight game, holding a Carolina offense that had scored 37 and 34 in its first two games to 18.

THE CARD, GRADED · CAR @ CLE · final CAR 18, CLE 21

The line CLE +1.5 · total 42.5 (closed +2.5 · 41.5)

Our number CLE +3.2 · total 50.5

Side CAR -1.5 (Lean) — Missed · CLE by 3 · closing-line value +1

Total Under 42.5 (Toss-up) — Cleared · 39 points · closing-line value +1

Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16: Minnesota improved to 3-0 and Tampa Bay fell to 0-3 for the first time since 2014, with Mayfield sacked six times before his thumb injury. Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson left early with an ankle injury.

THE CARD, GRADED · MIN @ TB · final MIN 23, TB 16

The line TB +1.5 · total 42.5 (closed +1.5 · 42.5)

Our number TB +3.6 · total 43.1

Side MIN -1.5 (Lean) — Cleared · MIN by 7 · closing-line value +0

Total Under 42.5 (Toss-up) — Cleared · 39 points · closing-line value +0

Cardinals 30, 49ers 36: San Francisco stayed perfect in a 66-point shootout, though receiver Mike Evans left in the second quarter with a rib strain and did not return after halftime.

THE CARD, GRADED · ARI @ SF · final ARI 30, SF 36

The line SF -7.5 · total 47.5 (closed -7.5 · 48.5)

Our number SF -10.2 · total 41.8

Side SF -7.5 (Lean) — Missed · SF by 6 · closing-line value +0

Total Over 47.5 (Toss-up) — Cleared · 66 points · closing-line value +1

Raiders 35, Saints 27: Las Vegas rallied for a surprise 3-0 start, but wide receiver Jack Bech suffered a broken forearm and is headed to injured reserve.

THE CARD, GRADED · LV @ NO · final LV 35, NO 27

The line NO -3.5 · total 43.5 (closed -4.5 · 43.5)

Our number NO -0.3 · total 44.9

Side LV +3.5 (Strong) — Cleared · LV by 8 · closing-line value -1

Total Under 43.5 (Toss-up) — Missed · 62 points · closing-line value +0

The Injury List Keeps Growing

Backup quarterbacks stole the day. Mariota beat the defending champions in Washington, and Winston kept the Giants afloat after Dart's season-ending knee injury. Tampa Bay may be next: Mayfield dislocated his right thumb on a fourth-and-13 interception with 1:54 left, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels took over for the final drive. Coach Todd Bowles said X-rays showed no fracture and an MRI was set for Monday, but Mayfield is likely to miss time, and Daniels would make his first start against the Packers.

The damage went well beyond quarterback. Achane's knee, Evans's rib, Jefferson's ankle, Bech's forearm, and Baltimore's two centers all made Sunday's list, and Los Angeles played Sunday night without Nacua. Three weeks in, the injury report keeps shaping how the season plays out.

Star of the Day: Marcus Mariota, Washington Commanders

19 completions | 31 attempts | 183 yards | 3 TD | 0 INT

Stepping in for the injured Daniels, Mariota threw three touchdowns without a turnover and iced the win with a 9-yard run on third-and-7. He beat the reigning champion's defense and ended Seattle's 12-game winning streak on a day Washington needed three takeaways to do it.

Dud of the Day: Drake Maye, New England Patriots

18-of-31 passing | 245 yards | 0 TD | 2 INT | lost fumble

Maye and the Patriots turned the ball over three times in a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville, and the offense managed only two field goals. It was another turnover-heavy day for a young quarterback who came in looking for a rebound.

How We Did: Checking the Preview Predictions

Sunday went 8-6 on sides and 7-7 on totals, and for the first time every game carries its card, graded: the line we printed, our number, the lean with its confidence tier, and whether it cleared. Three things worth saying out loud.

The Strong leans went 2-1. Raiders and the points and the Patriots-Jaguars under both cleared; the Texans-Colts over did not, in a game that needed a 53-yard field goal to reach 36. Three leans is not a track record, and the number behind the tiers is built on two weeks of games, so we will keep saying so until the ledger is long enough to mean something.

The Toss-ups went 11-8. Nine of the fourteen sides sat within a point and a half of our number, which is what September football looks like, and they split 5-4. Five of the six side misses came in games decided by three points or fewer, Baltimore by a half-point on a 56-yarder with one second left.

Where we leaned against the number, it went 4-5 on sides. The cards say which leans were reads on the matchup rather than the rating, and the two Seattle calls are the honest example: our number had Washington closer than the book did, we leaned the champions anyway, and Mariota settled it. When we lean against the number or the trends, the card says so, and the grade is the price of that.

Every lean was logged before kickoff with the line at the time. The running ledger, by tier and with the misses in the same font size, is on the Dashboards page.

THE RECORD · 14 games

Sides 8-6 · Strong leans 1-0

Totals 7-7 · Strong leans 1-1

Toss-ups 11-8 across both markets

Closing-line value +0.1 points per side lean

Every lean above was logged before kickoff with the line at the time. The season ledger, by tier and with the misses in the same font size, lives on the Dashboards page.

Season Predictions Record

Tracking every graded pick against the spread and total from the preview articles this season, updated through September 27:

Spread / Side: 23-24

Total (Over/Under): 26-21

The side calls sit at 49%, while the totals are at 55%. We'll keep this tally updated through the rest of the season.

Week 3 closes Monday night with the Eagles at the Bears at 8:15 PM ET. We'll have the preview, the line, and both calls before kickoff.

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