The 2026 season opens with something the league has done only once in the last decade: a Week 1 Super Bowl rematch. Seattle raises the banner from a 29-13 win over New England in Super Bowl LX and hosts the same Patriots on a Wednesday night, the NFL's first midweek opener since 2012, a night before the league's first regular-season game in Australia. Both teams went 14-3 last year and finished top three in scoring, so the season starts at the top. Patriots at Seahawks kicks at 8:20 ET on NBC and Peacock.

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | 8:20 PM ET | NBC

The Super Bowl was decided in the trenches, and the numbers were lopsided: Seattle pressured Maye on 52.8% of his dropbacks, hit 85.7% pressure when it blitzed, and held New England to -0.26 EPA per play on first and second down. The Patriots spent the offseason answering that with weapons rather than linemen, adding A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs to give Maye a real outside threat in his second year under Josh McDaniels.

Seattle is the team that changed more. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III left for Kansas City, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to run the Raiders, Zach Charbonnet opens on PUP, and first-round rookie Jadarian Price inherits the backfield with George Holani behind him. That matters because Sam Darnold's 2025 lived on the run-boot game: a 116.9 passer rating off play action against 61.6 on traditional dropbacks, with 14 interceptions and a league-high 11 fumbles in between. New coordinator Brian Fleury calls his first game with a rookie running the scheme's engine.

The constants are the two things that won Seattle the title: a defense that allowed 17.2 points per game, best in the league, with 47 sacks, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year (119 catches, 1,793 yards) now on a record $168 million extension. Christian Gonzalez on Smith-Njigba is the matchup of the night. New England's own defense was no slouch at 18.8 allowed (4th), and Christian Barmore returned to full practice Monday after missing Sunday.

Injuries tilt slightly toward Seattle. Patriots rookie back TreVeyon Henderson did not practice Sunday or Monday with an ankle, which would push Rhamondre Stevenson into a full workload, and center Ben Brown has already been ruled out. Seattle's list is longer but lighter: safety Ty Okada is out of practice with a hamstring, and Nick Emmanwori, Tory Horton, and Josh Jones were limited.

The line sits at Seattle -3.5, with the total at 44.5. Seattle went 15-5 against the spread last year, best in the league, but New England was 7-2 on the road and top ten in EPA per play on both sides of the ball, and the Super Bowl offense that dominated has a new coordinator and a new running back on a short-prep Wednesday. Lean New England +3.5, and lean the under.

New England wins if the line holds up against the blitz well enough for Maye to find Brown and Doubs on early downs, and the run defense turns Darnold into a dropback passer.

Seattle wins if Price gives Fleury enough of a run game to keep play action alive, and the pass rush picks up where February left off.

Watch the first two Seattle drives for how much Fleury leans on Price and the boot game, because Darnold's whole profile splits on it. On the other side, count the sacks: if Maye is standing up through the first quarter, the Patriots' offseason worked. Thursday night the season goes to Melbourne for 49ers and Rams, and we will be back with that preview in the morning.