NFL Preview | September 28, 2026
A week ago this looked like one of the better games on the Week 3 board. Then Caleb Williams pulled up on a run late in the fourth quarter against Minnesota, the line moved several points in a hurry, and Monday night became a different kind of game. The Eagles are 2-0 without having convinced anybody, the Bears are 1-1 with a quarterback question, and both teams have something to prove. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on ESPN/ABC from Soldier Field.
Philadelphia Is Still Looking for Its Offense. Chicago Is Looking for a Quarterback.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
KEY STAT
3
Points the Bears scored against Minnesota last Sunday, one week after putting up 59 in Charlotte. Williams left that game with a hamstring injury and won't play Monday.
The Williams news is the headline. ESPN reports a Grade 2 hamstring strain, the kind that usually costs three to four weeks, and the Bears ruled him out for Monday. Chicago will start Case Keenum, the 38-year-old veteran who hasn't appeared in a regular-season game since 2023, with Tyson Bagent (cleared from the concussion protocol) backing him up. There's a little history in the mix too: Keenum's Vikings lost the 2017 NFC Championship Game to these same Eagles.
Chicago's best path is probably the one it already knows. In Week 1, D'Andre Swift ran for 124 yards in a 59-37 win at Carolina, and Ben Johnson has every reason to lean on that run game again. The defense gave up 37 in that opener but held Minnesota to nine last week, so which version shows up matters a lot.
Philadelphia's 2-0 has been a grind. The Eagles beat Washington by two and needed a late touchdown to get past Tennessee after falling behind in the final two minutes. Saquon Barkley managed four carries for nine yards before a stinger cut his Week 2 short, though he and DeVonta Smith are both cleared for Monday. The bigger holes are elsewhere: tight end Dallas Goedert (sprained MCL), receiver Hollywood Brown and tackle Fred Johnson are all out, and Markel Bell steps in as the swing tackle. The Eagles brought Zach Ertz back this week to help fill the tight end spot, and pass rusher Jonathan Greenard (pectoral) is questionable and could make his season debut.
A few numbers worth having, courtesy of VSiN: NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points are 22-8 against the spread in their next game since 2015, home underdogs on Monday night are 21-17-1 against the spread since September 2021, and the last 37 of those games have gone under the total 24 times.
Philadelphia wins if Jalen Hurts finds a rhythm with a rebuilt group of pass catchers and Vic Fangio's defense makes a backup quarterback earn every yard.
Chicago wins if the run game controls the clock, the defense from last week shows up again, and Keenum avoids the big mistake.
THE CARD · PHI @ CHI
The line CHI +3.5 · total 41.5 (opened CHI -1.5 and 46.5; spread moved 5 toward the road side on the Williams news, through the key number 3, total down 5)
Our number CHI +1.3 · total 44.1, adjusted -6 for Williams — 2.2 pts from the book on the side, 2.6 on the total
Last 2 PHI 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U · CHI 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Rest & availability PHI normal week, Goedert and Brown out · CHI normal week, Williams out, Keenum starting
The public 62% of tickets on PHI · 53% on the over
Lean CHI +3.5 (Lean) · Under 41.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the number and the news. Before the injury our number had Chicago as a 4.7-point home favorite; take six off for a backup quarterback and it still sits closer than the book, so the points are a Lean. The under is a read against our number, which has this game a few points higher, on the strength of the trends above and a first start for Keenum. Through Week 6 the number is built on a handful of games and is deliberately shrunk toward average; the news and the market carry more weight than usual.
What to Watch For Monday Night.
Watch how Keenum handles a defense that has had a full week to study him, how often the Bears run on early downs, and how the Eagles' line holds up with a swing tackle in the lineup. That closes out Week 3. The full 16-game tally and the season-to-date record come with Tuesday's recap, and every card gets graded there.