NFL Preview | September 27, 2026
Week 3's Sunday slate has 14 games, and three carry more than the usual weight: the NFL's first regular season game in Brazil, two once-hyped young quarterbacks both trying to find themselves again, and what a lot of folks around the league are calling the best, most evenly matched game of the week. Those three get the full write-up below; the rest get a quick storyline and a lean.
History in Rio Comes With the Highest Total of the Week
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
KEY STAT
53.5
The total for Sunday's game at Maracanã Stadium, the highest on this week's board. It's also the NFL's first-ever regular season game in Rio de Janeiro.
Both offenses arrive rolling. Dak Prescott threw four touchdowns against Washington last week and became Dallas's franchise leader in career passing scores in the process, with CeeDee Lamb putting up 153 yards and two scores of his own in a 37-20 win that finally got the Cowboys' season moving after an ugly opener. Baltimore's had the wilder ride: a lopsided lead against New Orleans in Week 2 slipped away in the second half, the second time the Saints have pulled off a comeback like that this season, so the Ravens arrive at 1-1 with a defense that still needs to prove it can close out a game it's already won.
The venue adds its own wrinkle. Maracanã's field hasn't hosted an NFL game before, and there's real uncertainty about how the turf holds up, which matters plenty for two rosters already managing lower-body injuries. Neither team is treating that as an excuse, but it's worth watching in the fourth quarter.
Baltimore wins if the defense that let a big lead slip against the Saints shows up for four full quarters this time, and the passing game exploits a Dallas secondary that's still finding its footing.
Dallas wins if Prescott and Lamb pick up where they left off and the defense that got run over early in the season looks like a finished product against a real offense.
THE CARD · BAL @ DAL
The line DAL +3.5 · total 53.5 (spread moved +1 toward the road side, through the key number 3, total up 1 since open)
Our number DAL -1.1 · total 49.7 — 4.6 pts from the book on the side, 3.8 on the total
Last 2 BAL 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U · DAL 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Rest & availability BAL normal week · DAL normal week
The public 53% of tickets on BAL · 68% on the over
Lean BAL -3.5 (Toss-up) · Over 53.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the news. Our number leaned the other way on both the side and the total; this is a read on the matchup, not the rating. Through Week 6 the number is built on a handful of games and is deliberately shrunk toward average; the news and the market carry more weight than usual.
Two Quarterbacks Looking for the Season They're Supposed to Be Having
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
KEY STAT
1
Jacksonville's total giveaways this season, a single Trevor Lawrence interception. Drake Maye has thrown three picks and lost a fumble for New England in the first two games alone.
Both of these quarterbacks were supposed to have arrived by now. Drake Maye looked like a budding star for stretches of last season, and instead he's turned the ball over five times in two games, including three interceptions in the opener. New England is 1-1 anyway, mostly because Christian Gonzalez is playing lockdown corner and Rhamondre Stevenson bounced back from a benching to help close out a 17-point win over Pittsburgh last week.
Trevor Lawrence has been just as inconsistent on the other side. He was nearly unstoppable in Week 1 (34 points, 8.3 yards per attempt) before Denver's pass rush hit him seven times and sacked him twice in a sloppy 20-13 loss last week, exposing an offensive line that new coordinator Liam Coen hasn't fully fixed yet. New England's own pass rush isn't built to punish that the same way Denver's was, which is the one thing keeping Jacksonville favored at home.
New England wins if Maye protects the football for the first time this season and Gonzalez's coverage on the outside forces Lawrence into checkdowns.
Jacksonville wins if the offensive line gives Lawrence the time it didn't against Denver, and the Jaguars turn a shaky Patriots offense into a low-event, field-position game they're built to win.
THE CARD · NE @ JAX
The line JAX -3 · total 45.5 (spread moved -1.5 toward the home side, through the key number 3)
Our number JAX -0.2 · total 35.2 — 2.8 pts from the book on the side, 10.3 on the total
Last 2 NE 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U · JAX 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Rest & availability NE normal week · JAX normal week
The public 69% of tickets on JAX · 50% on the over
Lean JAX -3 (Toss-up) · Under 45.5 (Strong)
Driven by the news. Our number leaned the other side; the lean is a read on the matchup, and the total follows the number.
The Most Balanced Game of the Week
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
KEY STAT
1-1
Both teams' record heading into Sunday night, and about the only thing that's simple about this matchup. Multiple outlets are calling it the best, most evenly played game on the entire Week 3 board.
Denver needed a response after getting run over by Kansas City in Week 1, and it got one: Bo Nix threw for 288 yards as the Broncos erased a 10-point deficit to beat Jacksonville 20-13, giving Sean Payton's offense a genuine explosive gear it hadn't shown yet this year. The Rams, meanwhile, are hard to pin down. They got steamrolled by San Francisco in Melbourne, then beat a Giants team that lost Jaxson Dart for most of the game, which is a real win but not exactly a clean data point. Aaron Donald is back in the fold after his long-awaited return, giving Los Angeles a defensive front that finally looks like what the offseason promised.
Both lines are tight for a reason: neither team has fully shown its hand yet, and Sunday night is as good a chance as any to find out which version is real.
Los Angeles wins if Donald's presence up front changes the math on early downs and Matthew Stafford keeps building on a passing attack that finally looked right on Monday night.
Denver wins if Nix carries over the confidence from the Jacksonville comeback and the home crowd at altitude does what it usually does to a traveling offense.
THE CARD · LAR @ DEN
The line DEN +2.5 · total 43.5 (total down 2 since open)
Our number DEN +1 · total 38.5 — 1.5 pts from the book on the side, 5 on the total
Last 2 LAR 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U · DEN 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Rest & availability LAR normal week · DEN normal week
The public tickets split evenly on the side · 51% on the under
Lean DEN +2.5 (Lean) · Under 43.5 (Lean)
Driven by the number. A real gap, not a big one.
The Rest of the Slate
Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns | 1:00 PM ET — Cleveland's offense has been one of the league's least productive early on, and Carolina gets a favorable road number because of it. Lean: CAR -1.5, and lean the under 42.5.
THE CARD · CAR @ CLE
The line CLE +1.5 · total 42.5 (total up 3 since open)
Our number CLE +3.2 · total 50.5 — 1.7 pts from the book on the side, 8 on the total
Last 2 CAR 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U · CLE 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Rest & availability CAR normal week · CLE normal week
The public 65% of tickets on CAR · 59% on the over
Lean CAR -1.5 (Lean) · Under 42.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the number. The side follows our number; the total is a read against it.
Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants | 1:00 PM ET — The lowest total on the board, with New York banged up at quarterback after Jaxson Dart's knee injury. Lean: NYG -2.5, and lean the under 37.5.
THE CARD · TEN @ NYG
The line NYG -2.5 · total 37.5 (spread moved +0.5 toward the road side, through the key number 3, total down 8 since open)
Our number NYG -2.3 · total 41.3 — 0.2 pts from the book on the side, 3.8 on the total
Last 2 TEN 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U · NYG 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Rest & availability TEN normal week · NYG normal week
The public 57% of tickets on NYG · 68% on the under
Lean NYG -2.5 (Toss-up) · Under 37.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the news. Our number leaned the other way on both the side and the total; this is a read on the matchup, not the rating.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills | 1:00 PM ET — Buffalo's rolling at home while the Chargers are in the middle of an ugly slide. Lean: BUF -7, and lean the over 49.5.
THE CARD · LAC @ BUF
The line BUF -7 · total 49.5 (spread moved -4.5 toward the home side, through the key number 3, total up 1 since open)
Our number BUF -7.7 · total 51.4 — 0.7 pts from the book on the side, 1.9 on the total
Last 2 LAC 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U · BUF 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Rest & availability LAC normal week · BUF extra rest
The public 60% of tickets on BUF · 70% on the over
Lean BUF -7 (Toss-up) · Over 49.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the number. We are close to the book; the trends above are the tiebreaker, and reasonable people land on either side.
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | 1:00 PM ET — Detroit's offense should have little trouble against a Jets team still finding its identity. Lean: DET -6.5, and lean the over 48.5.
THE CARD · NYJ @ DET
The line DET -6.5 · total 48.5 (spread moved +3 toward the road side, through the key number 7, total up 3 since open)
Our number DET -0.7 · total 48.9 — 5.8 pts from the book on the side, 0.4 on the total
Last 2 NYJ 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U · DET 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Rest & availability NYJ normal week · DET extra rest
The public 63% of tickets on DET · 62% on the over
Lean DET -6.5 (Toss-up) · Over 48.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the news. Our number leaned the other side; the lean is a read on the matchup, and the total follows the number.
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders | 1:00 PM ET — Washington turns to Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels sidelined by a dislocated elbow, against a defending champion Seattle team that's won 12 straight dating back to last season. Lean: SEA -7.5, and lean the under 40.5.
THE CARD · SEA @ WAS
The line WAS +7.5 · total 40.5 (spread moved +4 toward the road side, through the key number 7, total down 6 since open)
Our number WAS +6.3 · total 42.7 — 1.2 pts from the book on the side, 2.2 on the total
Last 2 SEA 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U · WAS 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Rest & availability SEA normal week · WAS normal week
The public 65% of tickets on SEA · 52% on the over
Lean SEA -7.5 (Toss-up) · Under 40.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the news. Our number leaned the other way on both the side and the total; this is a read on the matchup, not the rating.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1:00 PM ET — Cincinnati's the more complete team right now, even on the road. Lean: CIN -3.5, and lean the under 42.5.
THE CARD · CIN @ PIT
The line PIT +3.5 · total 42.5 (spread moved +2 toward the road side, through the key number 3, total down 5 since open)
Our number PIT +3.1 · total 37.9 — 0.4 pts from the book on the side, 4.6 on the total
Last 2 CIN 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U · PIT 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Rest & availability CIN normal week · PIT normal week
The public 62% of tickets on CIN · 62% on the under
Lean CIN -3.5 (Toss-up) · Under 42.5 (Lean)
Driven by the news. Our number leaned the other side; the lean is a read on the matchup, and the total follows the number.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins | 1:00 PM ET — Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III have the Chiefs playing their most dynamic football in years, and Miami's been outclassed in both losses so far, scoring just 13 points each time. Lean: KC -10, and lean the over 45.5.
THE CARD · KC @ MIA
The line MIA +10 · total 45.5 (spread moved +3 toward the road side, through the key number 7, total up 1 since open)
Our number MIA +5.1 · total 47.3 — 4.9 pts from the book on the side, 1.8 on the total
Last 2 KC 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U · MIA 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Rest & availability KC normal week · MIA normal week
The public 65% of tickets on KC · 52% on the under
Lean KC -10 (Toss-up) · Over 45.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the news. Our number leaned the other side; the lean is a read on the matchup, and the total follows the number.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | 1:00 PM ET — Indianapolis is just the third team in NFL history to allow 500-plus yards of total offense in each of its first two games, which says everything about this number. Lean: HOU -1.5, and lean the over 42.5.
THE CARD · HOU @ IND
The line IND +1.5 · total 42.5 (total down 3 since open)
Our number IND -2 · total 51 — 3.5 pts from the book on the side, 8.5 on the total
Last 2 HOU 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U · IND 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Rest & availability HOU normal week · IND normal week
The public 55% of tickets on HOU · 60% on the over
Lean HOU -1.5 (Toss-up) · Over 42.5 (Strong)
Driven by the news. Our number leaned the other side; the lean is a read on the matchup, and the total follows the number.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4:05 PM ET — A tight road number in a game that looks like it'll be decided on the margins. Lean: MIN -1.5, and lean the under 42.5.
THE CARD · MIN @ TB
The line TB +1.5 · total 42.5 (spread moved +3 toward the road side, total down 2 since open)
Our number TB +3.6 · total 43.1 — 2.1 pts from the book on the side, 0.6 on the total
Last 2 MIN 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U · TB 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Rest & availability MIN normal week · TB normal week
The public 55% of tickets on TB · 52% on the over
Lean MIN -1.5 (Lean) · Under 42.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the number. The side follows our number; the total is a read against it.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers | 4:05 PM ET — Brock Purdy and the 49ers are rolling after a 35-13 win over Miami, and Arizona's defense hasn't shown it can slow anyone down yet. Lean: SF -7.5, and lean the over 47.5.
THE CARD · ARI @ SF
The line SF -7.5 · total 47.5 (spread moved +4 toward the road side, total up 1 since open)
Our number SF -10.2 · total 41.8 — 2.7 pts from the book on the side, 5.7 on the total
Last 2 ARI 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U · SF 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Rest & availability ARI normal week · SF normal week
The public 63% of tickets on SF · 53% on the over
Lean SF -7.5 (Lean) · Over 47.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the number. The side follows our number; the total is a read against it.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints | 4:25 PM ET — The Raiders are one of eight teams still unbeaten entering Week 3, and they're getting points on the road against a Saints team that's had to come from behind twice already this year. Lean: LV +3.5, and lean the under 43.5.
THE CARD · LV @ NO
The line NO -3.5 · total 43.5 (spread moved -0.5 toward the home side, through the key number 3, total up 1 since open)
Our number NO -0.3 · total 44.9 — 3.2 pts from the book on the side, 1.4 on the total
Last 2 LV 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U · NO 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Rest & availability LV normal week · NO normal week
The public 56% of tickets on NO · 68% on the over
Lean LV +3.5 (Strong) · Under 43.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the number. The side follows our number; the total is a read against it.
What to Watch For Sunday.
That's 14 leans on the side and 14 on the total for Week 3's Sunday slate, each with its card: the line, our number, the trends, rest, where the public sits, and the lean with how confident it deserves to be. Every one gets graded in the recap and counted in the record. We'll be back for Rams-Broncos to close out the night.
