NFL Preview | September 27, 2026
Week 3's Sunday slate has 14 games, and three carry more than the usual weight: the NFL's first regular season game in Brazil, two once-hyped young quarterbacks both trying to find themselves again, and what a lot of folks around the league are calling the best, most evenly matched game of the week. Those three get the full write-up below; the rest get a quick storyline and a pick.
History in Rio Comes With the Highest Total of the Week
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
KEY STAT
53.5
The total for Sunday's game at Maracanã Stadium, the highest on this week's board. It's also the NFL's first-ever regular season game in Rio de Janeiro.
Both offenses arrive rolling. Dak Prescott threw four touchdowns against Washington last week and became Dallas's franchise leader in career passing scores in the process, with CeeDee Lamb putting up 153 yards and two scores of his own in a 37-20 win that finally got the Cowboys' season moving after an ugly opener. Baltimore's had the wilder ride: a lopsided lead against New Orleans in Week 2 slipped away in the second half, the second time the Saints have pulled off a comeback like that this season, so the Ravens arrive at 1-1 with a defense that still needs to prove it can close out a game it's already won.
The venue adds its own wrinkle. Maracanã's field hasn't hosted an NFL game before, and there's real uncertainty about how the turf holds up, which matters plenty for two rosters already managing lower-body injuries. Neither team is treating that as an excuse, but it's worth watching in the fourth quarter.
Baltimore wins if the defense that let a big lead slip against the Saints shows up for four full quarters this time, and the passing game exploits a Dallas secondary that's still finding its footing.
Dallas wins if Prescott and Lamb pick up where they left off and the defense that got run over early in the season looks like a finished product against a real offense.
PICK
BAL -3.5
O/U 53.5
Over ↑
Take Baltimore's better overall roster on the road, and take the over. Two quarterbacks throwing this well rarely stay under 54 for long, and a shaky field is more likely to produce broken coverages than a defensive slog.
Two Quarterbacks Looking for the Season They're Supposed to Be Having
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
KEY STAT
1
Jacksonville's total giveaways this season, a single Trevor Lawrence interception. Drake Maye has thrown three picks and lost a fumble for New England in the first two games alone.
Both of these quarterbacks were supposed to have arrived by now. Drake Maye looked like a budding star for stretches of last season, and instead he's turned the ball over five times in two games, including three interceptions in the opener. New England is 1-1 anyway, mostly because Christian Gonzalez is playing lockdown corner and Rhamondre Stevenson bounced back from a benching to help close out a 17-point win over Pittsburgh last week.
Trevor Lawrence has been just as inconsistent on the other side. He was nearly unstoppable in Week 1 (34 points, 8.3 yards per attempt) before Denver's pass rush hit him seven times and sacked him twice in a sloppy 20-13 loss last week, exposing an offensive line that new coordinator Liam Coen hasn't fully fixed yet. New England's own pass rush isn't built to punish that the same way Denver's was, which is the one thing keeping Jacksonville favored at home.
New England wins if Maye protects the football for the first time this season and Gonzalez's coverage on the outside forces Lawrence into checkdowns.
Jacksonville wins if the offensive line gives Lawrence the time it didn't against Denver, and the Jaguars turn a shaky Patriots offense into a low-event, field-position game they're built to win.
PICK
JAX -3
O/U 45.5
Under ↓
Take Jacksonville at home behind the better quarterback, even an inconsistent version of him. And take the under: a turnover-prone offense and a shaky O-line on the other side both point toward stalled drives more than a shootout.
The Most Balanced Game of the Week
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
KEY STAT
1-1
Both teams' record heading into Sunday night, and about the only thing that's simple about this matchup. Multiple outlets are calling it the best, most evenly played game on the entire Week 3 board.
Denver needed a response after getting run over by Kansas City in Week 1, and it got one: Bo Nix threw for 288 yards as the Broncos erased a 10-point deficit to beat Jacksonville 20-13, giving Sean Payton's offense a genuine explosive gear it hadn't shown yet this year. The Rams, meanwhile, are hard to pin down. They got steamrolled by San Francisco in Melbourne, then beat a Giants team that lost Jaxson Dart for most of the game, which is a real win but not exactly a clean data point. Aaron Donald is back in the fold after his long-awaited return, giving Los Angeles a defensive front that finally looks like what the offseason promised.
Both lines are tight for a reason: neither team has fully shown its hand yet, and Sunday night is as good a chance as any to find out which version is real.
Los Angeles wins if Donald's presence up front changes the math on early downs and Matthew Stafford keeps building on a passing attack that finally looked right on Monday night.
Denver wins if Nix carries over the confidence from the Jacksonville comeback and the home crowd at altitude does what it usually does to a traveling offense.
PICK
DEN +2.5
O/U 43.5
Under ↓
Take the home team and the points off real momentum from last week, and take the under. This has the shape of a tight, balanced game that comes down to a field goal, not a shootout.
The Rest of the Slate
Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns | 1:00 PM ET — Cleveland's offense has been one of the league's least productive early on, and Carolina gets a favorable road number because of it. Pick: CAR -1.5, Under 42.5.
Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants | 1:00 PM ET — The lowest total on the board, with New York banged up at quarterback after Jaxson Dart's knee injury. Pick: NYG -2.5, Under 37.5.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills | 1:00 PM ET — Buffalo's rolling at home while the Chargers are in the middle of an ugly slide. Pick: BUF -7, Over 49.5.
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions | 1:00 PM ET — Detroit's offense should have little trouble against a Jets team still finding its identity. Pick: DET -6.5, Over 48.5.
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders | 1:00 PM ET — Washington turns to Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels sidelined by a dislocated elbow, against a defending champion Seattle team that's won 12 straight dating back to last season. Pick: SEA -7.5, Under 40.5.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1:00 PM ET — Cincinnati's the more complete team right now, even on the road. Pick: CIN -3.5, Under 42.5.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins | 1:00 PM ET — Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III have the Chiefs playing their most dynamic football in years, and Miami's been outclassed in both losses so far, scoring just 13 points each time. Pick: KC -10, Over 45.5.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | 1:00 PM ET — Indianapolis is just the third team in NFL history to allow 500-plus yards of total offense in each of its first two games, which says everything about this number. Pick: HOU -1.5, Over 42.5.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4:05 PM ET — A tight road number in a game that looks like it'll be decided on the margins. Pick: MIN -1.5, Under 42.5.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers | 4:05 PM ET — Brock Purdy and the 49ers are rolling after a 35-13 win over Miami, and Arizona's defense hasn't shown it can slow anyone down yet. Pick: SF -7.5, Over 47.5.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints | 4:25 PM ET — The Raiders are the only 2-0 team on the entire Sunday slate, and they're getting points on the road against a Saints team that's had to come from behind twice already this year. Pick: LV +3.5, Under 43.5.
What to Watch For Sunday.
That's 14 picks against the spread and 14 on the total for Week 3's Sunday slate. We'll check every one against the season-to-date record, and we'll be back for Rams-Broncos to close out the night.