NFL Preview | September 20, 2026
Week 2's Sunday slate has 14 games and three different flavors of a team trying to fix what Week 1 broke: a Colts defense that just got hung with 41 points walks into a Chiefs offense that got its franchise quarterback back in a big way, a Dolphins team down to its third-string era at quarterback draws the widest line of the week, and two 0-1 NFC East also-rans meet with a shared deadline — lose again, and it's an 0-2 hole in a division that isn't waiting around. Those three get the full treatment below; the rest get a storyline and a pick apiece.
A Reeling Defense Meets a Hot Mahomes
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
KEY STAT
41
Points the Colts allowed in their Week 1 blowout loss to Baltimore. Now they draw a Chiefs offense that just beat Denver by 21 in Patrick Mahomes' first game back from a torn ACL and LCL.
Mahomes didn't look like a quarterback nine months removed from major knee surgery in Kansas City's 31-10 win over Denver — the two-time MVP was efficient and in complete control from the opener. Indianapolis, meanwhile, has real problems to answer for after Baltimore hung 28 unanswered points on them in the first half alone. Daniel Jones, back himself from an Achilles tear, threw for just 166 yards and was picked off in his return, though Jonathan Taylor (98 yards, 2 touchdowns) looked every bit like one of the league's best backs even in a loss.
The math here is simple: Kansas City's offense is trending up at exactly the moment Indianapolis's defense is trending down, on the road, at Arrowhead. Taylor gives the Colts a puncher's chance regardless of the score, but he can't be the only answer against a defense that will make Jones win from the pocket.
Indianapolis wins if Taylor stays the workhorse he was in Week 1 and Jones avoids the mistakes that put his team in an early hole against Baltimore.
Kansas City wins if Mahomes builds on his clean Week 1 return and the same defense that held Denver to 10 makes Taylor a one-man show.
PICK
KC -6
O/U 46.5
Over ↑
Take the healthier, hotter team at home. And take the over — Taylor is going to get his regardless of the final score, and Kansas City's offense just proved it doesn't need a slow start to get rolling.
The Widest Line of the Week
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
KEY STAT
13.5
The spread — the widest on this week's board. Miami's new starting quarterback, Malik Willis, gets a road trip against a 49ers defense fresh off a win in Australia.
Miami moved on from its old quarterback situation entirely this offseason, handing the job to Malik Willis, who signed a three-year deal after two seasons as a backup in Green Bay. His debut was a mixed bag in a 27-13 loss to Las Vegas — 220 passing yards and a rushing touchdown, but also an interception and several sacks absorbed behind a line that struggled to protect him. San Francisco, fresh off knocking off the Rams in Melbourne to open the year, brings Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle back at full health after a maintenance week, plus a pass rush led by Nick Bosa that Willis's line hasn't faced anything like yet.
A double-digit road number for a team breaking in a new starter against a healthy, well-rested contender is about as clean a mismatch as Week 2 offers. The question isn't really who wins — it's whether Miami's offense can find enough rhythm to keep the final margin inside two scores.
Miami wins if Willis protects the ball better than he did in Week 1 and the run game led by De'Von Achane keeps the offense from becoming one-dimensional.
San Francisco wins if Bosa and the front seven make Willis uncomfortable early, and McCaffrey and Kittle turn a full injury report of "no game designation" into a full workload.
PICK
SF -13.5
O/U 44.5
Under ↓
A rested, healthy roster against a new starting quarterback and a shaky offensive line is a lay-the-points spot. Take the under, too — this has the shape of a game San Francisco controls with the run and the clock rather than turns into a track meet.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
KEY STAT
6-of-16
Jayden Daniels' first-half completion line in Washington's Week 1 loss to Philadelphia, before he rallied for two fourth-quarter touchdown drives that fell just short. The Commanders need the fast start this time.
Both of these teams entered the year with real expectations and left Week 1 at the bottom of the NFC East. Washington actually played the better game of the two — Daniels was hemmed in for a half by Philadelphia's defense before finding a rhythm late in a 24-22 loss — while Dallas was outclassed for most of a 28-20 defeat at the Giants that Cowboys writers described as more one-sided than the score suggested. Neither team's coaching staff is getting the benefit of the doubt this week.
This is a get-right spot for both, which usually means the team that starts faster wins going away. Washington's issue is generating offense early; Dallas's issue, per its own beat writers, is proving last year's rebuild moves were more than draft-capital math. Whichever weakness shows up first probably decides this one.
Washington wins if Daniels finds the version of himself that showed up in the fourth quarter last week from the opening drive instead of the third.
Dallas wins if the defense that got run over in New York looks like a finished product at home instead of a work in progress.
PICK
DAL -3.5
O/U 50.5
Over ↑
Lean the home team to clean up its issues before Washington cleans up its own. The highest total of the week says the market expects both offenses to eventually find their footing — take the over on that being right.
The Rest of the Slate
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears | 1:00 PM ET — Both teams are 1-0, with Minnesota coming off a 39-22 rout of Green Bay. A Bears home crowd against a division rival that just proved its offense is for real. Pick: CHI -4.5, Under 47.5.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans | 1:00 PM ET — Houston's defense led the league in sacks a year ago, and a home number this modest suggests the market still isn't fully sold on either offense. Pick: HOU -2.5, Under 45.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots | 1:00 PM ET — Pittsburgh opened 1-0 with a win over Atlanta; New England is 0-1 but still favored at home, which says plenty about how the market views this Patriots roster beyond one result. Pick: NE -5.5, Under 41.5.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans | 1:00 PM ET — The defending Week 1 survivors travel as heavy favorites after escaping Washington by two. Vic Fangio's defense against a rebuilding Titans offense is a tough ask for the home team. Pick: PHI -7, Under 39.5.
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1:00 PM ET — Tampa Bay is a healthy home favorite against a Cleveland offense still finding itself post-Garrett-trade. Pick: TB -7.5, Under 41.5.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons | 1:00 PM ET — Atlanta's quarterback situation is a mess — Tua Tagovailoa banged up, Michael Penix Jr. not fully cleared, Cooper Rush already having struggled once — and Carolina is somehow favored on the road because of it. Pick: CAR -2.5, Under 43.5.
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens | 1:00 PM ET — The Ravens scored 41 last week and get a Saints defense that just gave up 31 in an overtime shootout. Pick: BAL -8.5, Over 45.5.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets | 1:00 PM ET — Green Bay is favored on the road against a Jets team still finding its offensive identity. Pick: GB -3.5, Under 44.5.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers | 4:05 PM ET — The Raiders are 1-0 after beating Miami; the Chargers are 0-1 after a surprising loss to Arizona and get a bounce-back number at home. Pick: LAC -7, Under 43.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos | 4:05 PM ET — Denver was thoroughly outplayed by Kansas City in Week 1, and Jacksonville's offense looked sharp behind four Trevor Lawrence touchdown passes in its opener. Pick: DEN -3, Over 45.5.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals | 4:25 PM ET — The defending champions are the more complete team, even on the road against a Cardinals squad that just knocked off the Chargers. Pick: SEA -3.5, Under 40.5.
What to Watch For Sunday.
That's 14 picks against the spread and 14 on the total for Week 2's Sunday slate. We'll check every one of them against the season-to-date record, and we'll be back for the Giants-Rams Monday nighter to close out the week.