NFL Preview | September 14, 2026
Week 1 closes the way it always seems to when these two are involved: Broncos-Chiefs, Monday night, division supremacy on the line. Except this year both franchise quarterbacks are coming back from injuries that ended their 2025 seasons, and the team that used to own this rivalry is the one trying to prove last year wasn't a fluke. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on ESPN/ABC from Arrowhead Stadium.
Two Comeback Quarterbacks, One Broken Streak
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
KEY STAT
9
Consecutive AFC West titles the Chiefs won before Denver snapped the streak last season. The Broncos defend the division for the first time in a decade, on the road, against the team they dethroned.
Denver's 2025 ended one win short of the franchise's first Super Bowl trip since 2015. The Broncos went 14-3, claimed the No. 1 seed, and beat the Bills 33-30 in overtime in the divisional round — but Bo Nix fractured his ankle on the second-to-last play of that game, forcing veteran backup Jarrett Stidham into the AFC Championship Game. Denver lost a snowy, ugly 10-7 defeat to the Patriots at home. Nix is healthy now and gets his first real shot at finishing what last year's team started, behind a defense that's led the NFL in sacks for two straight seasons and ranked second in total defense a year ago.
Patrick Mahomes's absence was even more costly. He tore his ACL and LCL on December 14 against the Chargers, ending a season that saw Kansas City miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014 and finish 6-11, third in the division behind Denver and the Chargers. He's back and expected to start, but the protection in front of him is a real question: left tackle Josh Simmons is out with a back injury, meaning undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson gets his first NFL start protecting a quarterback nine months removed from major knee surgery — against the league's best pass rush over the last two years. Kansas City also added Kenneth Walker III, last year's Super Bowl MVP, to the backfield as a free agent, giving Mahomes a change-of-pace option if the passing game needs to lean on the ground.
Denver wins if the pass rush gets to Mahomes early behind a patchwork offensive line, and Nix picks up where his near-Super Bowl season left off.
Kansas City wins if Benson holds up well enough in his first start to keep Mahomes upright, and the two-time MVP looks like himself in his first game action in nine months.
PICK
DEN +2.5
O/U 43.5
Under ↓
An undrafted rookie left tackle protecting a surgically repaired knee against the NFL's top pass rush is a real liability, not a footnote. Take the points with the more battle-tested roster, and take the under on a game two shaky offensive lines could turn into a grind.
What to Watch For Monday Night.
Watch the Chiefs' first few third-down protections to see how Benson holds up, and watch whether Denver's defense treats Mahomes like a fully healthy quarterback or a target. That closes out Week 1 — final tally on all 16 games, and the season's full spread and over/under record, coming with Thursday's recap.