Week 1 wraps up its Sunday slate with 13 games, and three of them carry more than the usual season-opening weight. A head coach fired in January debuts with his new team the same week his replacement debuts with his old one. A franchise wide receiver's absence gets its first live test. And a coordinator gets an immediate rematch with the exact offense that torched his defense last season. Those three get the full treatment below; the rest get a storyline and a pick apiece.

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

Baltimore fired John Harbaugh in January after 18 seasons, the winningest coach in franchise history, and replaced him with Jesse Minter, a defensive coordinator with no head coaching experience anywhere above Michigan's interim chair. Minter's own defensive résumé includes last year's Chargers unit getting shredded by this same Colts offense — five touchdowns, a 38-24 loss — and now he's opening his tenure by walking back into it, just from the visitor's sideline this time.

The Colts have their own continuity story. Daniel Jones returns at quarterback after a torn Achilles ended his 2025 early, handing the ball back to a backfield that still runs through Jonathan Taylor, one of the league's best. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle hasn't shown much of Baltimore's playbook in the preseason, and Lamar Jackson and the starters barely played, so this is as close to a blind date as a Week 1 game gets for both sides.

Baltimore wins if Lamar Jackson looks like himself immediately and Minter's defense — his actual specialty — cleans up what his old unit couldn't solve against Taylor and this scheme.

Indianapolis wins if Taylor and Jones pick up where the Colts' offense left off against Minter last year, and the new-era Ravens look every bit as unfamiliar with each other as an offseason regime change suggests.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | 4:25 PM ET | FOX

The Eagles are breaking in a new offensive coordinator, Sean Mannion, a new wide-zone rushing scheme, and a receiver room without A.J. Brown, who left for New England over the offseason. DeVonta Smith is the new WR1, with Dontayvion Wicks and rookie Makai Lemon — both banged up for much of camp — rounding out the starters. The one constant is Saquon Barkley and an offensive line that's healthier than it's been in years, which is exactly what a new scheme wants behind it in Week 1.

Washington's defense is the more interesting question mark. New coordinator Daronte Jones installed six new starters and a faster, more athletic front, headlined by free-agent addition Odafe Oweh. But Jayden Daniels is the real story: healthy again after a seven-game, elbow-and-knee-wrecked 2025 that saw Washington go 2-5 in his starts, he's the swing factor for how much better this team actually is. Vic Fangio's Eagles defense — largely unchanged from a year ago — is the toughest possible opener for finding out.

Washington wins if Daniels looks like his 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year self and the new-look Commanders defense forces a few possessions out of an Eagles offense still learning its own playbook.

Philadelphia wins if Barkley and the ground game carry the load while Mannion's passing attack finds its footing, and Fangio's defense does what it's done to Washington for most of the Dan Quinn era.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | 8:20 PM ET | NBC

Start with the coincidence: John Harbaugh, fired by the Ravens in January after 18 seasons, makes his regular-season debut as Giants head coach in the same week Baltimore debuts Jesse Minter, his replacement. Harbaugh brought a wave of familiar names with him — linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, tight end Isaiah Likely, fullback Patrick Ricard — and a stated goal of making the Giants a physical, run-first team for the first time in years.

The bigger on-field question is whether Jaxson Dart is ready to carry that identity. New York's offense gets a lift if Malik Nabers plays through a torn ACL and meniscus recovery — he's practiced fully but hadn't committed to Sunday as of kickoff week — and the Giants' pass rush, led by Brian Burns and Abdul Carter, gives their defense a real chance to bother Dallas early. Dallas, meanwhile, brings a defense that's the actual headline: this is the first live test of an offseason rebuild the front office has been selling as a genuine improvement, not just draft-capital math.

Dallas wins if Prescott gets the ball out fast enough to avoid New York's front seven and the revamped defense validates a full offseason of praise from its own front office.

New York wins if Nabers plays and produces, Dart makes enough plays with his legs and arm to keep pace, and Harbaugh's team looks as physical as he's promised in his first game with it.

New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | 1:00 PM ET — The Saints are without Alvin Kamara's top backup options (Delp, Estimé, Cameron Jordan all out, Kamara himself questionable with a knee), and Detroit doesn't need much offense to cover at home. Pick: DET -7, Over 49.5.

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers | 1:00 PM ET — Both teams are healthy and largely unproven; Chicago's the better roster on paper heading into a division that should be more competitive top to bottom this year. Pick: CHI -3, Under 47.5.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | 1:00 PM ET — Buffalo carries three questionable tags into Houston (Ty Johnson, Jordan Hancock, T.J. Sanders) against a Texans team with a clean injury report and a defense that led the league in sacks last season. Pick: BUF -1.5, Under 44.5.

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | 1:00 PM ET — The lowest total on the board says it all: two rebuilding rosters, Robert Saleh looking for a little payback against the team that fired him, and not much reason to expect points from either side. Pick: TEN -1.5, Under 38.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | 1:00 PM ET — Tampa Bay's banged up at receiver (McMillan doubtful, Egbuka still working back from turf toe) while Joe Burrow and an increasingly aggressive Bengals offense get a favorable opener at home. Pick: CIN -3.5, Over 50.5.

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 1:00 PM ET — Deshaun Watson gets a short audition behind one of the league's worse offensive lines while Jacksonville, coming off a 13-4 breakout, looks to prove it wasn't a fluke at home. Pick: JAX -8.5, Under 39.5.

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1:00 PM ET — Michael Penix Jr. is questionable with a hip injury for Atlanta, and Pittsburgh is the safer bet at home regardless of who's throwing the ball for the Falcons. Pick: PIT -6, Under 40.5.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers | 4:25 PM ET — The largest spread of the week. Arizona is down three regular contributors (Isaiah Adams, Garrett Williams, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson all out), and the Chargers just hired Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator to make this exact kind of game ugly early. Pick: LAC -9.5, Over 47.5.

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 PM ET — Two first-time head coaches, and Miami's without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (oblique). That's a tough combination on the road against a Raiders team breaking in Kubiak's scheme at home. Pick: LV -3, Under 40.5.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | 4:25 PM ET — Green Bay is without Josh Jacobs, and Minnesota's defense is the more finished product heading into a division opener at home. Pick: MIN -2.5, Under 46.5.

That's 13 picks against the spread and 13 on the total to open the season's first full Sunday. We'll check every one of them against the season-to-date record, and we'll be back Monday night for Broncos-Chiefs to close out Week 1.