NFL Preview | October 8, 2026
Week 5 opens with a winless team on a short week. Tampa Bay is 0-4 and starting an undrafted rookie quarterback for the second straight game, while Dallas brings one of the league's hottest offenses home to AT&T Stadium. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video.
A Rookie Quarterback Meets the NFL's Second-Best Scoring Offense
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
KEY STAT
13
Consecutive games Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread, per VegasInsider, including all four this season. Dallas is 3-1 against the spread.
Tampa Bay's four losses have all been close: 33-27 at Cincinnati, 23-19 to Cleveland, 23-16 to Minnesota and 17-14 to Green Bay, a combined 20 points. The trouble is that the offense keeps shrinking. The Bucs have scored 27, 19, 16 and 14 points in that order, and with Baker Mayfield out with a dislocated thumb (ruled out again Wednesday and not expected back before Week 7), undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his second career start. In his first, against Green Bay, he threw two interceptions and was sacked three times; on pressured dropbacks that ended in the pocket he went 4-of-8 for 34 yards and an interception. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (fractured rib) is also out. The defense is the strength, ranking among the league's five best in yards allowed, third-down rate and red-zone touchdown percentage, but Tampa Bay has lost eight of its last nine and hasn't won on the road in nearly a year.
Dallas is 2-2 and trending up. The Cowboys beat Houston 34-30 last Sunday and score 30.5 points per game, second in the NFL. Dak Prescott has thrown for 1,065 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception over the last month, and he's cleared after a minor hand issue. CeeDee Lamb (thigh) was a full participant in practice, and George Pickens gives Prescott a second option on the outside. Every Cowboys game this season has gone over the total. Cornerback Cobie Durant is out and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown is a long shot, and both teams are on a short week after playing Sunday.
The number has come down since the weekend: Dallas opened -10 at DraftKings and is now -8.5, with the total at 47.5. Early in the week, 67% of spread tickets were on Dallas and 69% of tickets were on the over, per VegasInsider.
Tampa Bay wins if Daniels protects the ball against Dallas's pressure and the top-five defense keeps the Cowboys under their season average.
Dallas wins if Prescott, Lamb and Pickens get a rookie quarterback's defense off the field and the Cowboys' offense keeps scoring the way it has all month.
Lean Tampa Bay +8.5 (Lean), and lean the over 47.5 (Toss-up).
THE CARD · TB @ DAL
The line DAL -8.5 (-115) · TB +8.5 (-105) · total 47.5 (O -115, U -105) · opened DAL -10 · DraftKings
This season TB 0-4 ATS, 2-2 O/U · DAL 3-1 ATS, 4-0 O/U
Rest & availability TB short week, Mayfield and Winfield out · DAL short week, Durant out, Overshown a long shot
The public 67% of early spread tickets on DAL · 69% of early tickets on the over (VegasInsider, early week)
Lean TB +8.5 (Lean) · Over ↑ 47.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the number. Every Tampa Bay loss has been by one score and the line has come down a point and a half since open, but the offense is shrinking behind a rookie quarterback and the 13-game cover drought hasn't broken. Dallas games are 4-0 to the over while Tampa Bay's last two went under, which keeps the total a toss-up.
What to Watch For Thursday Night.
Watch how Daniels handles Dallas's pressure after struggling under it last week, and whether Tampa Bay's top-five defense can keep Prescott and Lamb from turning this into a track meet. We'll have the recap Friday, with every card graded and the season record updated.