NFL Preview | October 5, 2026
Week 4 closes with a division rivalry in the Superdome. Atlanta and New Orleans are both 1-2, both coming off very different Week 3 results, and each side of this game has a clear mismatch pointed at the other. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on ESPN (with the ManningCast on ESPN2).
Two Mismatches, One Dome
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN
KEY STAT
173.0
Rushing yards per game for the Falcons, second in the NFL. They face a Saints defense that ranks 27th against the run, allowing 128.7 per game.
Atlanta's first win of the Kevin Stefanski era came on a Thursday night at Lambeau Field, a 35-14 rout of Green Bay with Michael Penix Jr. back from a torn ACL (18-of-25, 256 yards, a touchdown and an interception). The star was Bijan Robinson, who ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries and was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week, while Drake London added 194 receiving yards. The Falcons rank first in rushing defense (47.7 yards allowed per game) but 29th against the pass (263.0), and cornerback A.J. Terrell is on injured reserve. The offense overall is still 27th in scoring at 17.0 points per game.
New Orleans is coming off a rougher day. The Saints lost their home opener to the Raiders 35-27 despite outgaining them 381-340, with four giveaways and turnovers on four of their final five possessions after leading by 11 in the second half. Tyler Shough threw a career-high four touchdowns and is second in the league in passing, and Chris Olave had nine catches for 107 yards, so the passing game is the part of this team that works. The run defense is the part that doesn't, and linebacker Kaden Elliss (calf) and edge rushers Carl Granderson (ankle) and Anfernee Jennings (knee) are all out.
The series carries some weight, too. Atlanta swept the Saints last season (24-10 in New Orleans in November, 19-17 in January), and the Falcons lead the regular-season series 57-56, so a Saints win would even it. Each team is 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 meetings, and per Sports Illustrated the Saints are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games overall.
Atlanta wins if Robinson and the ground game control the clock against the 27th-ranked run defense, and Penix keeps the turnovers down on the road.
New Orleans wins if Shough and Olave exploit the league's 29th-ranked pass defense and the Saints stop handing the ball back in the fourth quarter.
THE CARD · ATL @ NO
The line NO -1.5 (-115) · ATL +1.5 (-105) · total 47.5 · opened NO -2.5 and 45.5 · DraftKings
This season ATL 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U · NO 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Rest & availability ATL 11 days since the TNF win, Terrell on IR, Deablo and Ebukam questionable · NO 8 days since the Raiders loss, Elliss, Granderson and Jennings out, Werner and Fant questionable
Lean ATL +1.5 (Lean) · Over 47.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the matchup. Atlanta's top-ranked run defense and second-ranked run game line up against a Saints defense missing three front-seven players, while New Orleans' passing attack faces the 29th-ranked pass defense. The extra three days of rest and four Saints giveaways last week tilt the side; the total is closer to a coin flip.
What to Watch For Monday Night.
Watch whether Atlanta gets Bijan Robinson going early against the 27th-ranked run defense, and whether the Saints protect the ball after giving it away four times late against Las Vegas. That closes out Week 4. We'll have the recap Tuesday, with every card graded and the season record updated.