NFL Preview | October 4, 2026
Week 4's Sunday slate has 14 games, and three carry real weight: two unbeaten teams meet in Las Vegas, the Eagles own a franchise-first streak nobody wants, and a shaky Patriots team walks into Buffalo missing its two best defensive players. Those three get the full write-up below; the rest get a quick storyline and a lean.
Two Unbeaten Teams Meet in Sin City
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
KEY STAT
50%
Las Vegas's pressure rate this season, first in the NFL under new defensive coordinator Rob Leonard. Kansas City's line already starts an undrafted rookie left tackle.
Kansas City and Las Vegas both enter 3-0, and the last time these two met, back in January, the Raiders won 14-12. It's the first meeting of the Klint Kubiak era in Las Vegas, and the Raiders have scored 25 or more points in three straight games, something they managed only once all of last season under the previous staff. Kenneth Walker III has carried a heavy load for Kansas City, 26 to 30 touches a game, while Patrick Mahomes continues working back from last year's ACL and LCL tear behind a line that includes undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson at left tackle.
The Raiders' defense is the real story. They're fifth in total pressures and first in pressure rate at an even 50%, numbers that look even better given they're only 23rd in blitz rate, meaning they're getting there with four-man rushes more often than not. That's a real problem for a Chiefs line that's already short-handed up front.
Kansas City wins if Mahomes and the passing game pick up the slack when Walker and the run game get stuffed on short yardage, which has happened twice in the last two weeks.
Las Vegas wins if the pass rush gets home the way it has all season and a red-hot offense keeps pace with whatever Kansas City puts up.
THE CARD · KC @ LV
The line KC -4.5 (-115) · LV +4.5 (-105) · total 47.5 · DraftKings
This season KC 3-0 · LV 3-0, both teams undefeated straight up
Rest & availability KC normal week, undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson at LT · LV normal week, first meeting of the Kubiak era
Lean LV +4.5 (Lean) · Over 47.5 (Lean)
Driven by the matchup. The NFL's No. 1 pressure defense against a patchwork offensive line is a real problem for Kansas City, and both offenses have been scoring enough to make the total the safer side of this card.
A Franchise First Nobody Wanted
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
KEY STAT
0
Takeaways by the Eagles through three games, the first time that's happened in franchise history. Only the 16th team ever to do it; of the previous 15, just two made the playoffs.
Philadelphia has forced zero takeaways through three games, the first time that's happened in franchise history and only the 16th time any NFL team has done it. Of the previous 15 teams to do it, only two made the playoffs. The Eagles have also allowed 120-plus rushing yards in each of their first three games for the first time since 1986, and they're coming off a 20-point loss to the Bears in which 38-year-old Case Keenum threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns against a defense that was supposed to be elite.
Los Angeles has its own recent wound. The Rams led Denver 16-0 at halftime last week and lost anyway, 30-26, with Matthew Stafford throwing a pick-six in the collapse. The good injury news is Puka Nacua, back after missing two games with a hip issue and expected to factor into the game plan immediately. The bad news is Aaron Donald, who's missing his third game of the season with back soreness, which means Los Angeles still hasn't fielded the Donald-Garrett pairing that was supposed to define its defense this year, not even once.
Los Angeles wins if Nacua's return opens up the offense enough to avoid another second-half collapse, and the defense finds a pass rush without either of its two biggest offseason additions.
Philadelphia wins if the defense finally forces a takeaway against a Rams offense that just turned the ball over for the loss, and Jalen Hurts builds on a stretch where his third-down play has been the one thing keeping this offense afloat.
THE CARD · LAR @ PHI
The line LAR -3.5 (-112) · PHI +3.5 (-108) · total 42.5 · DraftKings
This season LAR 1-2 · PHI 2-1
Rest & availability LAR normal week, Donald out, Nacua back · PHI normal week, defense still without a takeaway
Lean LAR -3.5 (Toss-up) · Under 42.5 (Lean)
Driven by the trend. Philadelphia's takeaway drought is historically unsustainable, but it hasn't broken yet, and a Rams team getting its top receiver back is worth more than the record suggests. Two shaky offensive performances last week point toward the under.
A Shorthanded Defense Meets the Reigning MVP
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
KEY STAT
2
New England's top cornerback (Christian Gonzalez) and top interior lineman (Christian Barmore), both ruled out this week with shoulder injuries, against an offense led by the NFL's reigning MVP.
New England is 1-2 and Drake Maye has looked nothing like the quarterback who pushed for MVP consideration a year ago, three shaky weeks that led to him popping up on the injury report this week with the same shoulder that bothered him last season. He's been cleared to play with no designation after a full week of practice, but the bigger problem is who won't be lining up around him: cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore, the Patriots' two best defensive players, are both out with shoulder injuries, and seven more players carry questionable tags into Buffalo.
Josh Allen and the Bills are 3-0, even after an underwhelming outing against the Chargers that didn't look like a team playing its best football. Allen took a knee hit on a fourth-quarter scramble last week but isn't on the injury report at all, and edge rusher Greg Rousseau has been one of the best pass rushers in the league through the first month, which is bad news for a Patriots line that already has its hands full.
New England wins if Maye's shoulder isn't actually a limiting factor and the Patriots' patchwork secondary somehow holds up against the reigning MVP.
Buffalo wins if Rousseau and the pass rush take advantage of a short-handed Patriots front, and Allen keeps doing what he's done all season even in an imperfect performance.
THE CARD · NE @ BUF
The line NE +7 (-115) · BUF -7 (-105) · total 50.5 · DraftKings
This season NE 1-2 · BUF 3-0
Rest & availability NE normal week, Gonzalez and Barmore both out, Maye cleared · BUF normal week, Allen not on the injury report
Lean BUF -7 (Lean) · Over 50.5 (Lean)
Driven by the injury report. Losing the top cornerback and top interior defender in the same week against the reigning MVP is a tough ask for a team already off to a slow start.
The Rest of the Slate
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | 9:30 AM ET (London) — The Colts bring the better offense across the Atlantic against a Commanders team still adjusting at quarterback. Lean: IND -4.5, and lean the over 46.5.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants | 1:00 PM ET — New York is adjusting to life without Jaxson Dart, with Jameis Winston now the starter. Lean: ARI -2.5, and lean the under 44.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals | 1:00 PM ET — Joe Burrow against Trevor Lawrence, with the highest total of the early slate. Lean: CIN -2.5, and lean the over 51.5.
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans | 1:00 PM ET — Houston's defense gives it the edge at home against a Dallas team still finding consistency. Lean: HOU -3, and lean the under 48.5.
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | 1:00 PM ET — Tyson Bagent starts again for Chicago with Caleb Williams still out, against a Jets team still finding its own identity. Lean: CHI -3.5, and lean the under 43.5.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1:00 PM ET — The lowest total of the week says this one stays close and low-scoring. Lean: GB -3, and lean the under 38.5.
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens | 1:00 PM ET — Derrick Henry gets a crack at his former team, and the biggest spread of the week reflects the gap between these two rosters right now. Lean: BAL -11.5, and lean the under 41.5.
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings | 4:05 PM ET — De'Von Achane tore his ACL last week and is done for the season, leaving an 0-3 Dolphins offense to face an undefeated Vikings defense with its top weapon gone. Lean: MIN -10, and lean the under 38.5.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks | 4:25 PM ET — The defending champs are the more complete team, even accounting for home-field games both ways. Lean: SEA -7, and lean the under 42.5.
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | 4:25 PM ET — San Francisco's the new No. 1 team in this week's power rankings, and that has to count for something at home. Lean: SF -3, and lean the over 48.5.
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | 8:20 PM ET — Detroit's offense should have the edge in the week's lone Sunday night game. Lean: DET -3.5, and lean the over 51.5.
What to Watch For Sunday.
That's 14 leans against the spread and 14 on the total for Week 4's Sunday slate. We'll check every one against the season-to-date record, and every card gets graded in the recap.

