NFL Preview | October 12, 2026
Week 5 closes with the two names at the top of the Super Bowl board. Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford, the last two MVPs, meet at SoFi Stadium with the highest total of the week, and Aaron Donald is expected to be back on the Rams' defensive line. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on ESPN and ABC.
Two MVPs, the Week's Highest Total, and a Returning Donald
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
KEY STAT
7
Rushing touchdowns for Josh Allen through four games. Buffalo's offense is the league's highest-scoring, per Squawka, and it meets the third-best pass defense.
Buffalo is 3-1 after a 29-26 home loss to New England that exposed its secondary. Josh Allen has 1,039 passing yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions, and he is a threat to score on the ground nearly every week. He has history at SoFi too, with six touchdowns in a 44-42 loss to the Rams in 2024. The injury list is the concern: defensive tackle Ed Oliver (knee) and receiver Josh Palmer (shoulder) are out, and DJ Moore (shoulder) and cornerback Dee Alford (ankle) are questionable after Moore left last week's game.
Los Angeles is 2-2 and coming off a 24-20 comeback win over Philadelphia in which the Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down. Aaron Donald missed that game with back soreness, practiced fully Friday and says he has had no setbacks. Tight end Colby Parkinson and cornerback Jaylen Watson are also cleared, and safety Quentin Lake is questionable but trending the right way. Myles Garrett remains on injured reserve after knee surgery and isn't expected back until Week 7 at Las Vegas. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua face a Buffalo secondary that just struggled against Drake Maye.
The market has leaned toward the home team this week: Los Angeles opened -2.5 at DraftKings and is now -3.5, while the 54.5 total is the highest on the Week 5 board.
Buffalo wins if Allen takes advantage of a Rams defense that is without Garrett, and Moore or the other receivers hold up against a good pass defense.
Los Angeles wins if Donald collapses the pocket and takes away Allen's escape lanes, and Stafford and Nacua attack a banged-up Buffalo secondary.
Lean Los Angeles -3.5 (Lean), and lean the over 54.5 (Toss-up).
THE CARD · BUF @ LAR
The line LAR -3.5 (-105) · BUF +3.5 (-115) · total 54.5 (O -115, U -105) · opened LAR -2.5 · DraftKings
This season BUF 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U · LAR 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Rest & availability BUF 8 days, Oliver and Palmer out, Moore and Alford questionable · LAR 8 days, Donald, Parkinson and Watson cleared, Lake questionable, Garrett on IR
Lean LAR -3.5 (Lean) · Over ↑ 54.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the injury report. Donald returns to a Rams front facing a Bills team missing Oliver and possibly Moore, and Buffalo's secondary is banged up. The total is the highest on the board, with the league's highest-scoring offense on one side and a top pass defense on the other, which keeps it a toss-up.
What to Watch For Monday Night.
Watch whether Donald's snaps change how much room Allen gets to run, and whether Moore plays. That closes out Week 5. We'll have the recap Tuesday, with every card graded and the season record updated.