NFL Preview | October 1, 2026
Week 4 opens with a genuine AFC North scrap: the Steelers and Browns both sit at 2-1, both just won in different ways, and the total on the board is the lowest of the week. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video from Huntington Bank Field.
A Division Game With the Lowest Total of the Week
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
KEY STAT
0-3
Deshaun Watson's career record against the Steelers, even as he leads a Browns offense that's thrown multiple touchdown passes with no interceptions in back-to-back wins.
Aaron Rodgers, who has said this will be his final NFL season, threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns in Pittsburgh's upset win over Cincinnati last week, and the run game finally showed up too, 138 yards after averaging well under 100 in each of the first two weeks. The Steelers' secondary is down a man for a different reason: Pittsburgh traded cornerback Joey Porter Jr. to the Cowboys on Tuesday night after the two sides never reached a contract extension, a saga that kept him out of every game this season before the deal. He won't play for either team Thursday, but the trade leaves a real hole behind a defense that leaned on T.J. Watt's pick-six to salvage a messy Week 1 win over Atlanta.
Deshaun Watson has been the better story lately. He's thrown for 587 yards, 5 touchdowns, and just 1 interception this season, and his legs have become a bigger weapon too, 45 rushing yards on 11 carries in last week's comeback win over Carolina. Cleveland's pass rush has been the real engine, though: the Browns own the NFL's second-highest pressure rate at 42.2%, with interior lineman Mason Graham's four sacks tied for second in the league, all without star edge rusher Myles Garrett, who left in an offseason trade. Pittsburgh's secondary now has its own thin spot after trading Porter, and Cleveland will be down two starting offensive linemen of its own, center Elgton Jenkins (concussion) and guard Teven Jenkins (back), both ruled out.
Both teams are 2-1 against the spread, and DraftKings has Pittsburgh -2.5 with the total bet from 40.5 down to 38.5, the lowest number on this week's board. Our number disagrees on the side: even after docking Cleveland two points for the two starting linemen it is missing, three weeks of margins have these teams about even, and the home field makes the Browns a half-point favorite rather than a field-goal underdog. That is a three-point gap, which clears our Strong threshold, with the early-season caveat that three games is a thin base. The total sits almost exactly on the book. Lean Cleveland +2.5 (Strong) and lean the over 38.5 (Toss-up).
Pittsburgh wins if the pass rush gets to Watson behind a shorthanded Cleveland line and the run game that finally showed up last week carries over.
Cleveland wins if Watson keeps the turnover-free streak alive and the Browns' interior pressure exploits a Pittsburgh secondary that just traded away its top cornerback.
THE CARD · PIT @ CLE
The line CLE +2.5 · total 38.5 (total down 2 since open)
Our number CLE -0.5 · total 39.2 — 3 pts from the book on the side, 0.7 on the total
Last 3 PIT 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U · CLE 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Rest & availability PIT short week · CLE short week · PIT without RB Rico Dowdle (toe) and CB Joey Porter Jr. (traded to Dallas Tuesday; had not played this season); CLE without C Elgton Jenkins (concussion) and G Teven Jenkins (back)
The public 56% of tickets on PIT · 51% on the under
Lean CLE +2.5 (Strong) · Over 38.5 (Toss-up)
Driven by the number. Our number already docks Cleveland two points for the two starting linemen out, and it still has this game closer to a pick than to Pittsburgh by a field goal: three weeks of margins say these teams are about even, and the home side gets the hook. Three games is three games, though. Through Week 6 the number is built on a handful of games and is deliberately shrunk toward average; the news and the market carry more weight than usual.
What to Watch For Thursday Night.
Watch whether Cleveland's interior pressure (namely Mason Graham who has four sacks in three games), can get to Rodgers behind a short-handed Pittsburgh line, and watch whether the Steelers' run game that broke out last week was real or a one-week outlier. We'll have the recap Friday, plus the season-to-date record heading into a full Week 4 slate.