NBA Preview | October 22, 2026

Two games Thursday, both on ESPN, and both built around a question the first week can actually start to answer. LeBron James suits up for his first home game in Philadelphia against Cleveland, the franchise he left twice and turned down again this summer. Then the Nuggets, the last team in the league to open, walk into Oklahoma City for the first look at the two most recent MVPs on the same floor. Both games get the full card. All times are Eastern.

LeBron's First Night at Home Comes Against Home

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers | 7:00 PM ET | ESPN

KEY STAT

4-0

Cleveland's record against Philadelphia last season. That was before LeBron James and Jaylen Brown arrived, and before the Cavaliers had a full season of James Harden.

Philadelphia's new group already has a win that counts. The 76ers won 106-100 at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday while the Knicks raised their banner, with Tyrese Maxey scoring 28, Jaylen Brown adding 19 and Joel Embiid putting up 13 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. LeBron James, opening a record 24th season, had 14 points, nine rebounds and seven assists and said afterward that the group is still new to each other, pointing to unforced turnovers and offensive rebounds allowed in the first half. Nick Nurse called it one game. The frontcourt depth is still thin, with Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow and Tacko Fall out and Dean Wade questionable, though Adem Bona and Anfernee Simons are off the report.

Cleveland opens its season here, and the opponent could not be more pointed. Many expected James to return to the Cavaliers a third time this summer; instead he signed with Philadelphia, and Cleveland kept the core that reached the Eastern Conference finals before losing to the eventual champion Knicks. Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are back, and James Harden starts his 18th season and his first full one in Cleveland after arriving at last season's trade deadline. Allen is questionable with knee tendinopathy, and Khalifa Diop and Nae'Qwan Tomlin are out.

The matchup to watch is Mobley and Allen against an Embiid who has little behind him. If Allen can't go, Cleveland loses some of the size that let it sweep the season series a year ago, and Philadelphia's bigs get a lighter night. The market has already come back two points toward the Cavaliers since it opened.

Cleveland wins if Mitchell and Harden control the half court, Mobley wins his minutes against Embiid, and the Cavaliers punish the turnovers James admitted were a problem on Tuesday.

Philadelphia wins if Maxey keeps up Tuesday's pace, Embiid stays on the floor against a frontcourt that may be missing Allen, and the home crowd gets the version of James that runs the offense.

Lean Philadelphia -2.5 (Toss-up), and lean the under 235.5 (Lean).

THE CARD · CLE @ PHI

The line PHI -2.5 (-120) · CLE +2.5 (+100) · total 235.5 (O -112, U -108) · DraftKings (spread moved 2 toward Cleveland from the open, total up 2)

Our number PHI -3 · total 229 · 0.5 pts from the book on the side, 6.5 on the total

Last 1 CLE no games yet · PHI 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U

Rest & availability CLE season opener, Diop and Tomlin out, Allen questionable · PHI 2 days rest, Hukporti, Barlow and Fall out, Wade questionable

The public 51% of tickets on CLE · 58% on the over (SportsbookReview, as of Oct. 21)

Lean PHI -2.5 (Toss-up) · Under ↓ 235.5 (Lean)

Driven by the number. Our totals are back: with 11 games in the books, the league scoring average has something real under it, and our number now gives each team credit only for what it has shown, shrunk hard toward average. On the side, Philadelphia's one result barely moves it off home court, which puts us half a point from the book. On the total we sit 6.5 below a number that has climbed two points since it opened.

The Last Team to Open Draws the Hardest Building

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 9:30 PM ET | ESPN

KEY STAT

32

Points Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored in Tuesday's win in San Antonio, on 27 shots, with six rebounds, three steals and three blocks. Nikola Jokić gets his first look at him on Thursday.

Oklahoma City already has its revenge win. The Thunder went into San Antonio on Tuesday and won 116-104 against the team that ended their season last spring, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 32 and Chet Holmgren blocking four shots after the conference finals that had everyone asking about him. Ajay Mitchell had six assists. The roster is thinner than the 2025 title team after the summer trades of Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, and Nikola Topić, Thomas Sorber and Otega Oweh are still out, but the top of the rotation looked like itself.

Denver is the last of the 30 teams to tip off, and it opens with continuity. Nikola Jokić, a three-time MVP, starts with Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson and Aaron Gordon, the same five who started 23 games together last season, and David Adelman begins his second full season as head coach. The questions are behind them: the bench that helped Denver to 54 wins is thinner, DeMar DeRozan is adjusting to a reserve role, Julian Strawther is out with a knee sprain and Spencer Jones is questionable.

The two most recent MVPs meeting on the third night of the season is reason enough to stay up for this one. The practical question is Murray against Gilgeous-Alexander, since Denver's best chance is making each of those 27 attempts harder than Tuesday's, and whether Jokić can create enough with a thinner bench to keep the margin inside the number.

Denver wins if Jokić picks apart Holmgren's help defense, Murray makes Gilgeous-Alexander work for every look, and the starting five's familiarity shows in the first quarter.

Oklahoma City wins if Gilgeous-Alexander gets to the line the way he usually does, Holmgren carries Tuesday's confidence into the Jokić matchup, and the Thunder win the bench minutes.

Lean Denver +7.5 (Lean), and lean the under 235.5 (Lean).

THE CARD · DEN @ OKC

The line OKC -7.5 (-115) · DEN +7.5 (-105) · total 235.5 (O -110, U -110) · DraftKings (spread unchanged from the open, total up 3)

Our number OKC -3.5 · total 230.5 · 4 pts from the book on the side, 5 on the total

Last 1 DEN no games yet · OKC 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U

Rest & availability DEN season opener, Strawther out, Spencer Jones questionable · OKC 2 days rest, Topić, Sorber and Oweh out

The public 60% of tickets on DEN · 73% on the over (SportsbookReview, as of Oct. 21)

Lean DEN +7.5 (Lean) · Under ↓ 235.5 (Lean)

Driven by the number. Oklahoma City's win in San Antonio moved our number toward the Thunder, but not to 7.5 against a Denver starting five that comes back intact. The public is on Denver and heavily on the over; our total sits five points under the line.

What to Watch For Thursday.

Watch how James is received in his first home game and whether Allen is available for Cleveland, then whether Denver's intact starting five can keep the margin inside 7.5 in Oklahoma City. That's two cards on the side and two on the total. We'll have the recap Friday with both graded.

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