The Southwest is the division the Finals ran through, and it opens the whole NBA season on Tuesday night when Oklahoma City walks into San Antonio for a Game 7 rematch. That is the division in one sentence. The Spurs won 62 games, won the West in seven, and lost the Finals in five, then spent the summer keeping everyone and starting three guards. Houston won 52 and went out in the first round without Kevin Durant, and gets Fred VanVleet back after a lost year. New Orleans and Dallas both finished 26-56 and both have new head coaches, one with Zion Williamson and a toe to worry about, the other with Kyrie Irving back and three former No. 1 picks on the floor. Memphis traded Ja Morant and drafted Cameron Boozer third. Six division previews in six days, and this is the sixth and last.

San Antonio went 62-20, won the Southwest by ten games, and took the second seed. The playoffs went Portland in five, Minnesota in six and Oklahoma City in seven, with the Game 7 a 111-103 win in Oklahoma City on May 30. Then New York took the Finals in five, the last of it a 94-90 loss at home on June 13 in which the Spurs scored 18 in the fourth quarter. The deadline was nothing: San Antonio was one of three teams that stood pat on February 5, and the only February move was parting with Jeremy Sochan on the 13th. The summer was about keeping people. Harrison Barnes re-signed on June 29 for one year and $8 million, Julian Champagnie took a three-year, $45 million extension the same day, and Tobias Harris came from Detroit on July 1 for two years and $31 million, the full mid-level. Victor Wembanyama signed his five-year max extension on July 10, projected at $252.3 million starting in 2027-28, and turned down the language that could have pushed it past $300 million. The draft brought Kentucky's Jayden Quaintance at No. 20 and UConn's Tarris Reed Jr. at No. 26, the second one via a draft-night trade with Denver; Quaintance had knee surgery on July 16 and is out until 2027. Billy Donovan arrived as lead assistant on July 3 after Sean Sweeney left to coach Orlando. Mitch Johnson, in his second full season as head coach, announced the opening-night five to ESPN on October 16: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell and Wembanyama, three guards and no Harris. USA TODAY projects 60-22, second in the West, two wins off the team that went to the Finals.

The swing factor is the third guard, because Fox, Castle and Harper played 69 minutes together last season and Johnson is starting them anyway. The Finals version of that trio was outscored by 47 in 25 minutes, and the preseason sample was 11 minutes against a resting Phoenix team. Harris has not played since a calf strain in camp and is questionable for the opener; Quaintance is out until 2027; everyone else is available. The Spurs finished the preseason 2-3 after beating Sacramento 126-97 on Friday with nine regulars back in the lineup. The roster math is a hard cap: 14 standard contracts and about $2 million under the tax, so the team you see in October is the team until the deadline, and Keldon Johnson's expiring $17.5 million is the one chip. Worth knowing: the opener is the Game 7 rematch with Oklahoma City on Tuesday, the last leg of NBC's opening-night tripleheader, and it is the first time the Thunder see this lineup for real.

Houston went 52-30, second in the Southwest and fifth in the West, and lost in the first round to the Lakers in six, the last of it a 98-78 loss at home on May 1 in which the Rockets went 5-of-28 from three. Kevin Durant missed nearly all of that series with a knee and then an ankle, and Fred VanVleet missed the whole season after tearing his right ACL in a September 2025 workout. The deadline was zero trades. The summer was about re-signing: VanVleet picked up his $25 million option on June 29, Tari Eason re-signed on July 9 for five years and $81.5 million, Marcus Smart came over from the Lakers on July 10 for two years and $13.1 million, and Bogdan Bogdanovic signed a minimum on July 8. Dorian Finney-Smith went to Charlotte on July 6 for cash and three seconds, Josh Okogie signed in Utah on July 9, and Aaron Holiday went to Italy on August 19. There was no first-round pick, so the draft was a June 24 trade up to No. 31 for Ohio State guard Bruce Thornton. Amen Thompson signed a five-year, $208 million extension on September 3. Durant did not get one, and general manager Rafael Stone said on September 22 that the two sides would sit down at the end of this season. Ime Udoka's fourth-season five, confirmed to Rockets Wire on September 30, is VanVleet, Thompson, Durant, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun, with Reed Sheppard, Smart and Eason first off the bench. USA TODAY projects 55-27, fourth in the West, three wins better than last year with the point guard back.

The swing factor is the last four seconds of the shot clock, because Houston shot 36% in them last season and had nobody to hand the ball to when Durant sat. VanVleet is the fix, and he played 29 minutes in the preseason finale without a restriction; Steven Adams is back from January ankle surgery and expected for the opener, though neither veteran will play back-to-backs early. Nobody is listed out as of October 17. The Rockets went 2-1 in the preseason and beat Oklahoma City 116-89 in Thursday's finale, with Bogdanovic hitting five threes. The roster is 18 under contract with a cut due by Monday, and the payroll sits $14,000 under the tax line, so the front office has no room to add anything in-season. Here's the thing: the projection has Houston five wins behind the division winner, and the whole gap is how many of the 82 Durant plays at 38.

New Orleans went 26-56, third in the Southwest and eleventh in the West on a season-series tiebreaker over Dallas, after firing Willie Green on November 15 and going 24-46 under interim coach James Borrego. The 2026 first belonged to Atlanta unprotected from the Derik Queen trade and became the No. 8 pick, so the only draft pick was SMU's Jaron Pierre Jr. at No. 58, a New Orleans native now on a two-way deal. The deadline sent Jose Alvarado to New York on February 5 for Dalen Terry and two seconds. Jamahl Mosley was hired as head coach on May 18 after five seasons in Orlando. Kevon Looney's $8 million option was declined on June 29 and he signed with the Lakers; DeAndre Jordan re-signed for a 19th season on June 30. Trendon Watford signed on August 17 for one year and $2.9 million, and Bennedict Mathurin agreed on August 26 to two years and $16 million after asking the Clippers to pull his qualifying offer. Jordan Hawkins and Micah Peavy went to Memphis on September 8 for AJ Johnson and Taj Gibson, who was waived the next day and retired to join the Bulls' staff. Saddiq Bey signed a three-year, $55.5 million extension on September 18. Zion Williamson is extension-eligible and did not get one; the reporting in August was that the team wants another full season first. Mosley's first five, per Sports Illustrated on October 17, is Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Williamson and Yves Missi, though USA TODAY's September 23 preview had Bey in for Missi and no true center. USA TODAY projects 34-48, eleventh in the West, eight wins better than last year.

The swing factor is Murray, because he has played 45 games in two Pelicans seasons and enters this one with a toe contusion that kept him out of the last three preseason games. Mosley called it precautionary on October 11 and would not commit to the opener. Nobody else is on the report. The Pelicans went 3-1 in the preseason and won Friday's finale over Washington 107-106 while going 7-of-36 from three. The roster is set at 15 after Kobe Bufkin and Jalon Moore were waived on Saturday. In plain terms: Zion played 62 games last year, and the Pelicans have no lottery pick to protect, so a healthy Murray makes this a play-in team and an absent one makes it last year again.

Dallas went 26-56, fourth in the Southwest and twelfth in the West on the tiebreaker lost to New Orleans, and was eliminated on March 23. The deadline was the Anthony Davis trade: on February 5 Davis, Jaden Hardy, D'Angelo Russell and Dante Exum went to Washington in a three-team deal that returned Khris Middleton, AJ Johnson, Tyus Jones, Marvin Bagley III, two firsts and three seconds. Then the building changed. Nico Harrison had been fired in November; Masai Ujiri was hired as president on May 4, Jason Kidd was out on May 19 after a 205-205 run, and Dusty May came from Michigan on June 23, hours before the draft. That draft was Michigan's Morez Johnson Jr. at No. 9 and Valencia guard Sergio De Larrea at No. 25, picked up in the four-team trade that sent No. 30 to Phoenix. The six-team trade that went official July 8 sent Middleton to Washington and Johnson to Memphis and brought back Santi Aldama and Marcus Sasser. Zaccharie Risacher, the 2024 No. 1 pick, came from Atlanta on July 19 for Ryan Nembhard. Naji Marshall signed a three-year extension on August 2 reported at $52.2 million, Klay Thompson was bought out on August 21 and went to Miami, Brandon Williams signed with Golden State on August 26, and Dwight Powell came back on a minimum on September 25. May's five, per Sports Illustrated on October 11, is Kyrie Irving, Risacher, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, with May saying on October 14 that the lineup could change nightly. USA TODAY projects 32-50, twelfth in the West, six wins better than last year.

The swing factor is Irving, because Dallas ranked 27th on offense without him and nobody knows what a 34-year-old looks like after an ACL. He played his first game in 19 months on October 11 and scored 17 in 22 minutes. Dereck Lively II has no timeline after December foot surgery, Aldama has not played since a March knee scope, and Tarik Biberovic has a heel; everyone else, Irving included, played in Friday's finale. The Mavericks went 1-3 in the preseason and gave up 135 twice, with Flagg closing on 26 points and 12 rebounds against Atlanta. Sixteen standard contracts means a cut by Monday, and the decision is Powell or Moussa Cisse. The strange part is the shape of it: Irving, Flagg and Risacher are all former No. 1 picks, the coach won a national title this spring and has never coached an NBA game, and the projection says 32 wins, which is a lot of talent for twelfth place.

Memphis went 25-57, last in the Southwest and thirteenth in the West, and was eliminated on March 25. Ja Morant played 20 games. The deadline was the teardown: Jaren Jackson Jr., John Konchar, Jock Landale and Vince Williams Jr. went to Utah on February 3 for Walter Clayton Jr., Kyle Anderson, Taylor Hendricks, Georges Niang and three future firsts. The lottery jumped them from sixth to third, and the pick on June 23 was Duke's Cameron Boozer, followed by Karim Lopez at No. 21 after two trade-downs from No. 16 and BYU's Richie Saunders at No. 32, who is still unsigned after a February ACL tear. Morant went to Portland on June 29 for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray, no picks. The six-team trade that went official July 8 sent Santi Aldama to Dallas and brought Isaiah Stewart, AJ Johnson, D'Angelo Russell and a protected 2030 Golden State first. Quinten Post arrived the same day when Golden State declined to match a three-year, $30 million offer sheet. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was bought out on July 25 and signed in Philadelphia. On September 8 Johnson and Taj Gibson went to New Orleans for Jordan Hawkins and Micah Peavy; Russell was waived on September 25 and Hawkins on October 2. Tuomas Iisalo's third-season five, per USA TODAY's September 24 preview, is Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Grant, Boozer and Zach Edey, with the CBS Sports depth chart putting Jaylen Wells at the three and Grant on the bench instead. USA TODAY projects 20-62, fourteenth in the West, the lowest number in the division by twelve wins.

The swing factor is Edey's ankles, because he played 11 games last season around two surgeries, and the insurance plan is Stewart, who sprained his own ankle on October 5 and is out until at least October 23. Edey debuted on October 7 and is expected for the opener. GG Jackson II and Peavy are day-to-day with ankles of their own. The Grizzlies went 3-1 in the preseason, and Boozer led Friday's finale against Charlotte with 19 points. Two cuts are due by Monday, with Murray and Peavy the names on the bubble, and Wells' extension window closes on October 19. Don't read too much into a 3-1 October: the forecast is 20 wins, and the reasons to watch are a No. 3 pick being handed the offense in week one and a Grant contract with $70.6 million left on it that is a deadline chip from day one.

The top two are not an argument, and the order of them is barely one. San Antonio is the team that beat Oklahoma City in a Game 7 and brings back every piece of it, with Harris added and Wembanyama a year older; the only thing that moves the number is whether the three-guard lineup holds up against big wings or Johnson goes back to Champagnie by November. Houston at full strength is a top-four team in the West on paper, and the gap to the Spurs is one Durant injury wide in either direction. The middle is the argument. We lean New Orleans third because Zion, Murphy, Jones and Missi are available on opening night and the only question is Murray's toe, while Dallas is starting a center rotation of Washington and Gafford with Lively on no timeline and a point guard 19 months removed from his last real game. If Irving holds up and May settles on a lineup by Thanksgiving, Dallas has the better April roster, and this flips. Memphis is last because the projection says so by twelve wins and nothing in October argued with it. Call it a lean, not a law, and the thinnest of the four calls is New Orleans over Dallas.

San Antonio goes first, before anyone else in the division, hosting Oklahoma City on Tuesday, October 20 at 9:30pm Eastern on NBC and Peacock, the last game of the league's opening-night tripleheader and the Game 7 rematch. Wednesday, October 21 has the other four: Dallas at Houston at 8:30pm Eastern on regional TV, the first regular-season game for Irving in 19 months and the first for May; Utah at Memphis at 8pm Eastern for Boozer's debut; and Indiana at New Orleans at 8pm Eastern for Mosley's first game and, maybe, Murray's. Friday the 23rd puts Houston and San Antonio together at the Moody Center in Austin at 9:30pm Eastern on Prime Video, the division's first national window after the opener, while Dallas is at Indiana, Memphis is at Golden State for the Chase Center opener, and New Orleans is at Utah. Saturday the 24th is the Dallas home opener against San Antonio at 8pm Eastern, with Houston at Atlanta and New Orleans at Denver, and Sunday the 25th sends Memphis to Sacramento. We will have the Card for all of it.

That closes the six: Atlantic, Central, Southeast, Northwest, Pacific and Southwest. Records and playoff results from last season via ESPN, the Associated Press and Basketball-Reference; projections from USA TODAY's August 26 preseason forecast; projected lineups from ESPN's October 16 Spurs report, Rockets Wire via Sports Illustrated on September 30, Sports Illustrated's October 17 lineup rankings for the Pelicans and October 11 Mavericks report, and USA TODAY's September 24 Grizzlies preview with the CBS Sports depth chart; injury statuses from team beat coverage, Hoops Rumors and CBS Sports as of October 16 to 17; openers from the August 13 schedule releases. Preseason records are final. Every named player was roster-checked on October 17.