All five Southeast teams open on the same Wednesday night, October 21, and two of them open against each other: Atlanta at Orlando, the division's two playoff teams from a year ago, before anyone else has played a minute. That is the Southeast in one sentence: the Hawks won it at 46-36 and the Magic took the eighth seed and a 3-1 lead on Detroit, and then Miami traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo and changed the whole conversation. Charlotte sold LaMelo Ball to Minnesota for Naz Reid and a drawer full of picks; Washington won the lottery, drafted AJ Dybantsa, and kept Trae Young for four more years. Six division previews in six days, and this is the third. The Northwest is next.

Miami went 43-39, finished tenth in the East, and lost the 9-10 play-in game at Charlotte 127-126 in overtime on April 14, the first spring without a playoff series in Miami since 2019. The Heat scored plenty at 120.9 points a game, most in the division, and allowed 118.5 of them, which is the whole story of a team that lost 10 of its last 15. Then the summer happened in one deal. On July 6 the Heat made official the trade that brought Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis from Milwaukee for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, the rights to No. 13 pick Nate Ament, first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a 2030 swap and a 2033 second. Around it: Norman Powell left for Chicago on July 1 after averaging 21.7 a night, Andrew Wiggins opted in and took a new three-year, $64 million deal on June 29, Tim Hardaway Jr. signed for one year and $6.5 million, Simone Fontecchio re-signed for a year, Klay Thompson arrived on two years and $11.5 million on August 23 after his Dallas buyout, Nick Richards came in on a one-year deal on August 27, and Pelle Larsson signed a four-year, $60 million extension on September 18. The draft was Louisville guard Ryan Conwell at No. 37 after a swap of seconds with Oklahoma City. Erik Spoelstra's nineteenth-season five is Davion Mitchell, Thompson, Wiggins, Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. USA TODAY projects 49-33, fourth in the East, which is a six-win jump for a roster that swapped its leading scorer and its best young players for the best player in the division.

The swing factor is the ball-handling, because the defense is not in doubt. Antetokounmpo and Adebayo together is the best frontcourt pair in the East on paper, and USA TODAY's preview asked the question out loud: who brings it up? Mitchell is a defender first, Thompson is 36 and here to shoot, and the plan is to stagger the two bigs so one is always at center with Portis covering the rest. The injury report as of October 13 is short: Dru Smith is out with a calf strain through at least the first couple of weeks, and Larsson was doubtful for the last preseason games with a lingering illness. Worth knowing before you set expectations: Thompson is the one starting spot anybody in Miami is debating, and the challenger is Larsson, the guy they just paid.

Atlanta went 46-36, won the division, took the sixth seed without a play-in game for the first time since 2021, and lost in six to the Knicks, who went on to win the title. Game 6 was a 140-89 loss at home, the franchise's worst playoff defeat since 1956, and the number to hold next to it is 28-15, the Hawks' record from January 9 onward, the day they traded Trae Young to Washington for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. Jalen Johnson made his first All-Star team and first All-NBA team along the way, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker won Most Improved. The summer kept the group and added defense. Quin Snyder signed a multi-year extension on June 8, McCollum took a one-year, $21 million extension on June 22, and the draft on June 23 brought Houston guard Kingston Flemings at No. 8 and St. John's big Zuby Ejiofor at No. 23. Aaron Wiggins arrived from Oklahoma City for two seconds on July 6, Jock Landale re-signed for one year and $14 million, and on July 19 a three-team deal sent Zaccharie Risacher to Dallas and brought back Lu Dort from the Thunder. Jonathan Kuminga's option was declined on June 29 and he signed with Minnesota, and on September 22 Atlanta turned Buddy Hield and Ryan Nembhard into Dorian Finney-Smith from Charlotte. Snyder's fifth-season five is McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu. USA TODAY projects 43-39, ninth in the East, three wins fewer than the team that just won the division with most of the same five.

The swing factor is the half-court offense, because the defense is already a top-ten unit. Atlanta ranked 14th on offense last season and 15th in the half court, and the summer's additions, Dort, Wiggins and Finney-Smith, are wings who guard. Snyder has said he wants a turnover-forcing defense and around 40 threes a night, and the best five from last year posted a net rating of plus-20, so the starters are not the question. The injury report as of October 14 lists only the depth: Mouhamed Gueye is out after July foot surgery, and rookie center Henri Veesaar tore his ACL on September 21 and is done for the year. The strange part is the calendar: Young comes back to Atlanta on February 1, and by then you will know whether this projection or last spring's record was closer to the truth.

Orlando went 45-37, took the eighth seed by routing Charlotte 121-90 in the play-in on April 17, and then led the 60-win Pistons 3-1 before losing three straight, the last one 116-94 in Detroit on May 3 with Franz Wagner out with a calf strain. The Magic were 34-23 with Jalen Suggs on the floor and 11-14 without him, and Wagner played only 34 games, which is the kind of season that gets a coach fired even when the record looks fine. It did: Jamahl Mosley was dismissed on May 4 after five seasons and three straight first-round exits, and Spurs associate head coach Sean Sweeney was hired on June 1 for his first head job. The roster barely moved. Tyus Jones had already been sent to Charlotte for cash on February 4 to duck the tax, Jonathan Isaac was waived on June 27 and re-signed on July 1 on a one-year deal, Nikola Vučević came home on one year and $3.9 million the same day, Jevon Carter re-signed for a year and $3.5 million, and Moritz Wagner left for Brooklyn on two years and $19 million. There was no first-round pick; the draft was a second-round swap with Washington that landed South Florida center Izaiyah Nelson at No. 51 on a two-way. Anthony Black is not expected to get an extension before the October 19 deadline, so he is headed to restricted free agency. Sweeney's first-season five is Suggs, Desmond Bane, Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. USA TODAY projects 36-46, eleventh in the East, and wrote that Orlando may be a candidate to drop off.

The swing factor is the shooting, because Sweeney was hired to fix an offense and inherited the defense already. The Magic have had a below-average offense for 14 straight seasons and ranked 28th on wide-open threes last year, and the early preseason returns show the three-point rate climbing toward 45 percent of attempts. Health is the other half of it: Black has missed the whole preseason with a sprained right ankle and was still out on October 13, and Isaac was limited in camp by the left knee that ended his last season in March. Call it a lean, not a law: if Suggs and Wagner play 65 games each this is a playoff team again, and if they don't, the number USA TODAY printed is the floor you should be looking at. The opener is Wednesday, October 21, at home against Atlanta, a division game before anyone has a rhythm.

Washington went 17-65, the worst record in the NBA and the second-worst in franchise history, with the league's worst defense at 122.7 points allowed per 100. The two big trades of the season did not help the record at all: Young arrived from Atlanta on January 9 and played five games, and Anthony Davis came from Dallas on February 5 with D'Angelo Russell, Jaden Hardy and Dante Exum for Khris Middleton, AJ Johnson, Marvin Bagley III and two firsts, then never suited up. The lottery paid for it: Washington won the No. 1 pick on May 11 and on June 23 took BYU wing AJ Dybantsa, the first Wizards No. 1 since John Wall in 2010. Young declined his option and re-signed on a four-year, $212 million deal agreed June 22, Deandre Ayton came from the Lakers on July 7 for Hardy and two seconds, and on July 8 a six-team trade sent Russell to Memphis and brought Middleton back on a three-year, $17.6 million sign-and-trade. On August 20 Washington took Tre Mann from Charlotte for Cam Whitmore in a five-team deal, and Anthony Gill re-signed on a one-year deal on September 16 for the fifteenth spot. Brian Keefe was retained on April 16 with a career record of 43-160, and the staff around him changed: Patrick Ewing joined as an assistant and Steve Clifford as an advisor on July 5. Keefe's projected five in his third season as the permanent coach is Young, Tre Johnson, Dybantsa, Davis and Alex Sarr. USA TODAY projects 30-52, twelfth in the East, which would be the best record this team has had since 2023.

The swing factor is games played by the two stars, because the roster finally has them. Davis and Young combined for five Wizards appearances last season, and Davis is 33 with a body the whole league has watched since 2012. Sarr had a procedure on a fractured right foot in June and made his preseason debut on October 10, so the projected center is already on a minutes restriction, and Tristan Vukčević is out until at least early November with a hip injury. The injury report as of October 14 otherwise lists only rest days for Davis and Middleton. The opener is Wednesday, October 21, at home against Milwaukee, the same opponent as last year, and this time it is Dybantsa's debut against a Bucks team that no longer has Antetokounmpo.

Charlotte went 44-38, its best season since 2016, finished ninth in the East, beat Miami in overtime in the play-in and then got run out of Orlando 121-90 three nights later. The offense was fifth in the league at 119.4 points per 100 and scored at a 123.2 clip with LaMelo Ball on the floor, which makes what happened next the boldest decision in the division. On June 25 the Hornets agreed to send Ball and Josh Green to Minnesota in a four-team deal, made official July 10, for Naz Reid, an unprotected 2033 first, swaps in 2028, 2029 and 2030, three seconds and the rights to Matteo Spagnolo. Three days later Miles Bridges went to Phoenix with a 2029 first for Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale and a 2033 first. Coby White, acquired from Chicago at the February deadline for Collin Sexton and Ousmane Dieng, re-signed for three years and $74 million, and the draft on June 23 brought Washington Huskies big Hannes Steinbach at No. 14 and Texas Tech guard Christian Anderson Jr. at No. 18. Dennis Schröder came from Cleveland for Tre Mann in the August 20 five-team trade, and the fall was a shell game: Dorian Finney-Smith bought from Houston for cash on July 3, sent to Atlanta on September 22 for Buddy Hield and Ryan Nembhard, Hield flipped to Chicago on the 27th for Rob Dillingham, and Dillingham waived the next day. Brandon Miller's extension was still unsigned as of October 14 with the reporting pointing north of $200 million. Charles Lee's third-season five is White, Kon Knueppel, Miller, Reid and Moussa Diabaté. USA TODAY projects 28-54, thirteenth in the East, and wrote that Charlotte has said as much itself.

The swing factor is the hamstrings, plural. Knueppel averaged 18.5 as a rookie and has not played this preseason after a left hamstring injury in offseason work, with the first week of the regular season set as the re-evaluation point, and Grant Williams is on the same timeline with the right one. White strained a calf in camp and missed the whole preseason too, so the projected backcourt has not shared a floor since April. Miller is the healthy one, back from May shoulder surgery and scoring 18 in the October 11 preseason win over Milwaukee. The roster sat at 16 standard contracts on October 14 with Pat Connaughton's non-guaranteed deal the obvious cut, and the opener is Wednesday, October 21, at Brooklyn, with the home opener against Atlanta two nights later.

The top two come down to what travels better over 82 games, a new superstar or an old core. Antetokounmpo at 31 with Adebayo behind him is the best two-man defense in the division, and if Spoelstra finds a point guard by Thanksgiving the Heat run away with this. We lean Miami because the ceiling is a conference finalist and Atlanta's is a six seed, but the Hawks went 28-15 after the Young trade with a group that is intact and deeper, and that record is not a fluke. Orlando is a clean third whichever way you read it: the five is better than Washington's and Charlotte's and the question is only whether it is on the floor. Washington over Charlotte is the thinnest call on the board, decided by health in both buildings, and goes against the Hornets because Knueppel and White have not played a preseason minute. The order matches USA TODAY's from top to bottom, and it is still a lean, not a law.

Everyone goes on Wednesday the 21st. Atlanta is at Orlando at 7pm Eastern, the first Southeast game of the year before either team has played anyone else. Washington hosts Milwaukee at 7pm for Dybantsa's debut, Charlotte is at Brooklyn at 7:30, and Miami hosts Minnesota at 7:30 on ESPN for Antetokounmpo's first regular-season game in a Heat uniform. Friday the 23rd brings Detroit to Miami, Minnesota to Orlando, Toronto to Washington, and Atlanta to Charlotte for the Hornets' home opener. We will have the Card for all of it.

Next: the Northwest Division. Records and playoff results from last season; projections from USA TODAY's August 26 preseason forecast; projected lineups from USA TODAY team previews dated September 21 to 24, SI's October 13 Heat report and Yahoo's October 13 Southeast preview; injury statuses from the CBS Sports and Covers reports as of October 13 and 14. Every named player was roster-checked on October 14.