The Pacific is the division LeBron James left, and the first thing it does without him is put the Lakers and Warriors on ESPN on Wednesday night, October 21. That is the division in one sentence. The Lakers won 53 games and got swept by Oklahoma City, then replaced LeBron with Walker Kessler and three mid-sized contracts. Phoenix won 45 and lost the play-in game it was supposed to win before taking the eighth seed anyway. Golden State starts the year with Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis both out, the Clippers start it with their owner suspended and Kawhi Leonard in Toronto, and Sacramento starts it with a No. 7 pick running the point. Six division previews in six days, and this is the fifth. The Southwest closes it out tomorrow.

The Lakers went 53-29, won the Pacific, took the fourth seed, and beat Houston in six before Oklahoma City swept them in the second round, the last of it a 115-110 loss at home on May 11. The deadline had been quiet: Luke Kennard came from Atlanta on February 5 for Gabe Vincent and a second. The summer was not. On July 1 the Lakers agreed to a sign-and-trade for Walker Kessler, four years and about $129.5 million, with Utah taking unprotected 2031 and 2033 firsts plus swaps in 2028 and 2030. Two days later Deandre Ayton went to Washington for Jaden Hardy and two seconds. Quentin Grimes signed on July 7 for four years and $60 million, Sandro Mamukelashvili the same day for four and $52 million, Collin Sexton on July 11 for two years and $19.2 million, and Austin Reaves re-signed on July 12 for four years and $180 million. Kevon Looney, Ziaire Williams and Matisse Thybulle came in on minimums in July. Then LeBron James picked Philadelphia on July 24, and Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, Marcus Smart and Kennard all signed elsewhere. Jonathan Kuminga turned down a Lakers sign-and-trade on August 26 and went to Minnesota instead. The draft was Cameron Carr at No. 24, acquired from New York on draft night. JJ Redick's third-season five, per Heavy on October 6, is Luka Doncic, Reaves, Grimes, Jake LaRavia and Kessler, though Redick said on October 12 that nothing was definitive beyond Doncic, Reaves, Kessler and Grimes. USA TODAY projects 48-34, sixth in the West, a five-win drop from a team that lost the best player of his generation and added a 25-year-old rim protector.

The swing factor is the fourth and fifth starters, because the first three are the best trio in the division and nobody knows who plays next to them. Ziaire Williams started the first preseason game, Adou Thiero started the next two, and LaRavia is the projection. The injury report as of October 16 has Sexton with a lower-leg injury and no preseason minutes, his opener in doubt, and Williams with a foot contusion that let him practise fully on Thursday. The roster math is the other deadline: 16 guaranteed contracts and 15 spots, with one cut due by October 19, and the names you keep hearing are Dalton Knecht and Hardy. The Lakers were 2-2 in the preseason going into Friday's finale against Denver, with Reaves scoring 28 in the Las Vegas game that Doncic sat out. Worth knowing: Kessler put up 11 points and nine rebounds in his debut, and the Lakers paid two unprotected firsts for exactly that kind of night, 82 times.

Phoenix went 45-37, second in the Pacific and seventh in the West going into the play-in, then lost the 7-8 game at home to Portland 114-110 on April 14 and had to beat Golden State 111-96 three nights later for the eighth seed. The reward was Oklahoma City, which swept them, the last game a 131-122 loss at home on April 27. The deadline had been a reshuffle: Cole Anthony and Amir Coffey arrived in a three-team deal on February 5 with Nick Richards going to Chicago, and Anthony was waived three weeks later. The summer's big swing came on June 28 and went official July 13: Miles Bridges, a 2029 Charlotte first and a 2027 second for Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale and a 2033 Suns first. The draft was Arizona forward Koa Peat at No. 30, picked up from Dallas in a four-team trade for the No. 47 pick and two seconds. Then the front office paid its own: Collin Gillespie re-signed for four years and $48 million, Jordan Goodwin for three and $19 million, Mark Williams for three and $38 million as a restricted free agent, and Kennard came over from the Lakers for two years and $13 million. Dillon Brooks signed a three-year, $73 million extension on August 5. Haywood Highsmith was waived on August 12. Jordan Ott's second-season five, per Sports Illustrated on October 7, is Jalen Green, Devin Booker, Brooks, Bridges and Oso Ighodaro, with Khaman Maluach the other option at center. USA TODAY projects 44-38, eighth in the West, one win off last year with a different frontcourt.

The swing factor is the center, because the one they paid $38 million is not expected back before February. Williams had surgery on a torn labrum in his left shoulder on September 11, and the job until then belongs to Ighodaro or Maluach, both in their second year. Bridges sprained his right ankle on October 7, sat the next two exhibitions, and the team called it not serious; Kennard hurt a knee on October 14 and was held out of the finale with no long-term concern. The Suns were 1-3 in the preseason going into Friday's game against Utah, with Booker, Brooks and Green resting through most of it. The strange part is the contract clock: Bridges earns $22.8 million this year and is a free agent next summer, so the trade that defined the offseason has one season to justify a first-round pick.

Golden State went 37-45, tenth in the West, won the 9-10 play-in game at the Clippers 126-121 on April 15 behind 35 from Stephen Curry, and lost the eighth-seed game at Phoenix 111-96 two nights later. The season had already turned in January: Jimmy Butler tore his right ACL against Miami on January 19, and at the deadline on February 5 the Warriors sent Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield to Atlanta for Kristaps Porzingis, with Trayce Jackson-Davis going to Toronto for a second. Moses Moody tore his left patellar tendon in Dallas on March 23. Steve Kerr signed a new two-year contract on May 12 and hired Frank Vogel as his top assistant. The draft was Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg at No. 11, signed July 1 for four years and $28.1 million. Porzingis took a two-year, $40 million extension on June 30 with only $3 million of the second year guaranteed. Al Horford re-signed on July 6 for two years and $14 million, Draymond Green on July 30 for one year and $27.7 million, De'Anthony Melton on August 1 for two years and $12.4 million, and Gary Payton II the same day on a minimum. Georges Niang and Brandon Williams came in on minimums in late August, and Quinten Post left for Memphis on July 8 when his offer sheet went unmatched. Kerr's thirteenth-season five, per Yahoo's October 8 Pacific preview, is Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Melton, Lendeborg and Green at center. USA TODAY projects 41-41, ninth in the West, four wins better than last year with two of the three best players unavailable for the opener.

The swing factor is the calendar, because this roster is three different teams depending on the month. Porzingis is out indefinitely after a team statement on October 14 citing a health issue it did not specify, and he missed all of camp. Butler's return is listed as January at the earliest, Moody's as December. Until then it is Curry at 38, Green at 36 and Horford at 40 holding a play-in team together with a rookie at the four. The Warriors were 3-2 in the preseason going into Friday's finale against Portland, and Podziemski's extension window closes on October 19. Call it a lean, not a law: a healthy February version of this team is a top-six seed, and the October version is not.

The Clippers went 42-40, lost the eighth-seed tiebreaker to Portland on conference record, and went out in the 9-10 play-in game at home to Golden State 126-121 on April 15. The deadline had already sold the old core: James Harden went to Cleveland on February 4 for Darius Garland and a second, and the next day Ivica Zubac and Kobe Brown went to Indiana for Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson and two firsts, one of which became the No. 5 pick, Illinois guard Keaton Wagler. Chris Paul went to Toronto the same day. Then the Kawhi Leonard trade: agreed with the Raptors on June 30 and frozen for two and a half months while the league investigated the endorsement deals around his contract. The verdict came on September 2: a $30 million fine, five forfeited first-round picks from 2029 through 2033, a one-year suspension for Steve Ballmer, six months for Lawrence Frank, and a $700,000 fine for Leonard. The trade closed on September 14, with Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, Toronto's 2031 and 2033 firsts, a 2027 swap and two seconds coming back. Around it, Rui Hachimura signed on July 6 for two years and $28 million, John Collins was sign-and-traded to Detroit on July 9, Bradley Beal re-signed on August 13 for two years and $13.2 million, and Max Strus came from Cleveland on August 20. Mathurin's qualifying offer was pulled on August 29 and he signed in New Orleans, Nicolas Batum retired on September 22, and Cam Christie was waived on October 14. Ty Lue's seventh-season five, per Sports Illustrated on October 9, is Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Hachimura and Jackson, with Brook Lopez the alternative at center. USA TODAY projects 31-51, thirteenth in the West, an eleven-win drop for a team that no longer has a reason to chase a seed.

The swing factor is Ingram's right Achilles, because he is the best player the Leonard trade returned and he has not played yet. A partial tear turned up during his May heel surgery, he resumed on-court work this week, and he will miss the opener with a re-evaluation once the season starts. Strus tore his plantar fascia on October 4 and is out at least four weeks from there, Beal has knee inflammation with no timetable, and Jordan Miller is about five months away with a rotator cuff. The Clippers were 2-1 in the preseason as of October 14. Worth knowing: with five first round picks stripped, the two Toronto picks from the Leonard trade are now the most valuable things in the front office's drawer, and the roster is built accordingly.

Sacramento went 22-60, fourteenth in the West, and the number under it is 8-30, where the season stood by mid-January. Zach LaVine played 39 games, Keegan Murray 23 and Domantas Sabonis 19. The deadline brought De'Andre Hunter from Cleveland on February 1 for Dennis Schröder and Keon Ellis, and Hunter played twice before season-ending eye surgery. The lottery on May 10 dropped them from fifth to seventh, and the pick was Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr., followed by UConn forward Alex Karaban at No. 29 after a June 23 trade with Cleveland for the No. 34 pick and a 2032 second, and Houston guard Emanuel Sharp at No. 45. Devin Carter went to Atlanta on June 30 for the rights to Alpha Kaba. DeMar DeRozan was waived on July 6 with $10 million of his $25.7 million stretched over three years, and he signed in Denver in September. Precious Achiuwa re-signed on July 7 for two years and $11.2 million, Ben Simmons signed a non-guaranteed minimum, and Russell Westbrook retired on August 12. The front office is Scott Perry's for a first full offseason, and Doug Christie is coaching the last guaranteed year of his deal with a team option behind it. Christie's five, per Sports Illustrated on October 3, is Acuff, LaVine, Hunter, Murray and Sabonis, with Malik Monk, Simmons and Nique Clifford first off the bench. USA TODAY projects 18-64, last in the West.

The swing factor is games played, because the three biggest contracts gave the Kings 81 appearances between them last year. Monk sat the preseason finale with left ankle soreness he has been managing since camp, Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell were both given two-week re-evaluations on October 13, and Achiuwa is day-to-day with an ankle. The Kings were 0-4 in the preseason going into Friday's finale in San Antonio, and in the October 13 loss to Portland eight rotation players sat. Don't read too much into a winless October against a roster that was resting, but do read the projection: an 18-win team with a rookie point guard is what the forecast sees, and the first ten games will tell you if it is worse than that.

The top is not close on paper, and it is closer than the paper says. The Lakers have the best player in the division and a 48-win projection that already bakes in a slow start at the four and five, and the thing that moves it is whether Kessler and Doncic turn into a pick-and-roll pairing by Thanksgiving. The middle is the argument. We lean Phoenix second because Booker, Green and Brooks are healthy and the only hole is a center spot filled by two second-year players, while Golden State is asking Curry at 38 to carry a play-in team until Butler is back in January. If Porzingis returns in November and Butler by the new year, the Warriors have the better April roster, and this flips. The bottom is where the projections and the calls agree: the Clippers at 31 wins have lost their owner, their best player and five first-round picks in one summer, and the Kings at 18 are projected as the worst team in the league, with a rookie point guard as the reason to watch anyway. Call it a lean, not a law, and the thinnest of the four calls is Phoenix over Golden State.

All five teams open on Wednesday, October 21, which makes it the busiest night in the series. Golden State is at the Lakers at 10pm Eastern on ESPN, the only national window in the division's first week and the first look at Doncic and Kessler against Green and Horford. Sacramento is at the Clippers at 10:30pm, the Intuit Dome's first game with Ballmer suspended and Acuff's regular-season debut, and Phoenix is at Portland at 10pm for Ott's second opener against Damian Lillard's return. Friday the 23rd has all five again: the Clippers at the Lakers, Memphis at Golden State for the Chase Center opener, and Portland at Sacramento for the Kings' home opener. Saturday the 24th brings Golden State to Phoenix for the Suns' first home game, and Sunday the 25th sends the Lakers to Utah and the Clippers to Oklahoma City. We will have the Card for all of it.

Next: the Southwest Division, tomorrow, the last of the six. Records and playoff results from last season via ESPN and the Associated Press; projections from USA TODAY's August 26 preseason forecast; projected lineups from Heavy's October 6 Lakers depth chart and Redick's October 12 comments, Sports Illustrated's October 7 Suns, October 9 Clippers and October 3 Kings reports, and Yahoo's October 8 Pacific preview for the Warriors; injury statuses from the CBS Sports reports and team beat coverage as of October 14 to 16; openers from the August 13 schedule release. Preseason records are as of the morning of October 16, before the finales. Every named player was roster-checked on October 16.