The Northwest opens the whole season: Oklahoma City is at San Antonio on Tuesday night, October 20, a rematch of the conference finals the Thunder led 3-2 and lost in seven. That is the division in one sentence. The Thunder won 64 games and did not win the West, Denver won 54 and went out in the first round to Minnesota, and Minnesota then swapped its frontcourt depth for LaMelo Ball. Portland traded for Ja Morant and got Damian Lillard back from an Achilles, and Utah turned a 22-win tank into the No. 2 pick and Darryn Peterson. Six division previews in six days, and this is the fourth. The Pacific is next.

Oklahoma City went 64-18, took the No. 1 seed in the West, and swept Phoenix and the Lakers without dropping a game. Then San Antonio happened: the Thunder led the conference finals 3-2 and lost Game 7 at home 111-103 on May 30, with Jalen Williams watching the end of it with a left hamstring injury. The summer was about keeping the band together and paying for it. Isaiah Hartenstein re-signed on July 6 for three years and $75 million in new money, Kenrich Williams came back on July 2 for a year and $5 million, and the price of the tax was the bench: Aaron Wiggins went to Atlanta on July 6 for two second-round picks, Isaiah Joe went to Detroit the same day for two more, and on July 19 Lu Dort was sent to Atlanta in a three-team deal with Dallas that returned three seconds. The trade deadline had already brought Jared McCain from Philadelphia on February 4 for a 2026 first and three seconds. The draft was Michigan center Aday Mara at No. 12, guard Bennett Stirtz at No. 16 after a swap with Memphis, and Otega Oweh at No. 41. Cason Wallace's rookie extension was still unsigned as of October 12 with an October 19 deadline and reporting in the range of $25 million a year. Mark Daigneault's seventh-season five is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Wallace, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Hartenstein, and Sam Presti has all but said Wallace starts over Ajay Mitchell. USA TODAY projects 65-17, first in the West, which is one more win than the team that just had the best record in the league.

The swing factor is the wing depth, because the top five is not in doubt. Dort, Wiggins and Joe were rotation pieces on the 2025 title team, and all three are gone for second-round picks. The injury report as of October 14 reads like a preseason: Oweh ruptured his right Achilles on October 13 and had surgery the next day, so the rookie is done for the year, and Holmgren with a quad, Jaylin Williams with a heel, Nikola Topić with his back and Thomas Sorber with his knee were all listed as game-time decisions for the exhibitions. Presti called Jalen Williams healthy entering camp, and that is the sentence that matters. Worth knowing: the Thunder were 1-3 in the preseason as of October 14, and nobody in Oklahoma City is reading anything into it.

Denver went 54-28, finished third in the West, and lost in six to Minnesota in the first round, the last of it a 110-98 loss in Minneapolis on April 30 with Peyton Watson out with a hamstring. The number next to that is 18-5, the record of David Adelman's preferred starting five in the 23 games it managed to play together. The summer traded the depth and kept the five. Jonas Valanciunas was waived on July 8, Tyus Jones re-signed for a year on July 14, Marvin Bagley III signed a one-year minimum on July 15, and on July 26 Denver matched Oklahoma City's two-year, $12 million offer sheet for Spencer Jones. The big one came August 19: a five-team sign-and-trade sent Watson to Cleveland on four years and $88 million and brought back Cleveland's unprotected 2031 first, a 2032 second and Julian Reese, who was waived nine days later. DeMar DeRozan agreed to a one-year minimum on August 21 and signed on September 8, Cam Whitmore and Ryan Nembhard took two-way deals in September, and Lonnie Walker IV was waived on October 12. The draft turned the No. 26 pick into forward Trevon Brazile at No. 35 plus two future seconds, with St. John's wing Bryce Hopkins at No. 49. Nikola Jokić has deferred his extension to next summer, and Julian Strawther's rookie extension deadline is October 19. Adelman's five, in his second full season, is Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Jokić. USA TODAY projects 53-29, fifth in the West, one win off last year with most of the same group.

The swing factor is the bench, and this week it got thinner. Strawther, who averaged 14 points through the first three exhibitions, left Wednesday's game at the Clippers in the third quarter unable to put weight on his left leg, and the MRI was scheduled for Thursday, October 15, with no result announced by the time this went to the editor. Spencer Jones was still limited to non-contact work with a hamstring as of October 13, and DeRozan sat a preseason game for rest. Murray missed the preseason opener for personal reasons and is expected for the opener. The strange part is the calendar: Denver opens Thursday, October 22, in Oklahoma City, so the first real look at a Watson-less rotation comes against the team it was built to beat.

Minnesota went 49-33, took the sixth seed, beat Denver in six, and then lost in six to San Antonio, the last of it a 139-109 Game 6 at home on May 15. The deadline had already started the remodel: Mike Conley went to Chicago in a three-team deal on February 3, and two days later Ayo Dosunmu and Julian Phillips came from the Bulls for Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller and four seconds. Then the summer went all in. Dosunmu agreed to five years and $112 million on June 22, and on June 25 the Wolves agreed to the four-team trade, official July 10, that brought LaMelo Ball and Josh Green from Charlotte and the No. 33 pick, Duke wing Isaiah Evans, from Brooklyn. Out went Naz Reid, an unprotected 2033 first, swaps in 2028, 2029 and 2030, three seconds and the rights to Matteo Spagnolo to Charlotte, and Julius Randle and the No. 28 pick to Brooklyn. Ball has three years left on a five-year, $203.9 million deal. Bones Hyland re-signed on July 3, Jaylen Clark took three years on July 10, Trey Lyles came back from Real Madrid on July 11, Jonathan Kuminga agreed to two years and $12.4 million on August 26 after turning down a Lakers sign-and-trade, and on August 28 Green was flipped to Utah for Cody Williams. Conley signed with Boston, and assistant Micah Nori left on June 23 to coach Portland. Chris Finch's five is Ball, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Kuminga and Rudy Gobert. USA TODAY projects 55-27, third in the West, a six-win jump for a team that traded two of its top seven players for one.

The swing factor is the frontcourt minutes, because Reid and Randle took most of them last year and both are gone. Kuminga is the projected four after missing two preseason games with general soreness, and Lyles and Joan Beringer are the depth behind Gobert. Donte DiVincenzo is out until late in the season with the right Achilles he tore in the first round, and Terrence Shannon Jr. was day-to-day as of October 14. Ball and Edwards together is the best backcourt in the division on talent, and the question you keep hearing is whose ball it is in the last two minutes. Call it a lean, not a law: Ball played 72 games last year, his most in four seasons, and the whole projection rests on him doing it again.

Portland went 42-40, won the play-in at Phoenix 114-110 on April 14 for the seventh seed, and lost in five to San Antonio, the first playoff trip since 2021 ending on April 28. The season had already been upended in October, when Chauncey Billups was arrested in the federal gambling probe and placed on leave; Tiago Splitter finished the year as interim and was not retained. The summer was a new owner and a new coach. The Board of Governors approved the sale from the Paul Allen estate to a group led by Tom Dundon on March 30, and on June 23 the Blazers hired Timberwolves assistant Micah Nori as head coach on a deal with one guaranteed year and two team options. On June 30 Portland acquired Ja Morant from Memphis for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray, with the Grizzlies adding $1 million in cash. Robert Williams III re-signed the same day on three years and $44 million, Branden Carlson came over from Oklahoma City on July 1, Micah Potter was claimed off waivers on July 10, and Jeremy Sochan signed a one-year deal on August 2. Vit Krejci had arrived from Atlanta on February 1 for Duop Reath and two seconds. There was no draft pick in either round. Nori's first-season five is Damian Lillard, Morant, Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan, with Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson first off the bench. USA TODAY projects 40-42, tenth in the West, two wins below the team that just made the playoffs.

The swing factor is the two point guards, because the rest of the roster is the one that won 42. Lillard is back from the April 2025 Achilles and scored 15 points in 19 minutes in the preseason opener, and he was off the injury report as of October 13. Morant has played 79 games over the last three seasons, which is the number Memphis was staring at when it took two role players for him. Shaedon Sharpe tore his meniscus on August 24 and is out about six months, so the wing he was supposed to be is a late-February arrival at best. Worth knowing: Lillard and Holiday are both 36, and Henderson is the one who has to make Nori's first-year math work.

Utah went 22-60, tied with Sacramento for the worst record in the West, and finished 15th on the tiebreaker, a fourth straight year out of the playoffs. The deadline was the pivot: on February 3 the Jazz sent Walter Clayton Jr., Kyle Anderson, Taylor Hendricks, Georges Niang and three first-round picks to Memphis for Jaren Jackson Jr., Jock Landale, John Konchar and Vince Williams Jr., then flipped Landale for Lonzo Ball and picks on February 5, added Chris Boucher from Boston the same day, and waived both. The lottery on May 10 bounced Utah from the fourth-best odds up to No. 2, and on June 23 the pick was Kansas guard Darryn Peterson. The summer cashed out the center. Jusuf Nurkić re-signed on June 29 for two years and $22 million, and on July 1 Walker Kessler went to the Lakers in a sign-and-trade for unprotected 2031 and 2033 Lakers firsts plus swaps in 2028 and 2030. Jaxson Hayes signed the same day for two years and $12 million, Josh Okogie took the mid-level on July 3 for two years and $12 million, Mo Bamba re-signed for two years on July 9, and on August 28 Cody Williams and Konchar went to Minnesota for Josh Green's expiring deal. Keyonte George signed a five-year, $157.5 million extension on September 18. Will Hardy's fifth-season five, with Nurkić hurt, is George, Ace Bailey or Peterson, Lauri Markkanen, Jackson and Hayes. USA TODAY projects 44-38, seventh in the West, and wrote that the tank is complete and the Jazz could ascend.

The swing factor is the center spot, because the other four are set. Nurkić tore the plantar plate in his right second toe in the October 4 preseason opener and gets re-evaluated in about four weeks, which puts the projected starter at a November return at best. Kyle Filipowski has no timeline after offseason back surgery, and Markkanen missed the October 7 exhibition with a sore neck. The strange part is the size of the jump: 22 wins to 44 would be the biggest year-over-year improvement in the division by a mile, and the case for it is a 19-year-old No. 2 pick and a 27-year-old Jackson with an injury history of his own. Don't read too much into the projection; read the first ten games.

The top is not a debate. Oklahoma City returns the best player in the conference and the four starters around him, and the bench it lost is the kind of thing a 64-win team can absorb for three months and worry about in April. The middle is the argument. We lean Denver second because the starting five is the proven unit in the division, but Minnesota beat them in six last spring, and if Ball and Edwards figure out the last two minutes by Thanksgiving, this flips. The bottom is where we split from USA TODAY, which has Utah seventh in the West and Portland tenth. Portland was a playoff team with a healthy Holiday and Avdija and is adding Lillard and Morant to it, while Utah's projection asks a rookie and a center on a four-week foot timeline to double the win total. Call it a lean, not a law, and the thinnest of the four calls is Denver over Minnesota.

Oklahoma City goes first in the whole league, Tuesday, October 20, at San Antonio at 9:30pm Eastern on NBC and Peacock, the conference finals rematch before anyone else has played. Wednesday the 21st has three of the five: Minnesota at Miami at 7:30 on ESPN for Ball's debut against Giannis Antetokounmpo's, Utah at Memphis at 8pm, and Portland hosting Phoenix at 10pm for Lillard's return and Morant's first game in black and red. Denver waits until Thursday, October 22, at Oklahoma City at 9:30 on ESPN, the Thunder home opener and the first division game of the year. Friday the 23rd brings Minnesota to Orlando, Portland to Sacramento, and New Orleans to Utah, and the Pelicans are in Denver on Saturday the 24th. We will have the Card for all of it.

Next: the Pacific Division. Records and playoff results from last season via Basketball-Reference; projections from USA TODAY's August 26 preseason forecast; projected lineups from Sports Illustrated's October 3 Nuggets and October 5 Trail Blazers reports, Yahoo's September 28 Thunder, October 12 Timberwolves and October 15 Jazz previews, and the Deseret News on October 2; injury statuses from the CBS Sports reports and team beat coverage as of October 13 to 15; openers from the August 13 schedule release. Every named player was roster-checked on October 15.