The first game of the whole NBA season is a 3pm tip in Detroit on Tuesday, October 20, and the Pistons will walk out as the team that won 60 games and lost a Game 7 with a 2-0 lead. That is the Central in one sentence: the best regular-season team in the East got beaten by the division rival underneath it, and both of them now have to look over their shoulder at Indiana, which is getting Tyrese Haliburton back. Chicago tore the roster down in February and rebuilt it around the No. 4 pick; Milwaukee traded Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami and is starting over. Six division previews in six days, and this is the second. The Southeast is next.

Detroit went 60-22, took the top seed in the East, and then had the strangest playoff month in the league: down 3-1 to Orlando and came back to win in seven, then up 2-0 on Cleveland and lost in seven. The defense was the second-best in the NBA at 109.7 points allowed per 100, and that is the thing to hold onto. The summer was a reshuffle rather than a rebuild. Isaiah Joe arrived from Oklahoma City for two second-round picks on July 6, John Collins came in on three years and $51 million through a six-team sign-and-trade on July 8, and the same deal sent Isaiah Stewart to Memphis and Caris LeVert to Milwaukee. Tobias Harris left for San Antonio on July 1, Kevin Huerter stayed on three years and $27 million, and the draft was a trade up to No. 17 for Stanford guard Ebuka Okorie on June 24. Then came the paperwork: Ausar Thompson's five-year, $155 million extension on September 22 and Jalen Duren's five-year, $200 million extension on October 1, after he sat out the start of camp waiting for it. J.B. Bickerstaff's third-season five is Cade Cunningham, Joe, Thompson, Collins and Duren. USA TODAY projects 45-37, a fifteen-win drop, which is a lot of respect to lose for a team that kept its best five players.

The swing factor is Duren in May, not Duren in January. He made All-NBA Third Team on 19.5 points a night and then averaged 10.2 in the playoffs, and the front office just paid him anyway. Collins is the other half of the question: Stewart was the defender behind him, and Collins is not that, so a top-two defense has to prove it was the scheme and not the personnel. The injury report as of October 13 is clean, with Cunningham and Duren listed only for preseason rest. Worth knowing before you set expectations: the opener against Boston is on national TV at 3pm Eastern on a Tuesday, and Detroit then goes on the road to Miami, Philadelphia and New York over the next seven days.

Indiana finished 19-63, the worst record in franchise history, with Haliburton missing the entire season after the Achilles he tore in Game 7 of the 2025 Finals. The offense fell to 29th in the league at 110.9 points per 100 without him, which tells you how much of this roster is built around one passer. The front office used the lost year to buy a center: Ivica Zubac and Kobe Brown arrived from the Clippers on February 5 for Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson and two first-round picks. The summer was quieter. Kelly Oubre Jr. signed on two years for nearly $17 million on July 1, Larry Nance Jr. came in on a one-year deal on July 8, and with no picks of their own the Pacers bought No. 38, Purdue guard Braden Smith, from Chicago on June 24. Rick Carlisle's sixth-season five is Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam and Zubac. USA TODAY projects 53-29 and third in the East, the most aggressive jump on its whole board, and it said plainly that the number depends on Haliburton.

The swing factor is the one you already guessed, and the early returns are good. Haliburton made his preseason debut on October 7 after 472 days out, rolled an ankle in that game, sat one, and then scored 24 in the first half at Oklahoma City on October 13. Nobody should read a half of October basketball as a verdict, but it is the opposite of the news you were bracing for. Behind him the depth is the worry: Johnny Furphy is out until at least the new year after tearing his ACL in February, and T.J. McConnell was day to day as of October 10. Call it a lean, not a law: if Haliburton plays 65 games this is a top-four team, and if he plays 40 the roster around him showed you last year what it is.

Cleveland went 52-30, won two Game 7s in a row against Toronto and Detroit, and then got swept by the Knicks in the conference finals, averaging 107.9 points a game across the playoffs. The Darius Garland-for-James Harden trade at the February deadline already remade the backcourt, and the summer finished the job around it. Donovan Mitchell signed a four-year, $273 million extension on July 7, Harden re-signed on three years and $97 million on September 8, and in between the Cavs lost their general manager when Mike Gansey took the Philadelphia job on May 29; Brandon Weems was promoted to replace him on September 18. The depth went out the door: Dean Wade to Philadelphia on four years and $39 million, Keon Ellis to Brooklyn, Larry Nance Jr. to Indiana, and then Max Strus to the Clippers and Dennis Schröder to Charlotte in a five-team trade on August 20 that cost a 2031 first. What came back was Peyton Watson from Denver, signed-and-traded on four years and $88 million. The draft was a trade down from No. 29 to No. 34 for Arkansas guard Meleek Thomas. Kenny Atkinson's third-season five is Harden, Mitchell, Watson, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. USA TODAY projects 44-38, seventh in the East, for a team that just reached the conference finals.

The swing factor is the bench, because the starting five is not the problem. Last season's offense was sixth in the league at 119.2 per 100, and the top five returns with a real wing defender added to it. What is gone is everybody who used to close games when a starter sat: Strus, Wade, Schröder and Ellis all played real minutes, and the replacements are Watson, Mario Hezonja and a second-round rookie. The injury report as of October 11 shows nothing in the starting group. The opener is Thursday, October 22, in Philadelphia against LeBron James, Jaylen Brown and the roster USA TODAY has winning the East, which is a hard way to find out whether the new shape holds.

Chicago went 31-51, missed the play-in for the first time since 2021, and allowed 118.1 points per 100, 22nd in the league. The front office made seven trades at the February deadline, sending out Coby White, Nikola Vučević, Ayo Dosunmu and most of the rotation, then fired itself: Artūras Karnišovas and Marc Eversley were out on April 6, Billy Donovan stepped down on April 21, and Tiago Splitter was hired as head coach on June 16 for his first full-time head-coaching job. The draft delivered North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson at No. 4 and Texas wing Dailyn Swain at No. 15 on June 24. Then the money went out fast: Zach Collins extended for two years and $17 million on June 30, Norman Powell signed for two years and just over $44 million on July 1, and Nic Claxton arrived from Brooklyn in a four-team trade on July 10 with two years left on the four-year, $97 million deal he signed with the Nets, which used up the cap space. Collin Sexton left for the Lakers and Anfernee Simons for Philadelphia, and on September 27 Chicago swapped Rob Dillingham for Buddy Hield. Splitter's projected five is Josh Giddey, Powell, Matas Buzelis, Wilson and Claxton. USA TODAY projects 40-42 and tenth in the East, with a note that this is the sneaky team on its board.

The swing factor is the center position, and it is already in trouble. Claxton tweaked a hamstring around October 4 and was to be re-evaluated before the opener, Collins missed all of camp with a soft-tissue injury and was still on the report on October 13, and Splitter said out loud that the frontcourt is a concern. Buzelis sprained an ankle on October 9 and played two days later, so that one is fine. The deeper question is whether a rookie at the four and a coach in his first season can fix a defense that gave up 3.6 more shot attempts a night than it took. The opener is Wednesday, October 21, at Toronto, and the first home game is not until the 24th.

Milwaukee went 32-50, finished 11th in the East, ending a run of nine straight playoff trips, with Giannis Antetokounmpo playing just 36 games. Doc Rivers stepped down on April 13, Taylor Jenkins was hired on April 30, and then the thing happened: on July 6 the Bucks made official a trade that sent Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to Miami for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, the No. 13 pick, unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a 2030 swap and a 2033 second. That pick became Tennessee forward Nate Ament, two spots after Milwaukee took Arizona guard Brayden Burries at No. 10. On July 8 the Bucks sent Taurean Prince and Gary Harris to Detroit for Caris LeVert's expiring contract and two seconds, and on July 11 they brought back Gary Trent Jr. on four years and $64 million, the one real free-agent spend of the summer. On October 6 they signed Johni Broome and waived John Butler Jr. with the roster still at 21. Jenkins' first-season five is Ryan Rollins, Herro, Jaquez, Kyle Kuzma and Myles Turner. USA TODAY projects 17-65, last in the East, and did not bother writing a sentence about it.

The swing factor is the two rookies, because the veterans are placeholders. Herro is in the final year of his deal at $33 million and the front office has said it hopes to extend him, which is the only decision on this roster with a long clock on it. Ament sprained his left ankle on October 7 and was out on the 11th, with Jenkins calling the imaging not very concerning and the opener the target. The defense was 27th last season at 119.3 per 100 with Antetokounmpo on the floor for 36 games, so there is no version of this where the number improves by subtraction. The opener is Wednesday, October 21, at Washington, and Chicago comes to Fiserv Forum on Friday the 23rd for the first home game.

The top two are closer than the records were. Indiana at full strength has the better offense and the deeper guard rotation, and if Haliburton gets to April without a scare the Pacers could take the division outright. We lean Detroit because the regular season rewards the team that shows up 82 times, and the Pistons' defense did that last year with the same five it has now. Cleveland is the clear third, and the only one of the five where a bench injury moves the projection more than a starter's would. Chicago's range runs from the play-in to the lottery and is decided by how many games Claxton and Collins play. Milwaukee's season is about Ament, Burries and the picks it owns, and the record will look like the one USA TODAY printed.

Detroit goes first, Tuesday the 20th at home against Boston, a 3pm Eastern tip on NBC that is also the first game of the NBA season. Wednesday the 21st is the busy day: Chicago is at Toronto, Indiana is at New Orleans for Haliburton's first regular-season game in sixteen months, and Milwaukee is at Washington for its first opener without Antetokounmpo on the roster since 2013. Cleveland waits until Thursday the 22nd and opens in Philadelphia on ESPN. By Friday night every team in the division has played, and the Bulls and Bucks meet in Milwaukee on the 23rd in the first Central game of the year. We will have the Card for all of it.

Next: the Southeast Division. Records and playoff results from last season; projections from USA TODAY's August 26 preseason forecast; projected lineups from USA TODAY and NBA.com team previews dated September 22 to 25; injury statuses from the CBS Sports and Covers reports as of October 13. Every named player was roster-checked on October 14.