The season opens Tuesday, October 20, at Madison Square Garden, and the first thing the Knicks do as champions is raise a banner in front of LeBron James, Jaylen Brown and Joel Embiid. That is the Atlantic in one sentence. New York ended a 53-year drought in June; Philadelphia spent July building the roster most likely to end the party; Boston broke up the Tatum-Brown pairing after nine seasons; Toronto waited two and a half months for a Kawhi Leonard trade to clear the league office; and Brooklyn is still a year or two from being in the conversation. Six division previews in six days, one a day through Monday. We start with the one where two teams could win the East.

Philadelphia went 45-37 last season, slipped in as the seventh seed, came back from 3-1 down to knock Boston out of the first round, and then got swept by the Knicks while scoring 106.3 points per 100 possessions. The front office response was to fire Daryl Morey in May, hire Mike Gansey from Cleveland two weeks later, trade Paul George and picks to Boston for Jaylen Brown on July 1, and sign LeBron James away from the Lakers on July 24. Anfernee Simons, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Dean Wade came in behind them. USA TODAY projects 62-20, the best mark in the East, and nobody in the division is close on paper.

The swing factor is Embiid, same as it has been for three years. He has played 96 of a possible 246 games since 2023, and the projected starting five of Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Brown, James and Embiid only works if the big man is on the floor in May. The depth behind him is already thin: Ariel Hukporti ruptured an Achilles on October 5 and is out for the season, and Adem Bona has not practised in camp with a foot injury. Nick Nurse's fourth season starts with the deepest wing rotation in the league and a centre position held together with tape.

The Knicks won 53 games, went 16-3 in the playoffs and beat the Spurs for the title, and their offence got better when it mattered: 118.7 points per 100 in the regular season, 119.9 in the postseason, the only team in the league to score more efficiently in the playoffs. OG Anunoby's 67.2 percent effective field goal rate in those 19 games is the highest in playoff history for anyone with 150 attempts. The entire starting five returns under Mike Brown, and the offseason was about keeping it: Landry Shamet on four years, Jose Alvarado and Mohamed Diawara on new deals, Jordan Clarkson back on a minimum. USA TODAY projects 56-26.

The swing factor is the centre spot behind Karl-Anthony Towns. James Dolan said the team would not cross the second apron, so Mitchell Robinson walked to Boston on three years and $47.4 million and Andre Drummond is the replacement. That is a defensive step down at the rim, and it shows up most against the teams that just added size. Worth knowing before opening night: Boston comes to the Garden on Friday the 23rd for the first NBA game ever streamed on Prime Video, so the Knicks see both of the Atlantic's other contenders inside their first four days.

Boston won 56 games with Jayson Tatum sidelined until March, which tells you what Jaylen Brown's 28.7 points a night were worth, and then lost a 3-1 lead to Philadelphia. Brad Stevens answered by trading Brown to the Sixers for Paul George, two firsts (a 2028 pick that can convert to a swap and Philadelphia's unprotected 2031) and two seconds. George is 36, carries a $54.1 million salary, and served a 25-game suspension late last season; he also shot 22 of 40 from three against Boston in the first round, so the fit on paper is real. Mike Conley signed, Mitchell Robinson signed, Chris Cenac Jr. and Dillon Mitchell were drafted, and Joe Mazzulla's projected five is Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, George, Tatum and Neemias Queta.

The swing factor is Tatum, and the news is good. He came back in March about sixteen months after the Achilles tear, said he played at roughly 80 percent down the stretch, and has had no restrictions in camp this fall. Whether Boston caps his games is still open. USA TODAY projects 46-36, a ten-win drop, and that feels about right for a team replacing a 29-year-old All-NBA wing with a 36-year-old one. Call it a lean, not a law: a healthy Tatum with a real centre behind him has beaten better rosters than this before.

Toronto agreed to the Kawhi Leonard deal with the Clippers on June 30 and could not finalise it until September 14, because the league spent the summer investigating the Clippers' cap circumvention around Leonard's contract. The price was Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a 2027 swap and two seconds. What Darko Rajaković gets is a starting five of Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Leonard, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl, built around a defence that already allowed 112.1 points per 100 last season, tied for fifth in the league, before adding one of the best wing defenders of his generation.

The swing factor is the bench, which is young. Jamal Shead, Ja'Kobe Walter, Collin Murray-Boyles and rookie Allen Graves are the depth, and if Leonard or Barnes misses time there is not much behind them. Last season's 46-36 ended in a seven-game first-round loss to Cleveland; USA TODAY projects 44-38 this time, which reads as a market that does not trust Leonard's availability yet. Ten of the first fifteen games are on the road, starting Wednesday the 21st at home against Chicago and then out the door.

Brooklyn finished 20-62 and shot 34 percent from three, tied for the worst mark in the league. The summer was a four-team trade on July 10 that sent Nic Claxton to Chicago and brought back Julius Randle from Minnesota, plus the sixth pick, Louisville guard Mikel Brown Jr., and free agents Keon Ellis and Moritz Wagner. Michael Porter Jr. is the one proven scorer, and he kept his efficiency last year on a much bigger usage load, which is the most encouraging number on the roster.

The swing factor is the rookie, and he is already hurt: Brown Jr. has been out since September 30 with an ankle and had not been cleared for contact as of the team's last update. Jordi Fernández's projected five without him leans on Egor Dëmin, Porter, Randle and Day'Ron Sharpe, with Noah Clowney and Danny Wolf behind. USA TODAY projects 20-62 again. The schedule does not help: sixteen back-to-backs, the most the league allows, and the opening ten games run through Cleveland, Indiana, Boston and the Knicks. The home opener is Wednesday the 21st against Charlotte.

The top two are a coin flip with a thumb on it. Philadelphia has the better roster and the worse injury history; New York has the continuity, the coach who just won it, and the better odds of being whole in April. We lean Philadelphia for the division because the regular season rewards talent and the Sixers have more of it, and we would not be surprised to print the reverse in the playoff bracket. Boston is the clear third, and the only one of the five where a single healthy season from one player moves the whole projection. Toronto could finish anywhere from third to sixth in the East depending on how many games Leonard plays. Brooklyn's season is about Dëmin, Brown Jr. and Wolf, and the record will look like last year's.

Opening night, Tuesday the 20th, is Philadelphia at the Garden, 7pm ET on NBC and Peacock, and it answers the first question of the season in one game: who guards LeBron and Brown when Anunoby can only take one. Boston opens the same afternoon against Detroit, a 3pm tip, then goes to New York on Friday. Toronto and Brooklyn open at home on Wednesday the 21st, against Chicago and Charlotte. By Saturday morning every team in this division has played, and the Celtics-Knicks game will already have told you whether Boston's new shape holds up against the champions. We will have the Card for all of it.

Next: the Central Division, tomorrow. Records and playoff results from last season; projections from USA TODAY's August 26 preseason forecast; injury statuses as of October 12. Every named player was roster-checked on October 13.