Two games Monday night. Portland travels to Barclays Center for what looks like a double-digit underdog spot on paper, but the Fire have earned enough credibility over their first six games to make the 12.5-point spread worth questioning. Then Connecticut heads to Chase Center, where a 1-6 Sun team is being asked to keep Golden State within 11.5 points against a Valkyries squad that has been one of the league's more efficient defensive operations. Both games have legitimate reasons to look beyond the favorite. Here's what to watch.

Portland Fire @ New York Liberty | 8:00pm ET | Prime Video, WWOR-TV, Barclays Center

The most important piece of context heading into Monday night is that Sabrina Ionescu has returned from her ankle injury, playing her first meaningful minutes since early in the month. She is still finding her rhythm, and the version of Ionescu that is two games removed from a multi-week absence is a different player than the one who had the Liberty ranked among the preseason championship favorites. The return matters, and the Liberty are a legitimately better team with her on the floor. But the 12.5-point spread in a game against a 3-3 Portland team that just beat Toronto 99-80 is asking a lot from a Barclays Center crowd that has watched the Liberty lose two consecutive home games.

Those two losses are the relevant data point. New York fell to the Golden State Valkyries and then lost to Dallas 91-76 at home, a result that puts the Liberty at 3-3 and sitting third in the Eastern Conference standings. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones have been individually productive throughout the losing stretch, and Satou Sabally is still ramping up after a delayed season debut. The organizational problem for New York has not been talent, it has been consistency, and the rotation uncertainty that comes with reintegrating multiple returning players simultaneously is exactly the kind of instability that makes 12.5-point spreads against legitimate opponents look vulnerable.

Portland is more capable than a double-digit underdog profile suggests. Bridget Carleton leads the Fire at 16.5 points per game with the efficiency that veteran players at her stage of career typically provide. Carla Leite has been a revelation as a secondary creator, averaging 15 points and 4.8 assists per game while giving Portland a second ball-handler capable of generating offense from non-Carleton possessions. Sug Sutton adds 11.3 points and 5.7 assists per game, and the Fire shot 50% from the field and 11-of-23 from three in the Toronto win. This is a team that can score in bunches, and the Liberty's defense is allowing 42.7% from the field, eighth in the league but not impenetrable against a Portland offense with multiple shooting threats.

The historical context adds another layer. The underdogs have covered the spread in four of the Liberty's last five games. New York has failed to cover in six of their last seven home games against Western Conference opponents. Each of those last six has gone under the total as well.

Portland wins if Carleton and Leite sustain the offensive rhythm from the Toronto win, the Fire's three-point shooting maintains the 47.8% rate it produced last game, and the Liberty's rotation uncertainty with Ionescu finding her footing means New York cannot consistently execute the defensive assignments that limiting Portland requires.

New York wins if Ionescu's return immediately restores the facilitation and floor-spacing that the Liberty have been missing since her absence, Stewart and Jones assert the frontcourt dominance that makes New York's half-court offense genuinely difficult to guard, and the Barclays crowd responds to consecutive home losses with the sustained intensity that this building is capable of.

Prediction: New York -12.5. The spread is large enough that the smart play may be on the Portland side. Computer models project New York at approximately 78% win probability, which implies a line closer to 8 or 9 points than 12.5. Ionescu's return changes this team's ceiling, but a player two games back from a multi-week absence is not the same as a player at full rhythm. Liberty win; Fire cover.

Connecticut Sun @ Golden State Valkyries | 10:00pm ET | WNBA League Pass, KPIX+

Golden State is 3-2 and carrying the credibility of their opening stretch into what should be a comfortable home game. The Valkyries lost at Indiana 90-82 in their last contest, a result that snapped a three-game winning streak, and Monday night at Chase Center is the kind of bounce-back spot where Golden State's home-court advantage and defensive capabilities should reassert themselves. Veronica Burton has been the team's offensive engine at 15.0 points and 6.4 assists per game, providing the creation that makes the Valkyries' system function at both ends. Gabby Williams continues her defensive player of the year form, averaging 2.0 steals per game and disrupting ball movement in the ways that have defined Golden State's identity since the franchise's opening night. Kiah Stokes anchors the interior with 2.0 blocks per game, the only player in the league with a 5-block game this season, and Janelle Salaun gives the Valkyries a legitimate three-point threat at 2.4 makes per game.

Connecticut is 1-6 and coming off a 77-59 loss to Seattle, the Sun's worst offensive performance of the season. Before that loss, Connecticut had beaten Seattle 80-78 in a result that briefly suggested the Sunset Season might still have competitive moments worth investing in. The Sun's leading scorer is Brittney Griner at 16.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, providing exactly the kind of interior production that has made her one of the sport's most recognizable talents. Aneesah Morrow adds 11.3 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, giving Connecticut a second double-double threat. Saniya Rivers dishes 4.4 assists per game and gives the Sun's offense its primary secondary creator. The problem is structural: Connecticut is allowing 49.0% from the field to opponents, the worst defensive figure in the league, and their offense ranks among the bottom three in the WNBA in effective field goal percentage. This is a team that has good individual players and very little defensive coherence.

The last time these teams played, Golden State won 74-57. The Valkyries have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with losing records. The total sitting at 161.5 reflects the expectation that Connecticut's offense against Golden State's defense will be a constrained, halfcourt game rather than the kind of open-court shootout that inflates totals.

Connecticut wins if Griner dominates the interior and generates the foul trouble on Golden State's frontcourt defenders that forces the Valkyries into uncomfortable defensive rotations, Rivers facilitates at the level her assist average suggests she can, and the Sun carry the bounce-back energy from the close Seattle win into a building where they beat these same Valkyries 80-78 on their last visit.

Golden State wins if Williams disrupts Connecticut's initiation and forces turnovers at the rate that has made her the league's most impactful defensive perimeter player, Burton operates at her 15-point, 6-assist standard and keeps Golden State's offense above 80 points, and Chase Center delivers the home energy that has made this building one of the West Coast's better environments in the Valkyries' short franchise history.

Prediction: Golden State -11.5. The 88% win probability that the moneyline implies is the right framing for a game between a 3-2 Valkyries team at home and a 1-6 Sun team on the road. The one caveat is that Golden State has failed to cover in three of their last four home games, and the Sun have covered three of their last four. Computer models project Golden State at approximately 84% win probability. The talent gap is real and the defensive mismatch is significant. Valkyries win; Sun cover.

The Fire-Liberty game is Monday's most interesting handicapping puzzle: a 12.5-point spread against a 3-3 opponent for a team that has lost two straight home games and is still integrating its starting point guard from an ankle injury is a number that the market typically does not offer without a reason to be skeptical. Ionescu's return changes New York's ceiling but not their floor. And Connecticut-Golden State is the Sunset Season's clearest mismatch of the first three weeks, but the Sun have shown twice this month that they can beat a team in a building where the market says they have no business winning.