Three games Sunday afternoon. Atlanta hosts Phoenix in what has become a one-sided series over the past three meetings, with the Dream holding a commanding advantage over a Mercury team that just lost at home to the Sparks. The Wings take their full roster to Brooklyn as slight road favorites over a Liberty team still waiting on Ionescu, which says everything about how much Ogunbowale's return has changed the market's view of Dallas. And Seattle closes the afternoon slate at home against Washington in a matchup that pits a 2-4 team needing to protect its home floor against a Mystics squad that pushed Indiana to double overtime last week. Here's what to watch.

Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream | 3:00pm ET | ION, Peachtree TV

Atlanta is 3-1 and playing with the kind of confidence that comes from an 86-69 blowout of Dallas on Friday, a performance that showed what the Dream look like when their defense is engaged and their offense is moving the ball ahead of the shot clock. Rhyne Howard had another two-way performance, Allisha Gray continued her reliable scoring, and Angel Reese controlled the glass in the ways that have defined every Atlanta win this season. The Dream are 6-4 against Phoenix in their last 10 meetings, including wins in each of the last three matchups. The most recent head-to-head ended 74-66 in Atlanta's favor, and nothing about the Mercury's current form suggests that pattern is about to change.

Phoenix is 2-4 and coming off a 97-88 home loss to the Sparks on Thursday, a result that complicated whatever momentum the Mercury had built from their opening-night upset of Las Vegas. Alyssa Thomas remains the structural anchor: her ability to control pace, generate assists from the high post, and anchor the defensive scheme keeps Phoenix competitive even when the perimeter shooting is not there. Kahleah Copper needs to be more consistent than she has been in recent games, and the Mercury's perimeter depth is thin enough that when Thomas is the primary creator and Copper is cold, the offense stalls in halfcourt sets against good defensive teams. Atlanta is a good defensive team.

The spread is 5.5 points in Atlanta's favor, and the total sits at 167.5, a number that reflects two teams with legitimate defensive capabilities. Atlanta's home building has been one of the more difficult road environments in the East through the first two weeks, and the Dream's 3-1 record includes wins over Minnesota, Dallas, and Washington, with the lone loss coming against Las Vegas. Phoenix's 2-4 record includes the Aces upset and not much else to feel good about.

Phoenix wins if Thomas dominates the pace on both ends and limits the transition opportunities that Atlanta's defense generates, Copper produces the perimeter burst that makes the Mercury's halfcourt sets unpredictable, and the Mercury bring the defensive intensity from the Aces upset rather than the passive performance from Thursday's loss to the Sparks.

Atlanta wins if Howard and Gray replicate Friday's two-way output and the Dream's defensive pressure forces Thomas into a lower-volume game than she needs to keep Phoenix competitive, Reese controls the glass and generates the second-chance points that have been Atlanta's most reliable source of additional offense, and the home crowd at Gateway Center Arena gives the Dream the energy that has made State Farm Arena one of the harder buildings to win in this month.

Prediction: Atlanta -5.5. The Dream have beaten Phoenix in three straight meetings, are at home, and are coming off one of their most complete performances of the season. Computer models project Atlanta at approximately 69% win probability, consistent with the moneyline. Phoenix has the talent to keep this under six points, and Thomas rarely allows blowouts. Dream win; Mercury cover.

Dallas Wings @ New York Liberty | 3:30pm ET | Prime Video, WWOR-TV

The line is the story. Dallas is a 1.5-point road favorite over a New York Liberty team sitting at 3-2 in Barclays Center, and that number is the market's acknowledgment that the Wings with Ogunbowale, Bueckers, and Fudd healthy and operating together are a genuinely difficult opponent in any environment. Dallas lost to Atlanta on Friday, which drops them to 3-3, but the loss came on the road against the better team and does not change the structural reality of what this offense is capable of when all three primary options are available.

New York is 3-2 and still operating without Sabrina Ionescu, whose ankle injury has kept the Liberty's most important player off the floor since early in the month. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones have been productive and consistent, the ball movement that defined New York's 25-assist nights is still present in stretches, and the defensive effort has been competitive. But the Liberty without Ionescu are a different team than the one the market priced as the championship favorite in the preseason. The floor-spacing, the creation off the dribble, the ability to draw defensive attention that opens everyone else's catches and cuts is Ionescu's specific contribution, and her absence is the reason Dallas is favored in Brooklyn.

The matchup at the guard level is what makes this game genuinely difficult to predict. Ogunbowale against New York's perimeter defenders is the most important individual battle on the floor. If she gets comfortable moving off the ball and creating in the mid-range areas that the Liberty's scheme has left open without Ionescu, Dallas has the offensive efficiency to win on the road against a team this talented. If the Liberty's defensive rotations, led by Stewart's two-way presence and Sabally's length, can limit Ogunbowale's catch-and-shoot opportunities, New York's offense is good enough to win ugly.

Dallas wins if Ogunbowale creates efficiently in the mid-range and off-ball situations that her profile demands, Bueckers facilitates at the level that has made her one of the more effective second-year players in the league, and the Wings' pace-based attack generates enough early transition looks to prevent the Liberty from settling into the halfcourt defensive scheme that has been their most effective mode without Ionescu.

New York wins if Stewart and Jones impose the frontcourt dominance that their talent demands, the Liberty's ball movement generates the perimeter looks that the defense collapses to take away, and Barclays Center provides the home energy that has been a consistent factor in New York's wins this season.

Prediction: Dallas -1.5. The market is right to make this close, and a case exists on both sides. Dallas with a healthy roster is a better team than its record suggests, and the road favorite status in a national window at Barclays reflects genuine confidence in the Wings' three-guard offensive ceiling. Computer models project Dallas at approximately 56% win probability, consistent with the -1.5 line. Ionescu's absence remains the deciding factor. Wings win and cover.

Washington Mystics @ Seattle Storm | 6:00pm ET | MNMT, Victory+

Seattle is 2-4 and urgently needs to protect its home floor. The Storm's losses have come in a variety of ways, with Ezi Magbegor's foot injury creating the interior defensive gap that opponents have consistently exploited, and the record reflects a team that is younger than the schedule has been willing to accommodate so far. Sunday against Washington is the kind of game where the Storm need to assert themselves and start building the winning habits that a young team requires.

Washington is 2-2 and arrives with a genuine reputation after Sonia Citron's 30-point performance helped the Mystics push Indiana to double overtime two weeks ago. That game revealed something real about this Washington team: Citron is legitimately a scoring threat against any defense in the league, Kiki Irafen provides the interior rebounding and scoring that gives the Mystics a credible frontcourt presence, and the team's youth movement is developing faster than preseason projections assumed. The Mystics are not a team Seattle should overlook, and the 2-2 record provides genuine credibility.

The game within the game is Citron against Seattle's perimeter defense, which has been vulnerable to penetration and pull-up opportunities throughout the early season without Magbegor anchoring the paint. If Citron can operate in the mid-range areas she has been exploiting all season and force Seattle's interior defenders to help early, the driving lanes that create Irafen's opportunities open up. The Storm's best counter is Flau'jae Johnson's scoring and Dominique Malonga's improving interior work, and home court is the structural advantage they need to capitalize on.

Washington wins if Citron produces another high-scoring performance at the level she showed against Indiana, Irafen wins the rebounding battle against Seattle's injury-depleted frontcourt, and the Mystics execute with the discipline that a road game against a frustrated home team requires in the closing minutes.

Seattle wins if Johnson produces at the offensive level that has made her the Storm's most consistent scorer through the early stretch and Climate Pledge Arena delivers the home energy that has been present in the Storm's three home games (one win).

Prediction: Seattle -3.5. The Storm are at home, they need this game more than Washington does, and the specific interior matchup advantage that Malonga creates against a Mystics frontcourt without elite athleticism is real. Computer models project Seattle at approximately 63% win probability. Washington is capable of pulling off a road upset, and Citron is the individual player most likely to make that happen. Mystics win and cover.

The Wings-Liberty game is the most market-interesting matchup on Sunday's slate, because a road favorite in Barclays Center is a statement the market rarely makes, and whether Dallas can back it up tells us where this team is heading now that the full roster is healthy. Atlanta-Phoenix is the most structurally predictable, with the Dream's home-court advantage and head-to-head dominance both pointing in the same direction. And Seattle-Washington closes the afternoon with the most individual intrigue: Citron against a Storm defense that has struggled to contain ball-dominant guards, in a building that has not lived up to its home-court potential this season.