Three games Thursday. The New York Liberty host the Golden State Valkyries in the East's premier early-season showcase at Barclays Center. Toronto heads to Minneapolis coming off back-to-back wins over Los Angeles and Phoenix, a stretch that has quietly made the Tempo one of the league's most interesting teams, with a Minnesota squad missing three frontcourt players waiting for them. And the Sparks travel to Phoenix for a matchup between two teams below .500 with a lot to sort out before June. Here's what to watch.

Golden State Valkyries @ New York Liberty | 8:00pm ET | Barclays Center

New York is 3-1 and operating at a level that justifies the championship market's confidence. The Liberty lead the WNBA in assists at 25.0 per game, a number that reflects how thoroughly Chris DeMarco's ball-movement system has taken hold. They allow 87.0 points per game, rank seventh in opponent field goal percentage, and are forcing 14.3 turnovers per night. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are the frontcourt anchor that makes all of it possible. Barclays Center has been the setting for three of those four results, and the crowd has been consistently engaged in a way that road teams consistently cite as a factor.

Golden State is 2-1, but the record doesn't fully capture where this team is. The Valkyries won their opener over Seattle convincingly, then shot 29.3% from the field in a 69-63 loss to Chicago, a performance the market has correctly identified as a cold night more than a structural collapse. Averaging 83.0 points per game, they are a disciplined, defensively-oriented team built around Gabby Williams's perimeter disruption, Tiffany Hayes's veteran scoring, and Veronica Burton's playmaking. Williams was the league's preseason consensus for defensive player of the year and she has been exactly that in the early going. The Valkyries' best path against New York is disrupting the initial ball movement that generates the Liberty's 25 assists per game. If Williams can pressure the ball at the point of initiation, the Liberty's rhythm gets harder to establish.

The Valkyries' 29.3% shooting night against Chicago is the relevant data point heading into Thursday. That number suggests a cold-shooting variance game rather than a team that cannot score against good defenses. New York, for all its strengths, allows 43.5% from the field to opponents, which is not a suffocating defensive number. Golden State can score enough to compete if the shooting returns to league-average levels.

Golden State wins if Williams disrupts New York's ball movement before the Liberty's assist opportunities develop, Hayes and Burton produce at the rates their experience demands rather than repeating the cold-shooting outlier from Wednesday, and the Valkyries' defensive execution holds New York under 85 points in the way that Golden State's scheme is designed to function.

New York wins if the Liberty's ball movement generates the open looks that 25.0 assists per game suggests, Stewart and Jones impose frontcourt dominance that the Valkyries' interior cannot consistently match, and Barclays Center generates the home energy that has been a factor in every New York win this season.

Prediction: New York -6.5. The Liberty are the better team at home with the league's best ball-movement system. Golden State's 29.3% shooting night clouds the picture, but the spread reflects the talent gap accurately. Computer models project New York at approximately 72% win probability. The Valkyries will compete, as they always do, but the Liberty's depth and home floor are too much. Liberty win and cover.

Toronto Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx | 8:00pm ET | WNBA League Pass, Victory+, TSN

This is the most tactically interesting game on Thursday's slate, and the injury reports make it genuinely difficult to read. Minnesota is missing three frontcourt players: Napheesa Collier (ankle surgery, expected back in June), Dorka Juhasz, and Emma Cechova (knee). The Lynx's interior has been reconstructed around Natasha Howard, who has responded with two of the best performances of her career. She scored 17 and 26 points in the last two games and is leading the WNBA with 14.0 points in the paint per contest. Howard is catching a break against a Toronto team with its own frontcourt absences, with Temi Fagbenle, Nyara Sabally, and Isabelle Harrison all unavailable.

The matching injury situations make this a game that gets decided at the guard level, which puts Marina Mabrey at the center of everything. Mabrey has scored 26, 27, and 30 points in three of her first five games, ranks fifth in the WNBA in usage among qualified players, and is taking 20 field goal attempts on nights she avoids foul trouble. Toronto beat Phoenix 98-90 on Tuesday in a performance that further established this team as a genuine early-season presence. The Tempo are 3-2 with a 2-1 road record and have beaten Los Angeles twice and now Phoenix in a single week. Back-to-back road wins over teams the market expected to beat them is not noise.

Minnesota is 2-2 and waiting for Collier to return while a rotation built around Howard and Kayla McBride's perimeter shooting attempts to hold the record together. The Lynx are third in the league in field goal percentage at 50.6%, which suggests the offense has found ways to function without Collier despite the frontcourt losses. McBride's shooting is the variable that most changes Minnesota's offensive ceiling. When she's making threes, the Lynx's spacing allows Howard to operate without double coverage. Toronto's defensive weakness is the exact point Minnesota's offense targets: the Tempo have allowed a league-worst 46.4 points in the paint, including 52 against Phoenix on Tuesday.

Toronto wins if Mabrey produces at her recent high-usage level and generates the perimeter scoring that keeps the Tempo ahead of Howard's interior presence, Toronto's transition offense prevents Minnesota from setting its halfcourt defensive scheme, and the Tempo carry the momentum of back-to-back wins over Los Angeles and Phoenix into a road environment where they have already proven capable.

Minnesota wins if Howard dominates the interior against Toronto's depleted frontcourt for the third consecutive game, McBride shoots efficiently enough from three to open the floor for Howard's post work, and Target Center gives the Lynx the home energy that has been a consistent factor in Minnesota's best performances even without their best player.

Prediction: Minnesota -6.5. The spread is large given how competitive Toronto has been on the road, but Minnesota at home with Howard in this form against a Tempo team that just allowed 52 points in the paint is the right framing. Computer models project Minnesota at approximately 71% win probability, consistent with the -278 moneyline. Although Howard's interior dominance against Toronto's depleted frontcourt will be a factor, Sykes & Mabrey will make up the difference to help the Tempo cover and win.

Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury | 10:00pm ET | WNBA League Pass

Both teams arrive at Mortgage Matchup Center below .500 and with enough talent to be better than their records suggest. The Sparks are 1-3, with their lone win coming against an expansion team, and the defensive breakdowns that allowed 96 points per game in the first week have not fully resolved. Kelsey Plum has been individually productive throughout the early season, averaging over 20 points per game, but the Sparks' inability to defend at league-average levels has cost them in close games. Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby give Los Angeles interior toughness and veteran experience that the record doesn't reflect, and Thursday represents the kind of road game against a comparable opponent where the Sparks should be competing at their ceiling.

Phoenix is 2-3 and coming off Tuesday's home loss to Toronto, a 98-90 result that snapped a brief run of competitive play for the Mercury. Alyssa Thomas remains the engine, averaging 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game last season, and her early-season form has been consistent with that profile. Kahleah Copper provides the burst scoring that gives Phoenix a legitimate secondary offensive option, and the Mercury's home court at Mortgage Matchup Center has been a genuine advantage when the defense is organized. The 2-3 record is a complicated mix of the opening-night upset of Las Vegas and four games against quality competition since.

The game within the game is Plum against Phoenix's perimeter defense, with Copper as the primary cover. Plum's movement off the ball and her ability to create from pull-up situations is the specific challenge that Phoenix's scheme has struggled to handle against ball-dominant guards this season. If Plum can dictate possessions from the perimeter and force Thomas into reactive defensive positioning, Los Angeles has enough offensive firepower to win. If Thomas controls pace and limits the open transition looks that give the Sparks their easiest baskets, Phoenix's home court advantage should be decisive.

Los Angeles wins if Plum operates at the 20-plus point level that her recent form has established, Ogwumike controls the glass and prevents Thomas from generating the second-chance opportunities that make the Mercury's halfcourt offense most dangerous, and the Sparks execute the defensive structure that their roster is capable of but has only shown in fragments this season.

Phoenix wins if Thomas controls the game's tempo from the opening possession, Copper connects from the perimeter with the efficiency that defined her best early-season performances, and Mortgage Matchup Center gives the Mercury the home advantage that makes Phoenix legitimately difficult to beat on nights when the defensive execution is present.

Prediction: Phoenix -3. Two teams with matching urgency, but Phoenix has the home court and Thomas's consistent floor-raising presence. Computer models project Phoenix at approximately 61% win probability, a modest edge that reflects the genuine parity between these rosters. Los Angeles is more capable than 1-3 suggests, and Plum is the most individually dangerous player in this game. The Mercury at home is still the right side of a three-point spread. Mercury win and cover.

The Liberty-Valkyries game tells us the most about the league's early pecking order. New York is the championship favorite and Barclays is where they have been at their best, and Golden State's cold-shooting night against Chicago makes Thursday the first real read on who the Valkyries actually are. The Tempo-Lynx game is Thursday's most tactically rich matchup, with Mabrey's scoring against Howard's interior emergence and both teams patched together with injury-depleted frontcourts in a building where Minnesota has been formidable when the crowd is involved. Sparks-Mercury closes the night as the early standings' most important game for two teams trying to establish whether their records are a sample-size problem or a real reflection of where they are.