Preview | May 14, 2026
Two games Thursday night. Minnesota travels to Dallas in a matchup that is the most interesting early-season storyline nobody is fully talking about yet — the Lynx are 0-2 and trying to stay afloat before Napheesa Collier returns in June, and they're walking into a building where Dallas just beat Indiana. The New York Liberty continue their West Coast road trip in Portland, looking for revenge against the team who hit a buzzer-beater against them.
The Lynx Need a Win
Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings | 8:00pm ET | Victory+, KFAA
Minnesota is 0-2 and the math is already starting to feel uncomfortable. Napheesa Collier is not expected back until sometime in June, which means the Lynx could be approaching 15 games into the season before their best player touches the floor. Every loss in this window makes the climb steeper once she returns. Tuesday's road game in Phoenix was the kind of result that stings not because of execution but because the margin was never in Minnesota's favor — the Mercury are a legitimate defensive team, and the Lynx's halfcourt offense remains unresolved without Collier anchoring the system.
Dallas is 1-1 after Saturday's landmark win over Indiana and Tuesday's trip to Atlanta, where the Dream's depth and Angel Reese's interior dominance decided the outcome. The Wings are still finding their identity under Jose Fernandez's up-tempo system, but what they showed against the Fever — Ogunbowale and Bueckers combining for 42 points, Fudd contributing as a spacing threat in her second professional game — was a preview of what this offense looks like when it's functioning. The concern for Dallas remains the same as it was on opening day: they are one of the league's most porous defensive teams, and the Lynx, for all their offensive limitations right now, have the defensive structure and veteran discipline to keep games in the 80s.
Olivia Miles had flashes through the first two games that justify optimism about what she can become as a primary playmaker — her instincts, her willingness to push pace, and her composure in the halfcourt are all ahead of where most rookies land in Week 1. The bigger concern Thursday is Kayla McBride, who is listed as questionable with an injury. McBride is Minnesota's most reliable perimeter scoring option and the player whose three-point shooting most changes how defenses guard the Lynx's halfcourt sets. If she doesn't play — or plays limited minutes — Minnesota's offensive ceiling drops significantly, and the path to a road win against an up-tempo Dallas team narrows considerably.
Dallas wins if Ogunbowale takes over in the fourth quarter the way she has done repeatedly in her career — she is the best late-game isolation scorer on this roster and one of the best in the league — Bueckers continues operating as a primary creator with growing confidence, and College Park Center provides the home energy that pushed the Wings over the Fever in Week 1.
Minnesota wins if McBride is available and finds her range from three — her presence alone changes how Dallas has to defend the perimeter — Miles runs the offense with the composure she showed in flashes against Atlanta, and the Lynx's defensive discipline holds Dallas's scoring average to something manageable for a team that is capable of offensive explosions but just as capable of going cold for long stretches.
Prediction: Dallas -3.5, O/U 177.5. Kayla McBride is questionable and if she sits, the Lynx's already-limited perimeter spacing becomes even more of a liability against Dallas's pace-and-space system. Computer models project Dallas at roughly 61% win probability with McBride healthy; that number shifts further toward the Wings if she's out. Minnesota will compete — they always do — but the road stretch, the depth gap, and the injury cloud make this a difficult spot for the Lynx. Wings not only cover, but they win.
Liberty Closes the Road Trip Looking for Revenge
New York Liberty @ Portland Fire | 10:00pm ET | Fox 12 Plus, WWOR-TV
The Liberty lost to Portland on a buzzer beater Tuesday night — a result that landed differently than a typical early-season loss. New York is 2-1 with both wins coming at home in Brooklyn, and the only road game they've played ended with a last-second shot going against them in Moda Center. That stings. The Liberty are back in Portland two days later, and the motivation is writing itself.
Portland is playing above its head and doing it at home. The Fire are not simply competing for a half and fading — they are executing late, making shots that matter, and using the Moda Center crowd in ways that have made this building genuinely uncomfortable for opponents. Bridget Carleton gives them a veteran anchor who thrives in exactly these situations. Head coach Nadia Sidiakova has this expansion roster believing they can beat anyone at home, and Tuesday's buzzer beater only reinforces that.
The Liberty's response will tell us more about this team than any game so far. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones are too good to lose to Portland twice in the same week, and Chris DeMarco's group knows it. Without Sabrina Ionescu, the offense operates without its primary playmaker — opposing defenses collapse into the paint and take away the arc, which is exactly what Portland did on Tuesday to force the game into a last-possession situation. The adjustments DeMarco makes Thursday, and whether Stewart and Jones execute them, is the real storyline.
Portland wins if Carleton and the home crowd replicate the late-game execution that produced Tuesday's buzzer beater, the Fire's defensive scheme again takes away New York's rhythm without Ionescu, and Moda Center stays loud enough to give Portland the kind of home energy that has defined their first week.
New York wins if Stewart and Jones impose themselves early and make Tuesday's loss irrelevant by halftime, DeMarco's defensive adjustments close the gaps that Portland exploited in the final possession, and the Liberty's championship-level talent proves too much for an expansion team to beat twice in the same building in the same week.
Prediction: New York -11.5, O/U 176.5. The spread is notable given Portland just beat this Liberty team two days ago — the market is still backing New York heavily, which reflects the talent gap more than the recent result. Computer models project New York at approximately 85% win probability. The Liberty are two losses deep without Ionescu and need a response. Portland beating the same opponent twice in three days would be remarkable even for an established team, let alone a first-year expansion franchise. Liberty cover and get their revenge.
What to Watch For Tonight.
Minnesota-Dallas is the game with the most at stake in the standings. The Lynx are 0-2, walking into a building where the Wings have already beaten a contender this week, and now dealing with McBride's questionable status on top of everything else. A third straight loss makes the math genuinely difficult even with Collier coming back in June. The Liberty-Portland game is the better story — New York lost to an expansion team on a buzzer beater Tuesday and gets them again in the same building Thursday. Whether the Liberty respond like a championship-caliber roster or let Portland make this a genuine series is the most compelling question on the slate.
