Day 9 of the Commissioner's Cup, and Tuesday features three games with significant implications for both conference standings. Atlanta visits Chicago in what should be a comfortable Eastern Conference margin-builder for a Dream team that has built plus-36 point differential through three Cup games. The Wings travel to Target Center for the Western Conference's most competitive regular Tuesday matchup, where Dallas and Minnesota are the two best teams not named Las Vegas in the West. And the Mercury head to Chase Center with both Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper listed as day-to-day after their Friday win at Portland, which may be the most consequential injury update in the Western Conference Cup race. Here's what to watch.

Atlanta Dream @ Chicago Sky | 7:30pm ET | ION

Atlanta is 7-3 and carrying the Commissioner's Cup's best point differential in the Eastern Conference at plus-36 through three games. The Dream beat Connecticut, Washington, and Indiana in convincing fashion before suffering their only Cup loss to the Liberty. This road game in Chicago is exactly the kind of contest where Atlanta's organizational focus and defensive identity should produce the result the -7.5 spread reflects: a dominant road performance against a team that has lost five of its last six games and is 4-11 at Wintrust Arena this season.

Chicago is 4-7 and on one of the more difficult stretches of any team in the Commissioner's Cup. The Sky have lost five of their last six games, and the organizational diagnosis points to two areas: their offense has been inconsistent without Rickea Jackson's perimeter scoring, and the halfcourt execution that Skylar Diggins-Smith carries has not been enough to overcome the spacing limitations Jackson's ACL tear created. Two positive signs did emerge from the past week: Azura Stevens posted back-to-back double-doubles, her first two of the season in six games played, and rookie Gabriela Jaquez returned from a four-game knee absence on Sunday. Those pieces give Chicago something to build on. But Atlanta's defensive profile, built around Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray's perimeter pressure and Angel Reese's interior control, is specifically the kind of scheme that punishes a team without reliable secondary scoring.

The Dream's Cup schedule this week is demanding: Chicago on Tuesday, Liberty on Thursday, Toronto at the end of the stretch. Atlanta needs to build margin now against Chicago and leverage their current Cup position before a Liberty matchup that will be the Eastern Conference's defining game. Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Reese have been the Dream's three most productive Cup contributors, and the road game at Wintrust Arena is the setting where Atlanta's organizational depth should be most visible against a Sky team searching for answers.

Chicago wins if Diggins-Smith operates at the elite creation level that has carried the Sky in their Cup wins, Stevens sustains her double-double form and gives Chicago a reliable interior option that shifts defensive attention away from Diggins-Smith's pick-and-roll, and the Wintrust Arena crowd responds to a week of difficult results with the kind of urgency that occasionally lifts a struggling team above its projected ceiling.

Atlanta wins if Howard and Gray reproduce the defensive performance that has held every Cup opponent below their season averages, Reese dominates the glass and generates the second-chance scoring that has been Atlanta's most reliable Cup offensive weapon, and the Dream execute with the Cup margin-building focus that their plus-36 point differential suggests they are approaching every game with.

Prediction: Atlanta -7.5. The Dream are the better team with specific defensive advantages at every position that Chicago's current roster cannot consistently overcome without Jackson. Computer models project Atlanta at approximately 75% win probability, consistent with the -325 moneyline. Diggins-Smith and Stevens can make this competitive in the first half. Atlanta's depth and defensive identity separate this game in the third quarter. Dream win and cover.

Dallas Wings @ Minnesota Lynx | 8:00pm ET | Prime Video

Minnesota is 9-2 and the No. 1 team in the league by record and most power ranking metrics. The Lynx have not lost a Cup game. Their only two regular-season losses have come against opponents with real credentials, and the team they are without Napheesa Collier has been good enough to lead the Western Conference Cup standings comfortably. Natasha Howard continues to be the interior anchor, Olivia Miles is developing at the rate that the most ambitious preseason projections projected, and Kayla McBride's perimeter shooting gives Minnesota the spacing that makes the Lynx's halfcourt system most efficient. Target Center in a Tuesday Cup game is one of the league's more difficult environments for any road team.

Dallas is 7-3 and has been one of the Cup's more credible Western Conference challengers. The Wings beat Las Vegas 95-87 on Thursday behind Jessica Shepard's historic triple-double of 22 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 assists, a result that validated the market's shift: the Dallas Wings have shortened from 30-1 to 15-1 in the championship odds since entering the season at that number. Arike Ogunbowale, Paige Bueckers, and Azzi Fudd give Dallas the offensive ceiling to compete against any Western Conference opponent on any given night. The question is whether that ceiling is high enough to win at Target Center against a 9-2 Lynx team that has beaten every Cup opponent they have faced.

The individual matchup at the guard level is the game within this game. Bueckers against Minnesota's perimeter defense, and Ogunbowale against whoever the Lynx assign to her, are the two coverage decisions that define Dallas's offensive ceiling. Miles's facilitation against the Ogunbowale-Bueckers coverage is the counter. Whichever team controls pace through the first two quarters has consistently been the team that wins Cup games at Target Center this month.

Dallas wins if Ogunbowale and Bueckers generate the offensive efficiency that has made the Wings one of the Western Conference's most dangerous teams over the past two weeks, Shepard sustains the interior production from Thursday's Las Vegas win and gives Dallas a frontcourt presence that changes how Minnesota constructs its defensive rotations, and the Wings' pace-based attack prevents the Lynx from settling into the halfcourt defensive mode where Minnesota has been at its best.

Minnesota wins if Howard continues her interior dominance and Miles runs the offense with the composure that has made her the league's most impressive rookie contributor, the Lynx's defensive structure limits the Ogunbowale-Bueckers backcourt to below their Cup averages, and Target Center delivers the home energy that has been a consistent factor in Minnesota's nine wins this season.

Prediction: Minnesota -4.5. The Lynx are at home, 9-2, against the most talented opponent they have faced in the Cup so far. The spread is tighter than most Minnesota home games because Dallas has the offensive ceiling to make this competitive. Computer models project Minnesota at approximately 63% win probability, consistent with the -185 moneyline. Olivia Miles has been the breakout performer of the Commissioner's Cup, and her ability to control this game against Dallas's pressure is the individual development the Western Conference Cup race is watching most closely. Lynx win and cover.

Phoenix Mercury @ Golden State Valkyries | 10:00pm ET | WNBA League Pass

The most important context heading into Tuesday night's late game is what happened Friday in Portland. The Mercury won at Moda Center without Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper, both of whom sat with a calf and hip injury respectively. That result deserves credit. A road win against a 6-6 Portland team with the two most important players unavailable is not a result most teams in the league can produce, and it confirms that Phoenix has veteran depth around Thomas and Copper that the 4-8 record underrepresents. Both players are listed as day-to-day heading into Tuesday's road game at Chase Center, and their availability remains the single most consequential variable on Tuesday's slate.

Golden State is 6-5 and playing with the kind of Cup urgency that a team needing to stabilize its Western Conference position brings to a home game. The Valkyries lost to the Aces 84-79 on Saturday in a game where Las Vegas earned its first home win of the season, and Chase Center on Tuesday is the reset game. Veronica Burton's 15 points and 6.4 assists per game give Golden State the veteran offensive engine that complements the defensive system Williams and Stokes anchor. Gabby Williams's perimeter disruption is specifically the defensive tool that makes life difficult for Phoenix's secondary ball handlers even when Thomas is unavailable, and Janelle Salaun's three-point shooting gives the Valkyries the floor spacing that makes Burton's creation most efficient.

The structural case for Golden State is straightforward. Chase Center, a motivated home team after Saturday's loss, with Williams disrupting Phoenix's facilitation against a Mercury rotation that is already operating without certainty about its two best players. The 7.5-point spread assumes Thomas and Copper remain out. If Thomas returns and controls tempo, the number compresses significantly. But the Valkyries' defensive architecture has made them one of the Western Conference's more reliable home teams in Cup play, and the market is correctly pricing Phoenix's personnel uncertainty.

Phoenix wins if Thomas is available and imposes the pace control that has defined every Mercury win this season, the veteran depth that produced Friday's Portland win carries over into a Chase Center environment where Phoenix has competitive road results this month, and the Valkyries' post-loss defensive energy produces the kind of inconsistency that road teams occasionally exploit.

Golden State wins if Thomas and Copper remain unavailable and Williams disrupts the Mercury's secondary ball handlers enough to hold Phoenix below 80 points, Burton operates at her season-average level and gives the Valkyries the offensive production they need to build separation in the third quarter, and Chase Center delivers the home urgency that a 6-5 team needs after Saturday's loss to reassert its Western Conference Cup credentials.

Prediction: Golden State -7.5. The Valkyries are at home with the better defensive infrastructure, a Cup loss to respond to, and a Mercury team operating without confirmed availability from its two most important players. Computer models project Golden State at approximately 75% win probability. Thomas's potential return is the factor that makes this number feel large, but the structural advantages belong to the Valkyries on Tuesday. Valkyries win and cover.

The Dream-Sky game is the Eastern Conference Cup's most predictable Tuesday result: Atlanta needs this margin and Chicago is in its most vulnerable stretch of the season. The Wings-Lynx game is the night's best competitive matchup: Dallas beat Las Vegas last Thursday and arrives at Target Center with the credentials to make Minnesota's 9-2 record genuinely uncomfortable for 40 minutes. And Mercury-Valkyries closes the night with the most important injury storyline of the Cup's second week. Thomas and Copper's availability has been the variable that the market is pricing at -7.5, and whether Golden State can hold a depleted Phoenix offense below that margin is the Western Conference Cup question Tuesday answers.