Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty | 7:00 PM ET | Prime Video

Las Vegas enters at 14-5, the West's top seed, having gone 6-1 through Cup play. New York is 12-8, the East's representative at 6-0 in Cup and will be playing in front of their home crowd at the Barclays Center. The market has the Liberty as -2.5 favorites at -108, with the moneyline at -135, implying roughly 57% win probability for New York playing in front of their home crowd. The total sits at 175.5, with the over priced at -110 on both sides.

This is a rematch of the two best teams left standing this season, and it carries history. New York beat Las Vegas in the 2023 Commissioner's Cup final, 82-63, while the Aces beat the Liberty in the 2023 WNBA Finals. Whoever wins tonight becomes the first franchise to win the Commissioner's Cup twice.

The health report shapes everything about how this game will be played. Satou Sabally remains in concussion protocol and will not play for New York, a real loss for a Liberty frontcourt that has needed her two-way versatility next to Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. Stewart, who sat out Thursday's game against Seattle on a rest designation, is back in the lineup and healthy. On the Las Vegas side, A'ja Wilson is officially questionable after taking a hard fall in Sunday's game against Golden State, though she stayed in to finish with a near triple-double effort. If Wilson plays her normal minutes, this game tilts toward the Aces having the best player on the floor. If she's limited or held out, New York's path gets considerably easier.

Wilson against Stewart is the matchup this game is built around. Both are former MVPs, both have multiple championships, and both are operating at the peak of their respective primes. Stewart brings size and perimeter shooting that forces Wilson to defend away from the basket, while Wilson's two-way dominance, anchored by three Defensive Player of the Year awards, gives Las Vegas the rim protection New York's offense will have to solve. Jonquel Jones adds another former MVP to the floor for New York, giving the Liberty size advantages in a frontcourt that should be able to generate second-chance opportunities regardless of who's defending Stewart.

Sabrina Ionescu is the swing factor for New York's offense. She's played through back and foot issues for most of the season and has not shot the ball at her career level, sitting well below her usual three-point efficiency. A return to form from Ionescu, especially against a Las Vegas defense that has shown moments of inconsistency away from Wilson's individual brilliance, would give New York the second perimeter scoring threat it needs to complement Stewart and Jones. Without Sabally, New York's depth chart leans more heavily on Pauline Astier, Leonie Fiebich, and Marine Johannès to fill minutes that would otherwise belong to one of the team's most versatile two-way players.

For Las Vegas, the supporting cast around Wilson has been deep enough to win without needing every individual matchup. Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray give the Aces a backcourt that can control pace and limit empty offensive possessions, and Chennedy Carter's return from an extended absence adds a sixth-player scoring threat to a bench that already has scoring punch. Las Vegas also arrives with the better recent form, riding momentum into Brooklyn with championship pedigree, three titles in the last four years, that has been forged in exactly these kinds of high-stakes environments.

Las Vegas wins if Wilson plays at or near her normal minutes load and dominates the matchup against Stewart on both ends, Young and Gray control tempo and limit New York's transition opportunities, and the Aces' recent momentum and championship experience show up in the execution details that decide close games.

New York wins if Stewart wins enough of the individual matchup against Wilson to neutralize the Aces' biggest advantage, Ionescu rediscovers the shooting efficiency that made her one of the league's premier perimeter threats, and the Liberty's interior size with Jones and Stewart produces enough second-chance scoring to offset the absence of Sabally's versatility.

Prediction: Las Vegas +2.5. The Aces arrive with the better recent form and a roster that has been here before on the biggest stages, and that championship pedigree is the deciding factor in a game this evenly matched on paper. Wilson's questionable tag is worth tracking, but her performance through Sunday's fall suggests she'll play through it. Computer models have this closer to a true coin flip than the market's number suggests, and the Aces' recent momentum tips the scale. The total at 175.5 should be live throughout if both Wilson and Stewart play full minutes. Aces win and also cover.