Four games Sunday. Minnesota visits Dallas in the day's most talent-loaded afternoon matchup on NBC. Washington hosts Portland in the early afternoon East Coast window. Las Vegas travels to Chicago. And New York visits Chase Center for a late-afternoon game against the Valkyries two days before the Commissioner's Cup Final at Barclays Center. Here's what to watch.

Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings | 2:00 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

Minnesota is 14-4 and the Western Conference's top team by record and net rating. The Lynx have been the standard against which every Western Conference team measures itself, and the -4.5 spread at -185 moneyline against a 11-7 Dallas team reflects that gap even in a road game at College Park Center. Minnesota visits Dallas having already beaten the Wings in Commissioner's Cup play, and the Lynx's defensive profile, led by their +13.8 net rating, is the organizational constant that makes them the Western Conference's most complete team regardless of personnel.

Dallas is 11-7 and 6-4 in the last ten, one of the Western Conference's better recent-form teams. The Wings have beaten the Aces this season and competed with Minnesota in prior meetings. Arike Ogunbowale, Paige Bueckers, and Azzi Fudd give College Park Center the offensive ceiling to make any game competitive, and Jessica Shepard's interior production has been the specific variable that changes Dallas's competitive profile against elite opponents. The total at 177.5 is the second-highest on Sunday's slate, reflecting both the Lynx's offensive efficiency and Dallas's pace-based attack.

Olivia Miles against the Wings' perimeter defense is the individual matchup worth tracking. Miles has been producing at historically unprecedented rookie levels and Bueckers is the most comparable player in the league in terms of second-year development and facilitation profile. Two of the WNBA's best young point guards on the same floor gives this game an individual subplot that the national NBC broadcast is built for.

Dallas wins if Ogunbowale and Bueckers generate the offensive efficiency that has made this three-guard lineup one of the Western Conference's most productive attacks, Shepard provides the interior production that changes Minnesota's defensive rotations, and College Park Center delivers the home energy that has been a factor in Dallas's wins against quality opponents.

Minnesota wins if Miles controls pace and generates the transition opportunities that have defined the Lynx's most efficient offensive nights, the defensive scheme holds the Wings' three-guard lineup below their season average, and the Lynx's organizational depth proves too much for Dallas to sustain competitiveness through four quarters.

Prediction: Minnesota -4.5. The Lynx are the better team and the 8-2 last-ten record is the most honest reflection of where this team is. Computer models project Minnesota at approximately 65% win probability, consistent with the -185 moneyline. Dallas at home with a full roster is never a comfortable road game, and the Wings have the offensive ceiling to keep this close. The Lynx's defensive depth is the difference. Lynx win and cover.

Portland Fire @ Washington Mystics | 3:00 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

Washington is 8-9 and 5-5 in the last ten, at home against a Portland team that is 8-11 and 3-7 in the last ten. The -6.5 spread at -265 moneyline implies 73% win probability for a Mystics team that has Sonia Citron as the Eastern Conference's most productive sophomore and the home advantage at CareFirst Arena. Portland's road record has been the consistent source of competitive difficulty all season, and Washington's recent results include the home win over Connecticut that validated Citron's individual ceiling in a game the market had the Mystics as the -4.5 road favorite to win easily.

Portland is 8-11 and 3-7 in the last ten. Bridget Carleton and Carla Leite give the Fire the two-player offensive core that has kept individual games competitive regardless of venue, but the 3-7 last-ten reflects the consistent gap between Portland's best performances at Moda Center and what they produce away from it. The 165.5 total is the lowest on Sunday's slate, reflecting both teams' defensive profiles when engaged.

Citron against Portland's perimeter defense is the central individual matchup. The Fire have struggled to contain ball-dominant guards throughout the season, and Citron's creation is precisely the offensive mode that CareFirst Arena's halfcourt environment allows her to operate in most effectively.

Portland wins if Carleton and Leite sustain the offensive production that has made them the Fire's most reliable road contributors, the 6.5-point spread proves too large for a Mystics team that has been inconsistent in their home performances against road teams with losing records, and Portland's competitive habits from Moda Center transfer to a Washington building where the Fire have not been tested this season.

Washington wins if Citron operates at the individual offensive level that has made her the Eastern Conference's most productive sophomore, Kiki Irafen wins the interior battle and generates the second-chance scoring that gives the Mystics a reliable offensive floor, and CareFirst Arena delivers the home energy that has been a factor in Washington's better results.

Prediction: Washington -6.5. The Mystics are at home with the better recent form and the specific individual advantage through Citron against Portland's perimeter defense. Computer models project Washington at approximately 73% win probability, consistent with the -265 moneyline. Carleton will score and Portland will compete in the first half. Citron and the home crowd separate this game in the third quarter. Mystics win and cover.

Las Vegas Aces @ Chicago Sky | 4:00 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

Las Vegas is 13-5 and heading to the Commissioner's Cup Final at Barclays Center on Tuesday night. Sunday's game in Chicago is one of two regular-season games the Aces play this week with the championship on the schedule, and the -7.5 spread at -340 moneyline implies 77% win probability against a Chicago team that is 6-12 and 3-7 in the last ten. Wilson and the Aces are the better team at every position, and the question Sunday is how Becky Hammon manages the rotation with Tuesday looming.

Chicago is 6-12 and Skylar Diggins-Smith remains the team's competitive constant. Without Rickea Jackson, the Sky's offensive ceiling has been defined by how much Diggins-Smith can carry in any given game, and the 178.5 total is the highest on Sunday's slate, reflecting both the Aces' 91.8 points per game pace and Chicago's defensive vulnerabilities at 93.4 allowed per game. The +270 moneyline for Chicago implies 27% win probability, which is the market pricing in the talent gap accurately against a team that is 3-7 in its last ten.

The game within Sunday's broader context is how Wilson, Young, and Gray are used with the Cup Final two days away. Hammon has historically treated regular-season games as competitive regardless of what follows, and the Aces' organizational culture supports that approach. The +270 for Chicago is a live underdog number for anyone who believes Cup Final preparation changes how Las Vegas approaches this game.

Chicago wins if Diggins-Smith produces one of those individual veteran performances that carries the Sky beyond what their roster disadvantage should allow, the Aces' minute management produces the kind of reduced defensive intensity that a team with a championship game later tonight occasionally shows, and the United Center crowd gives Chicago the home energy that has produced their better results.

Las Vegas wins if Wilson operates at the level that has made her the league's most dominant individual player through the first two months, the Aces treat Sunday afternoon as the professional preparation exercise that championship teams deploy before major events, and the talent gap between a 13-5 team with Wilson, Young, and Gray and a 6-12 team without their best offensive player is the decisive factor it should be.

Prediction: Las Vegas -7.5. The Aces are the better team by every available metric and the Cup Final context, while unusual, does not change the organizational discipline that Hammon's teams bring to every game. Computer models project Las Vegas at approximately 77% win probability, consistent with the -340 moneyline. Diggins-Smith will score and Chicago will compete in the first half. Wilson's closing ability and the Aces' depth separate this in the third quarter. Aces win and cover.

New York Liberty @ Golden State Valkyries | 7:00 PM ET | ESPN

New York is 12-7 and two days away from the Commissioner's Cup Final at Barclays Center on Tuesday. Sunday's game at Chase Center is one of the last regular-season games before the championship, and Golden State is 12-7 and 6-4 in the last ten, a genuine Western Conference team with the defensive infrastructure to make a Liberty rotation uncomfortable for 40 minutes.

The market calls this nearly even: Golden State -1.5 at -115, the Liberty +1.5 at -105. The 52% implied probability for the Valkyries reflects the home-court advantage as the primary differentiating factor when the talent matchup is this close. Gabby Williams against whoever the Liberty deploy is the individual defensive matchup, and whether New York plays Ionescu, Stewart, and Jones at full competitive intensity ahead of Tuesday is the question the market is pricing into that near-even number.

The 163.5 total is the lowest on Sunday's slate, reflecting Golden State's defensive identity at 83.9 points allowed per game and the expectation that this game stays organized and low-scoring with both teams' defensive schemes engaged.

Golden State wins if Williams disrupts the Liberty's ball movement and the Chase Center crowd generates the home energy that has been a consistent factor in the Valkyries' wins, Burton operates at the assist-to-turnover efficiency that defines her season-long profile, and the Liberty's Cup Final preparation produces the kind of conservative rotation that keeps New York's offensive ceiling below what Golden State's defense needs to exploit.

New York wins if Stewart and Ionescu play with enough competitive intensity that the Liberty treat Sunday afternoon as a genuine game rather than a warmup, the ball movement that defines New York's offensive system generates the perimeter looks that Golden State's halfcourt scheme takes away, and the Liberty use Sunday as the kind of focused preparation that sharpens their execution ahead of tonight's championship.

Prediction: Golden State -1.5. The home-court advantage is the tiebreaker when one team has a championship game in a few hours and the other is playing for a regular-season result that matters. Computer models project Golden State at approximately 52% win probability. This is the closest call on Sunday's slate and the one where the context is most likely to produce a result the market did not anticipate. Valkyries win and cover.

Minnesota-Dallas on NBC is Sunday's best competitive game: two of the Western Conference's better teams, national broadcast, Miles and Bueckers as the young point guard subplot. The Aces-Sky matchup at 3pm carries its own interest with Chicago's +270 moneyline as the live underdog play for anyone tracking Diggins-Smith's individual ceiling against a Las Vegas team two days from the Cup Final. And the Liberty at Chase Center at 6pm closes Sunday's slate as a near-coin-flip where New York's Tuesday preparation and Golden State's home advantage make this the most context-dependent result of the day.