Four games Monday. Connecticut welcome Chicago at PeoplesBank Arena where they are (shocker) the underdog against the Sky. Toronto travels to Atlanta in the most lopsided game of the night, a -13.5 spread that reflects the gap between an 11-4 Dream and an 8-8 Tempo. Phoenix visits Gainbridge Fieldhouse for a game where Indiana is a substantial home favorite over a Mercury team that is 3-7 in its last ten. And Dallas heads to Seattle in the late window for a Wings team that has been one of the Western Conference's most consistent units over the past month. Here's what to watch.

Chicago Sky @ Connecticut Sun | 6:00pm ET | ION, WNBA League Pass

The most unusual line on Monday's slate: Connecticut is the home underdog at +130 against a Chicago Sky team that is itself 4-11 and 1-9 in its last ten. Two of the league's three worst records sharing a floor in a game where the crowd at PeoplesBank Arena has been one of the Sunset Season's consistent competitive advantages, and the market still prices Chicago as the better team. Both teams are chasing history in the wrong direction, but the Sun are 2-15 and the Sky are 4-11, a gap that makes Chicago the favorite in what should otherwise be a genuine toss-up.

Chicago's 1-9 record in the last ten reflects the organizational reality of a team that has Skylar Diggins-Smith as its primary offensive contributor and not much behind her since Rickea Jackson's ACL tear removed the perimeter scoring that made Chicago's halfcourt sets most dangerous. Kamilla Cardoso provides interior production, and Diggins-Smith's veteran creation has kept individual games competitive longer than the record would imply. But the defensive limitations that have defined Chicago's struggles all season are precisely the vulnerabilities that Connecticut's offense, led by Brittney Griner's interior presence, is built to target.

Connecticut is 2-15 and 1-9 in the last ten, matching Chicago's recent form in the worst way. The Sun have Griner at 16 points and 5.7 rebounds per game and Aneesah Morrow's double-double presence alongside her, giving Connecticut the two-interior-piece combination that makes PeoplesBank Arena competitive in the first half of nearly every game this season. The Sunset Season's farewell tour has not produced the wins, but the crowd has produced the energy, and a Monday night game in Uncasville against a Sky team without the defensive infrastructure to contain Griner is the closest thing to a winnable game on Connecticut's remaining schedule.

Connecticut wins if Griner produces the dominant interior performance that forces Cardoso into foul trouble and disrupts the defensive rotations that have allowed Chicago to stay competitive in close games, the PeoplesBank Arena crowd generates the Sunset Season energy that has produced competitive first halves in every home game this season, and Diggins-Smith has a quiet night from the perimeter that prevents Chicago from building a first-half lead the crowd cannot overcome.

Chicago wins if Diggins-Smith operates at the veteran creation level that has carried the Sky in their four wins, Cardoso controls the glass and limits Griner's second-chance scoring below her season average, and Chicago's road discipline holds up against a Sunset Season crowd that has been this building's most consistent competitive advantage all month.

Prediction: Chicago -3.5. The Sky are the more talented team despite both rosters sitting near the bottom of the league. Diggins-Smith's individual ceiling over Connecticut's defensive limitations is the decisive factor. Computer models project Chicago at approximately 59% win probability, consistent with the -155 moneyline. Connecticut will make the first half competitive and Griner will score. Diggins-Smith's veteran closing separates it in the fourth. Sky win and cover.

Toronto Tempo @ Atlanta Dream | 6:30pm ET | Peachtree TV, ION

Atlanta is 11-4 and operating with the organizational consistency of the Eastern Conference's best team outside of whatever the standings say about New York. The Dream are 7-3 in the last ten, the best mark of any Eastern Conference team in that stretch, and the defensive identity around Howard and Gray is the most coherent two-way perimeter pairing in the conference. Angel Reese leading the WNBA with 11.3 rebounds per game changes how opposing teams construct their entire defensive scheme, and Jordin Canada's 6.9 assists per game as a secondary creator makes Atlanta's offensive system genuinely multi-layered. State Farm Arena is a real home advantage, and a -13.5 spread against a team at 8-8 is the market's honest reflection of where these rosters are.

Toronto is 8-8 and 5-5 in the last ten, a record that reflects the Tempo's variance more honestly than any single game result. Marina Mabrey has been the offensive anchor throughout the season, and Isabelle Harrison's addition from injury gave the rotation an interior dimension it lacked. Brittney Sykes's foot injury has been the most significant recent development affecting Toronto's competitive ceiling: without Sykes healthy, the Mabrey-led backcourt is less dynamic and the Tempo's secondary scoring options narrow in ways that a -13.5 spread against a Dream defense ranked second in the WNBA at 79.1 points allowed reflects directly. The road game in Atlanta is the worst possible setting for a Tempo team managing injury uncertainty in its backcourt.

The -1000 moneyline implies 91% win probability. State Farm Arena, Howard and Gray on the perimeter against whoever Toronto deploys, Reese controlling the glass, and Atlanta's 7-3 last-ten form are the four structural factors that make this one of Monday's most analytically settled results.

Toronto wins if Mabrey produces at the individual elite level her best performances have shown and the Tempo's pace-pushing attack generates the kind of transition looks that limit Atlanta's ability to set its halfcourt defensive scheme, Harrison provides enough interior production that Toronto's offense has a second reliable option, and the 13.5-point spread proves too large for a Dream team that has not always pressed its foot on the gas against overmatched opponents.

Atlanta wins if Howard and Gray reproduce the two-way performance that has made them the most disruptive perimeter pairing in the Eastern Conference, Reese dominates the glass and generates the second-chance points that have been Atlanta's most reliable offensive weapon all season, and State Farm Arena delivers the home energy that has made this building one of the tougher road environments in the East.

Prediction: Atlanta -13.5. The Dream are the better team at every position, at home, against a Toronto team managing backcourt injuries and sitting at 8-8 with a 5-5 last-ten. Computer models project Atlanta at approximately 91% win probability, consistent with the -1000 moneyline. Mabrey will score and Toronto will compete in the first quarter. Atlanta's defensive depth and rebounding advantage separate this game by the third. Dream win and cover.

Phoenix Mercury @ Indiana Fever | 7:00pm ET | ION

Indiana is 9-7 and 5-5 in the last ten, a stretch that reflects the inconsistency that Clark's back injury and the Fever's defensive limitations have created over the past month. The Fever lead the WNBA at 91.8 points per game but are tied for 13th in scoring defense at 89 allowed, a combination that makes every game feel like a shootout and puts Indiana in positions where the offensive ceiling is the only path to competitive results. At home against a Phoenix team that is 5-12 and 3-7 in the last ten, the -6.5 spread and -238 moneyline imply 70% win probability, which is where a 9-7 team should be against a 5-12 opponent at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Phoenix is 5-12 and has been the Western Conference's most difficult record to contextualize all season. The Mercury's five wins include the season-opening upset of Las Vegas that snapped the Aces' 16-game winning streak, a result that established the ceiling of what this team can do when Thomas controls pace and Copper provides perimeter burst. The 12 losses reflect the injuries, the inconsistency, and the structural limitations of a roster rebuilt after last year's Finals run. Thomas is the one piece that elevates Phoenix to competitive every night he plays, and at Indiana against a Fever defense that allows 89 points per game, Thomas's interior control is the specific tool that can keep Monday's game within the spread range.

Clark's back injury status is the most important variable to monitor before tip. The Fever are a different offensive team when Clark is managing the injury rather than playing at full mobility, and Gainbridge Fieldhouse against a Phoenix team at 3-7 in its last ten is the kind of spot where the Fever need Clark to be close to full capacity to cover 6.5 points.

Phoenix wins if Thomas controls the pace and limits Indiana's transition opportunities to the halfcourt possessions where the Fever are less efficient, Copper provides the perimeter burst that gives Phoenix a secondary scoring threat, and Clark's back injury limits her mobility enough to compress Indiana's offensive ceiling below the 6.5-point margin the market requires.

Indiana wins if Clark facilitates at the level that makes the Fever's league-leading 91.8 points per game sustainable against a Phoenix defense that has been the third-best in the West at 83.3 points allowed, Mitchell and Boston provide the secondary scoring that makes Indiana's offense genuinely difficult to guard at multiple levels, and Gainbridge Fieldhouse delivers the home energy that the Fever's most engaged crowd in the league consistently generates.

Prediction: Indiana -6.5. The Fever at home against a Phoenix team that is 3-7 in its last ten is the right side of a 6.5-point spread, Clark's back status notwithstanding. Computer models project Indiana at approximately 70% win probability, consistent with the -238 moneyline. Thomas will keep this competitive through three quarters. Clark's facilitation and the home crowd separate it in the fourth. Fever win and cover.

Dallas Wings @ Seattle Storm | 9:00pm ET | WNBA League Pass

Dallas is 10-6 and 7-3 in the last ten, one of the Western Conference's strongest recent-form teams alongside Minnesota and Las Vegas. The Wings have separated themselves from the middle of the Western Conference standings with a run that has included wins over the defending champion Aces and multiple other quality opponents. Ogunbowale, Bueckers, and Fudd give Dallas the three-guard offensive core that the betting market has recognized as genuinely dangerous, and the -9.5 spread against Seattle at -395 moneyline implies 80% win probability against a Storm team that is 0-10 in its last ten.

Seattle is 3-14 and 0-10 in the last ten, the most damaging recent-form stretch in the league. The Storm have been without Ezi Magbegor and Dominique Malonga throughout the season, leaving a frontcourt gap that every opponent has exploited. Flau'jae Johnson has been the one individual bright spot and the first-round pick's scoring instincts have occasionally kept first-half games competitive. But 0-10 in the last ten is not a record that produces competitive results against a Dallas team with three legitimate offensive threats and the organizational confidence of a recent win over the defending champion.

The 9.5-point spread is well within what the Wings have been generating against comparable opponents. Seattle's 0-10 last-ten record is the most relevant context heading into a road game against a team playing the best basketball in the Western Conference outside of the top two.

Seattle wins if Johnson erupts for one of those individual offensive performances that temporarily overrides the structural gap and Dallas's road execution produces the kind of loose defensive effort that a team with a comfortable schedule lead occasionally shows in late West Coast games, and the 9.5-point spread proves too large for a Wings team that has been more effective in close competitive environments than in blowout mode.

Dallas wins if Ogunbowale and Bueckers generate the offensive efficiency that has made this three-guard lineup one of the Western Conference's most productive attacks over the past month, Fudd converts the perimeter opportunities that Dallas's creation produces, and the Wings' defensive pressure forces Seattle's depleted roster into the turnover-heavy half that has defined the Storm's worst recent results.

Prediction: Dallas -9.5. The Wings are the better team against the Western Conference's worst recent-form team in a road game that carries the competitive weight of a playoff-positioning stretch. Computer models project Dallas at approximately 80% win probability, consistent with the -395 moneyline. Johnson will score and keep the first half interesting. Dallas's three-guard offensive ceiling separates this game by the third quarter. Wings win and cover.

The Dream-Tempo game is Monday's most analytically settled result at -1000, and the margin is the storyline: Atlanta's point differential heading into the playoff stretch matters for seeding, and State Farm Arena with the full Dream roster against an 8-8 Toronto team managing backcourt injuries is the right setting for the Dream to build it. The Fever-Mercury game is Monday's most interesting competitive question. Thomas's individual capability and Clark's back injury status create enough uncertainty that a 6.5-point spread against Phoenix's best version is a number worth tracking closely before tip. Wings-Storm closes the night with the Western Conference's most lopsided recent-form matchup, where Dallas has won seven of its last ten and Seattle has won zero.