Day 14 of the Commissioner's Cup, and Sunday carries championship implications in the East. The New York Liberty can clinch their share of the Eastern Conference's Commissioner's Cup title on Sunday with a win over Washington, or with an Indiana loss elsewhere in the schedule. Atlanta visits Toronto for the first-ever meeting between these two franchises, a game where the Dream are mathematically out of Cup contention following Thursday's 104-90 loss to New York, but the result still counts in the regular-season standings and Toronto is playing for its own bracket survival. Here's what to watch.

Atlanta Dream @ Toronto Tempo | 3:00pm ET | Peachtree TV, TSN

This is the first meeting between these franchises in league history. Atlanta is 8-4 overall and 3-2 in Commissioner's Cup play, having been eliminated from Eastern Conference Cup contention after Thursday's 104-90 loss to the Liberty. Angel Reese led three Atlanta players in double figures with 25 points, nine rebounds, and three assists in that defeat, a performance that confirmed the Dream's individual quality even on a night when New York's 59-45 edge over the middle two quarters pulled away. The Dream are out of the Cup race but not out of competitive motivation. Atlanta's second-half stretch of the regular season begins here, and the habits that define a team's identity do not switch off because the tournament bracket has closed.

Toronto is 7-6 overall and 2-2 in Cup play, carrying the specific pain of Friday night's 86-85 loss to Washington that ended on Sonia Citron's fadeaway jumper at the buzzer. The Tempo trailed by 13 points entering the fourth quarter, rallied to take a one-point lead in the waning moments, and then watched Citron's shot go through. Toronto shot 48% from the field and had 27 points from Marina Mabrey and 20 from Brittney Sykes, but the collapse of the supporting cast behind that backcourt duo was the specific competitive failure that cost the Tempo the game. Sunday is the response game, at home, against an Atlanta team that is deeper and more physical than any opponent Toronto has faced in recent weeks.

The Cup standings make Sunday's result consequential for Toronto. The Tempo are 2-2 in Cup play and tied with Washington for the fourth and fifth positions in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta is out of Cup contention, which can sap a sliver of urgency even though the result still counts in the regular-season standings. That urgency gap is the most important variable in this matchup: Toronto needs a Cup win to stay in the bracket conversation, while Atlanta is playing for regular-season momentum and habits rather than tournament advancement. That asymmetry gives the Dream an interesting competitive profile where their effort level may not match the full-throttle approach that Toronto brings.

The -6.5 spread and -265 moneyline imply 73% win probability for Atlanta, which reflects the Dream's talent advantage and recent Cup form. If the Dream win the glass decisively, the 6.5 looks very beatable; if Toronto speeds the game up and steals possessions, the back-door becomes a live threat. Mabrey and Sykes combined for 47 points on Friday while the rest of the team contributed 38 total. If the Tempo can sustain that backcourt production and add even one or two other contributors, they have the offensive floor to keep this competitive.

Toronto wins if Mabrey and Sykes sustain the individual offensive production that has defined the Tempo's Cup performances, the pace of the game pushes toward 80 possessions and allows Toronto's transition attack to generate the easy baskets that their halfcourt sets have not consistently produced, and the home crowd at Coca-Cola Coliseum generates the kind of energy that has been a factor in Toronto's most important wins this month.

Atlanta wins if Howard and Gray reproduce the defensive performance that has held every Eastern Conference ball handler below their season averages this month, Reese dominates the glass and limits Toronto's second-chance opportunities while generating Atlanta's own, and the Dream's depth advantage produces the consistent second-half scoring from multiple contributors that Toronto's supporting cast has not been able to generate.

Prediction: Atlanta -6.5. The Dream are the more talented team with the better Cup record and a defensive pairing in Howard and Gray that specifically limits the kind of guard-heavy offense Toronto runs. Computer models project Atlanta at approximately 73% win probability, consistent with the -265 moneyline. Toronto's home court and the urgency advantage are real factors. But Atlanta's rebounding edge through Reese and the defensive discipline that held every Cup opponent below their averages are the structural advantages that make the 6.5 defensible. Dream win and cover.

Washington Mystics @ New York Liberty | 7:30pm ET | Prime Video

The stakes are real for New York: a single win, or an Indiana loss, clinches their share of the Commissioner's Cup crown in the Eastern Conference. The Liberty are 4-0 in Cup play with a +32 point differential, the Eastern Conference's undefeated leader since pool play began. Sunday at Barclays Center gives New York the chance to seal the East's championship game berth at home, in front of the crowd that has been the Liberty's most consistent competitive advantage all month. The -12.5 spread has climbed from its opening of 9.5, some books showing 10.5, which reflects the market's assessment of both teams' recent trajectories and the specific stakes the Liberty are playing for.

After dropping the first three games of their season-long seven-game homestand, the Liberty closed it out with four straight wins, including victories over the Tempo and Fever to begin Cup play. The Liberty's 104-90 win over Atlanta on Thursday, built on a 59-45 edge over the middle two quarters, was the kind of performance that validated the market's confidence in New York as the Eastern Conference Cup favorite. Sabrina Ionescu's facilitation, Breanna Stewart's frontcourt dominance, and Jonquel Jones's interior efficiency give the Liberty the three-piece organizational foundation that championship teams are built around. Barclays Center on a Sunday with the Cup clinch on the line is the most charged environment New York has played in all month.

Washington is 5-6 overall and 2-2 in Cup play, having just beaten Toronto on a Citron buzzer beater on Friday to keep their own Cup hopes alive. The Mystics won the opening game of the tournament against the Chicago Sky and then lost back-to-back games, while the New York Liberty defeated the expansion team, which later won two games in a row. Citron's individual Cup performance has been the Eastern Conference's most surprising development of the tournament, and the Mystics beat the Tempo to stay relevant in the bracket. But Sunday's road game in Brooklyn against a Liberty team playing for a Cup clinch is the steepest road the Mystics have faced in Cup play. Washington's net rating of -5.0 is bottom-five in the league, and the 12.5-point spread reflects a talent gap that Citron's individual production has occasionally obscured but never eliminated.

The market's movement from 9.5 to 12.5 tells you something: sharp money has come in on New York, and the Cup clinch motivation is being priced into a number that has grown with the action. Washington plus the number is the contrarian angle the Tony's Picks panel noted, with some uncertainty about whether the Liberty can maintain defensive focus over 40 minutes against a Mystics team that will push pace and take the kind of contested shots that occasionally go in against organized defenses in games with large spreads.

Washington wins if Citron produces another high-scoring Cup performance and forces the Liberty into the kind of individual coverage decisions that open up Irafen's interior opportunities, the Mystics push pace and generate the kind of early transition looks that prevent New York from setting its halfcourt defensive scheme, and the 12.5-point number proves too large for a Liberty team managing the emotional weight of a clinch game without the urgency of a must-win environment.

New York wins if Ionescu facilitates at the level that has made the Liberty the Cup's most efficient Eastern Conference offense, Stewart and Jones impose frontcourt dominance that limits Washington to the halfcourt possessions where Citron's creation is the Mystics' only reliable offensive mode, and Barclays Center delivers the home energy that a Cup clinch on a Sunday national window generates from one of the league's most engaged fan bases.

Prediction: New York -12.5. The Liberty are the better team in their building with the Cup clinch motivation driving the effort level for 40 minutes. Computer models project New York at approximately 84% win probability, consistent with the -650 moneyline. Citron will score and Washington will keep this competitive through the first quarter. New York's organizational depth and the specific intensity that a Cup clinch generates separate this game by the third quarter. Liberty win, but do not cover.

The Liberty-Mystics game is Sunday's defining moment: New York clinching the Eastern Conference Commissioner's Cup berth at Barclays Center is the result the tournament has been building toward since pool play began, and the +32 Cup point differential that the Liberty carry into Sunday means they are the East's most dominant Cup team by every metric. The Dream-Tempo game is the day's competitive undercard with real regular-season standing implications. Toronto's response to Friday's buzzer-beater loss against a Dream team with urgency questions is the Cup's most interesting smaller-scale storyline, and Mabrey's individual performance is the variable that most changes the game's competitive frame.