Two games Monday. Dallas hosts Seattle in a matchup the market has as the most lopsided of the week, with the Wings favored by 12.5 at home over a Storm team that is 3-6, missing Dominique Malonga, and still without Ezi Magbegor. Then Minnesota travels to Phoenix in the more competitive game of the evening, where the Lynx are 6-2 and the Mercury are 2-7 and running out of ways to explain the record. Here's what to watch.

Seattle Storm @ Dallas Wings | 7:00pm ET | Victory+, KFAA

Dallas is 5-3 and playing with the full offensive roster that makes the Wings one of the Western Conference's more dangerous teams. Arike Ogunbowale is back and healthy, Paige Bueckers continues to develop into one of the league's best second-year players, and Azzi Fudd gives the Wings the perimeter spacing that makes their three-guard offensive core genuinely difficult to guard simultaneously. The 12.5-point spread at home is the market's acknowledgment that this is not a competitive matchup on paper, and the -800 moneyline implies 89% win probability. College Park Center has been a real home-court advantage for the Wings in their best performances, and Seattle arrives without two of its most important players.

Seattle is 3-6 and operating in the most difficult personnel situation of any team on Monday's slate. Ezi Magbegor has not played a game this season due to a right foot injury, leaving the Storm without their primary rim protector all month. Malonga is sidelined with a concussion, which removes the one interior development that had given Seattle's frontcourt some credibility in recent weeks. Flau'jae Johnson remains the Storm's most consistent offensive contributor, and the first-round pick has shown enough individual production to signal that her long-term profile in this league is real. But individual production from the perimeter is not a structural answer for a team allowing 50.4% from two-point range because its interior is depleted. Against a Dallas offense that attacks the paint and converts in transition, that defensive gap is the number the spread is built around.

The game within the game is Ogunbowale against Seattle's perimeter defenders, who have been unable to consistently contain ball-dominant guards all season. Ogunbowale's creation off movement and pull-up mid-range shooting is specifically the offensive mode that has given Seattle trouble in every game where the opponent had a primary guard creator. Bueckers alongside Ogunbowale gives Dallas two creators operating simultaneously, and the load-balancing that Jose Fernandez's system generates with Fudd as a third shooting threat makes single-coverage on any one Dallas player an insufficient defensive plan.

Seattle wins if Johnson produces one of those individual offensive performances that lifts the Storm's ceiling beyond what the personnel situation implies, the Storm's defensive discipline limits Dallas's transition opportunities and forces the Wings into extended halfcourt possessions where turnovers become possible, and the 12.5-point number is large enough that Seattle covers without winning, which has been the Storm's most realistic path in this matchup.

Dallas wins if Ogunbowale and Bueckers generate the offensive efficiency that their combined profile demands, the Wings' transition attack exploits Seattle's interior gaps early and builds a lead large enough to force the Storm into a pace they cannot sustain, and College Park Center delivers the home energy that has been a consistent factor in Dallas's wins this season.

Prediction: Dallas -12.5. The Wings are healthy, at home, against a Storm team missing two key frontcourt players and shooting 41.4% from the field for the season. Computer models project Dallas at approximately 89% win probability, consistent with the -800 moneyline. Seattle has covered in difficult spots before and Johnson can score. But the structural gap is too significant to overcome for 40 minutes against a complete Dallas roster. Wings win and cover.

Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury | 9:00pm ET | WNBA League Pass

Minnesota is 6-2 and one of the league's most impressive early-season stories. The Lynx have built a genuine winning record while missing three frontcourt players, with Napheesa Collier's return from ankle surgery still upcoming. Natasha Howard has been the interior anchor, Olivia Miles has grown into the primary playmaker role faster than any reasonable rookie projection assumed, and Kayla McBride's perimeter shooting continues to give Minnesota the spacing that makes the Lynx's halfcourt offense functional without their best player. A 6-2 record without Collier is not a small achievement. It is the kind of performance that changes what you expect from this team when she returns.

Phoenix is 2-7 and approaching the point in the season where the record stops being an early-season sample-size question and starts becoming a definition. The Mercury beat Las Vegas on opening night in one of the season's best results, and nothing since has replicated that level. Alyssa Thomas remains the structural anchor: the pace control, the distributing from the high post, and the interior scoring that keeps Phoenix competitive even on off nights. Kahleah Copper has been inconsistent throughout the month, and the perimeter depth that the Mercury need alongside Thomas's interior work has not materialized with the reliability the roster suggested it would. At 2-7, Phoenix is the league's second-worst record, and Monday's home game against a 6-2 Minnesota team that is playing the best basketball of any team not named Atlanta is not the easiest path to a third win.

The specific matchup concern for Phoenix is Howard against Thomas on the interior. Howard has been averaging 14.0 points in the paint per game and Thomas is the league's best pace-controlling interior player. Both players anchor their team's offensive and defensive identity, and the game between those two in the post is the competitive question that the spread does not fully eliminate. Minnesota is -3.5 on the road, which implies a close game, and Thomas gives Phoenix the individual capability to keep this competitive through three quarters.

Phoenix wins if Thomas controls the pace and limits Minnesota's ability to generate the transition opportunities that Howard and Miles have been exploiting against slower-rotating defenses, Copper connects from the perimeter at the rate her profile demands and gives Phoenix the secondary offensive option that takes defensive pressure off Thomas's post catches, and Footprint Center delivers the home-court energy that has been a genuine factor in the Mercury's two wins this season.

Minnesota wins if Howard continues her interior dominance and generates the second-chance scoring that has defined Minnesota's offensive floor all season, Miles operates at the playmaking level that has made her one of the more impressive rookie performances of the month, and the Lynx's defensive discipline limits Thomas's distribution opportunities enough to prevent the Mercury from finding the rhythm that their halfcourt sets require.

Prediction: Minnesota -3.5. The Lynx are the more complete team and have covered on the road consistently this season. Computer models project Minnesota at approximately 59% win probability, consistent with the -162 moneyline. Phoenix has Thomas and home court, both of which are real factors, and the 2-7 record understates how competitive the Mercury have been in individual games. But a 6-2 team traveling to face a 2-7 team is a position the market prices correctly. Lynx win and cover.

The Wings-Storm game is the most structurally settled result on Monday's slate, with the -800 moneyline saying everything about how the market views a Dallas roster at full strength against a Seattle team playing its most difficult personnel situation of the season. The Lynx-Mercury game is the one worth tracking for what it tells us: Minnesota without Collier has earned this record, and a road win in Phoenix against Thomas would be another piece of evidence that this team is ready to contend when its best player returns.