Los Angeles Sparks @ Atlanta Dream | 7:00 PM ET | WNBA League Pass

Atlanta is 13-10 and 4-6 in the last ten, the East's sixth seed, and the Dream are -7.5 favorites at -345 against a Los Angeles team that is 10-11 and 5-5 in the last ten, the West's ninth seed. The total at 180.5 is the higher of Monday's two games, reflecting what both offenses can generate against defenses that have shown inconsistency for stretches this season.

Atlanta's Angel Reese and Rhyne Howard remain the engines of the Dream's offense, and a home game against a Los Angeles team with a middling road record represents an opportunity for Atlanta to build momentum heading into the stretch run. State Farm Arena has generally been a difficult environment for visiting teams, and the Dream's interior size advantage against the Sparks' frontcourt is the structural factor that should carry Atlanta through most of this game.

Kelsey Plum remains Los Angeles's most reliable scoring option, and her ability to control tempo against Atlanta's perimeter defenders gives the Sparks their most credible path to keeping this respectable. Los Angeles has shown flashes of the offensive upside that comes with Plum operating at her best, but a 7.5-point spread against a Dream team playing at home is a real gap to close on the road.

Los Angeles wins if Plum has one of her more efficient scoring nights of the season, Los Angeles's perimeter shooters build on any recent offensive rhythm, and Atlanta shows any signs of inconsistency that has occasionally crept into their game this season.

Atlanta wins if Reese and Howard combine for the kind of two-player dominance that has defined Atlanta's best performances, the Dream's interior size advantage controls the glass against a smaller Los Angeles frontcourt, and Atlanta treats Monday as the professional home win a team with their talent level should deliver.

Prediction: Atlanta -7.5. The Dream have the talent and size advantage at home, and Los Angeles's road form this season has been inconsistent enough to make this spread a reasonable one. Computer models project Atlanta at approximately 78% win probability, consistent with the -345 moneyline. The over at 180.5 is the live market call if both offenses get rolling early. Dream win and cover.

Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx | 9:00 PM ET | Peacock

Minnesota is 17-6 and 7-3 in the last ten, the West's top seed, and the Lynx are massive -12.5 favorites at -800 against a Phoenix team that is 8-16 and 4-6 in the last ten, the West's 12th seed. The total at 169.5 reflects what Minnesota's offense can generate against a Phoenix defense that has struggled against elite competition, and it comes one night after Kayla McBride caught fire from three-point range to lift the Lynx past New York on Saturday.

Minnesota's collective depth and defensive infrastructure have carried the Lynx to the West's top seed all season, and McBride's shooting performance against the Liberty is exactly the kind of secondary scoring that has made this roster so difficult to beat regardless of matchup. The Lynx's ball movement and perimeter shooting have been elite in recent weeks, and a home game against a Phoenix team allowing significant points to quality opponents projects as one of the more comfortable nights on Minnesota's schedule.

Kahleah Copper remains Phoenix's most reliable scoring option, and her individual efficiency will need to be at its best for the Mercury to keep this respectable against one of the league's most complete rosters. A 12.5-point spread is one of the largest of the week, and Phoenix's recent defensive struggles against elite competition make covering a significant challenge on the road.

Phoenix wins if Copper has one of her best individual scoring performances of the season, Phoenix's perimeter defenders limit Minnesota's three-point volume after McBride's big night Saturday, and the Lynx show any signs of a letdown against a significantly overmatched opponent.

Minnesota wins if McBride and the Lynx's perimeter shooters carry their momentum from Saturday's win over New York, Minnesota's defensive pressure forces the kind of turnovers that have made Phoenix's offense vulnerable against elite competition, and the Lynx treat Monday as a professional dispatching of a significantly weaker opponent.

Prediction: Minnesota -12.5. The talent gap is significant and the Lynx are playing with real confidence after Saturday's win. Computer models project Minnesota at approximately 88% win probability, close to the -800 moneyline. The under at 169.5 is worth watching if Minnesota's starters are pulled early in a blowout. Lynx win and cover.