New York Liberty @ Toronto Tempo | 3:00 PM ET | ESPN/Disney+

New York is 13-10 and 4-6 in the last ten, the East's sixth seed, and the Liberty are -7.5 favorites at -278 in a game being played at Bell Centre in Montreal as part of the Tempo's inaugural season slate. Toronto is 9-13 and 2-8 in the last ten, the East's 11th seed, and the total at 175.5 reflects what New York's offense can generate against a Tempo team that has struggled defensively for most of the season.

New York continues to navigate its season without Satou Sabally, who remains out indefinitely in concussion protocol since June 23, but Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones give the Liberty enough frontcourt firepower to control most interior matchups regardless of the setting. Sabrina Ionescu's perimeter game has been trending upward, and a neutral-site environment in Montreal adds a unique wrinkle to a game that otherwise projects as a comfortable Liberty win on paper.

Toronto's 2-8 last-ten form reflects the growing pains of an inaugural roster facing a difficult stretch of the schedule, and Marina Mabrey's perimeter scoring remains the Tempo's most reliable individual weapon. The neutral-site atmosphere in Montreal could work in Toronto's favor if the crowd embraces the Tempo as a de facto home team, but the talent gap between these two rosters is significant regardless of venue.

Toronto wins if Mabrey has an outlier scoring performance that keeps the Tempo within striking distance, the neutral-site atmosphere in Montreal provides an unexpected energy boost, and New York shows any signs of a letdown in a game many will view as a formality.

New York wins if Stewart and Jones combine for the interior dominance that has been the Liberty's offensive floor all season, Ionescu continues her recent shooting rhythm, and New York treats Sunday as the professional win that a roster with championship pedigree should deliver regardless of venue.

Prediction: New York -7.5. The talent gap is significant and the Liberty should be able to impose their will regardless of the neutral-site setting. Computer models project New York at approximately 74% win probability, consistent with the -278 moneyline. The over at 175.5 is the live market call if New York's offense gets rolling early. Liberty win and cover.

Seattle Storm @ Washington Mystics | 3:00 PM ET | ESPN/Disney+

Washington is 10-10 and 6-4 in the last ten, the East's eighth seed, and the Mystics are -4.5 favorites at -180 against a Seattle team that is 6-18 and 3-7 in the last ten, the West's 14th seed. The total at 159.5 is the lowest on Sunday's card, a signal that both defenses are expected to control tempo in a game between two teams looking to build positive momentum.

Washington's interior duo of Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen has been the foundation of the Mystics' recent competitive stretch, and their ability to control the glass against Seattle's frontcourt is the structural advantage that should carry Washington through most of this game. Georgia Amoore's perimeter scoring adds a complementary dimension that has made Washington considerably more difficult to defend in recent weeks.

Dominique Malonga's recent individual form has given Seattle a legitimate interior threat that makes the Storm more competitive than their record suggests, and if she's aggressive early against Washington's frontcourt, the Storm have shown they can hang with quality opponents. But Washington's overall depth and home environment make this a difficult spot for Seattle to find its second win in as many tries against a team playing with momentum.

Seattle wins if Malonga continues her recent stretch of dominant interior performances, Flau'jae Johnson provides enough perimeter scoring to keep the Storm's offense multi-dimensional, and Washington shows any signs of inconsistency that has occasionally crept into their game this season.

Washington wins if Austin and Iriafen control the interior and limit Malonga's post touches, Amoore generates the kind of perimeter scoring volume that has made the Mystics more dangerous recently, and Washington's home crowd provides the energy that has made CareFirst Arena a difficult environment for visiting teams.

Prediction: Washington -4.5. The Mystics have the better roster depth and home environment, and their recent form suggests a team playing with real confidence. Computer models project Washington at approximately 65% win probability, consistent with the -180 moneyline. The under at 159.5 is the more defensible market call. Mystics win and cover.

Chicago Sky @ Dallas Wings | 7:00 PM ET | NBC/Peacock

Dallas is 15-8 and 7-3 in the last ten, the West's fourth seed and one of the league's most dangerous offensive rosters behind Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale, and Azzi Fudd. The Wings are -9.5 favorites at -440, implying approximately 81% win probability against a Chicago team that is 7-15 and 3-7 in the last ten, the East's 13th seed. The total at 177.5 reflects what Dallas's three-guard attack can generate against a Chicago defense that has struggled for most of the season.

Chicago's recent turbulence, including Skylar Diggins's benching earlier in the week, adds real uncertainty to how competitive the Sky can be against one of the West's most dangerous offensive rosters. If Diggins is back in her normal role, her individual scoring efficiency gives Chicago its best chance to keep this respectable. If the rotation questions continue, Dallas's offensive advantages compound quickly.

Dallas has been one of the best stories of the second half of the season, and Bueckers, Ogunbowale, and Fudd generating simultaneously has made the Wings one of the most watchable teams in the league. American Airlines Center has been a difficult environment for visiting teams, and Dallas's 7-3 last-ten form suggests a roster playing with real confidence heading into the stretch run.

Chicago wins if Diggins returns to her role as the offense's primary shot creator and has one of her better scoring nights, Chicago's role players outperform their season averages, and Dallas shows any signs of complacency against a significantly weaker opponent.

Dallas wins if Bueckers, Ogunbowale, and Fudd all generate offense simultaneously, the Wings' perimeter shooting forces Chicago into defensive rotations it cannot sustain, and Dallas continues building the kind of playoff positioning momentum that has defined their recent stretch.

Prediction: Dallas -9.5. The talent gap is significant and Dallas is playing its best basketball of the season. Computer models project Dallas at approximately 81% win probability, consistent with the -440 moneyline. The over at 177.5 is the live market call if Dallas's three-guard attack is clicking early. Wings win and cover.

Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces | 9:00 PM ET | NBC/Peacock

Las Vegas is 17-6 and 7-3 in the last ten, the West's top seed, and the Aces are -5.5 favorites at -225 in the WNBA's first-ever Sunday Night Basketball broadcast. Indiana is 13-9 and 6-4 in the last ten, the East's fifth seed, and the total at 182.5 is the highest of Sunday's card. This is a rematch of last season's semifinals, which Las Vegas won 3-2, and it follows one of the most lopsided results of the season: A'ja Wilson's Aces routed Phoenix 106-58 on Saturday, with Wilson posting 21 points and 15 rebounds in just 25 minutes.

Wilson's performance Saturday was a reminder of just how dominant Las Vegas can be when everything clicks, and the Aces enter Sunday's national showcase playing as well as any team in the league. Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray provide the backcourt stability that has made Las Vegas one of the most consistent rosters in the WNBA, and Michelob ULTRA Arena has been an extremely difficult environment for visiting teams all season.

Clark's continued two-way development has made Indiana a legitimately dangerous team on any given night, and this matchup carries genuine playoff atmosphere given last season's five-game semifinal series between these two rosters. Aliyah Boston's interior presence and Kelsey Mitchell's perimeter scoring give the Fever the supporting cast to make this competitive, and Indiana's 6-4 last-ten form suggests a team playing with confidence heading into the league's newest national showcase.

Indiana wins if Clark controls the pace with the two-way efficiency that has made her one of the league's most complete guards, Boston wins enough interior possessions against Las Vegas's frontcourt to generate second-chance opportunities, and Mitchell's perimeter shooting forces the Aces into defensive rotations that account for both her and Clark simultaneously.

Las Vegas wins if Wilson carries her Saturday form into the second half of a back-to-back and continues her MVP-level play, Young and Gray limit Clark's transition opportunities and force Indiana into a half-court pace that favors Las Vegas's superior depth, and the Aces treat Sunday Night Basketball's debut as the signature national moment their championship pedigree is built for.

Prediction: Las Vegas -5.5. Wilson is playing the best basketball of anyone in the league right now, and the Aces at home have been nearly unbeatable this season. Computer models project Las Vegas at approximately 69% win probability, tighter than the -225 moneyline given the second half of a back-to-back. Clark's national-stage ceiling makes Indiana live throughout. The over at 182.5 is the most actionable market on Sunday's card. Aces win, but may not cover.